NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
438 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2004
KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-291100-
ANDERSON-BROWN-CLAY-CLOUD-COFFEY-DICKINSON-DOUGLAS-FRANKLIN-GEARY-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LYON-MARSHALL-MORRIS-NEMAHA-OSAGE-OTTAWA-
POTTAWATOMIE-REPUBLIC-RILEY-SHAWNEE-WABAUNSEE-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABILENE...CLAY CENTER...CONCORDIA...
EMPORIA...HIAWATHA...JUNCTION CITY...LAWRENCE...MANHATTAN...
MARYSVILLE...OTTAWA AND TOPEKA
438 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2004
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.
.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHTNING WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND ACROSS
FAR EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. SOME OF
THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.
&&
MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/TOP (ALL LOWER CASE)
$$
SPC AC 281732
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2004
VALID 291200Z - 011200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE
TXK 35 SSE GGG 45 WNW LFK 55 ENE ACT DAL 15 SW DUA 35 W MLC 55 E OKC
15 S PNC 30 ESE P28 DDC 40 NNE GCK 20 WSW HLC 55 SSW HSI 35 E CNK 10
WNW TOP 25 SW OJC 60 N JLN 20 WSW SGF 15 NW HRO 50 E FSM 20 WNW HOT
30 ENE TXK.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE PBF 45 NNW BPT
30 W HOU 30 NNW VCT 15 E SAT 35 NNW HDO 20 N JCT 25 NE SJT 50 NW ABI
40 S CDS 40 NNE CDS 25 NNW GAG 10 ESE LBL 30 SSW LAA 25 NNW LHX 35 E
DEN 35 ESE FCL 40 SSW BFF 15 E AIA 35 E MHN 40 NNE BUB 20 SSW YKN 20
SE FSD 25 NNE OTG 30 SE RWF 15 N MKT 35 NW LSE 25 ESE LSE 20 SW MSN
10 ESE RFD 25 SW MMO 10 NW DEC 20 NNW MDH 40 WNW DYR 55 WSW MEM 40
SSE PBF.
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF KS/OK/AR AND
NERN TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
POWERFUL MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING EWD ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES
TONIGHT AND THEN EMERGE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
IN RESPONSE TO THIS UPPER LEVEL FORCING...LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS WILL
BE WELL UNDERWAY BY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS WITH AN
EXTENSIVE WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT AND 50-70KT LLJ SITUATED FROM TX
NWD TO ERN NEB. A TROUGH OF THIS MAGNITUDE CAN EASILY PROMPT THE
ISSUANCE OF HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. HOWEVER...GIVEN RECENT
STRONG CP/DRY AIRMASS INTRUSIONS INTO THE GULF...THE LOWER QUALITY
OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BEING TAPPED BY THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL
TEND TO OFFSET THE THREAT FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT.
...OK/AR/NERN TX...
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN ADVERTISING A
STRONGLY FORCED LINEAR MCS FROM NRN/CNTRL OK INTO NRN TX BY SUNDAY
MORNING. INTENSE DEEP LAYER ASCENT BENEATH STRONGLY DIFFLUENT EXIT
REGION OF 125KT 300MB JET WILL ACT TO MAINTAIN A MOIST ABSOLUTELY
UNSTABLE LAYER IN PROXIMITY TO THE SQUALL LINE WITH MUCAPE IN THIS
LAYER ON THE ORDER OF 150-300 J/KG. MID LEVEL AIR PARCEL
TRAJECTORIES FROM OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST TX AND NRN MEXICO
SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND A CHANCE FOR A COUPLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL REPORTS WITHIN
THE SQUALL LINE EARLY IN THE PERIOD FROM SWRN INTO CNTRL OK.
DESPITE RELATIVELY COOL BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF THE LINE...ONLY A
WEAK SURFACE INVERSION IS INDICATED BY FCST SOUNDINGS. THIS
INVERSION SHOULD FURTHER WEAKEN WITH DIURNAL HEATING ACROSS ERN
OK...NERN TX...AND WRN AR DURING THE AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND RESULTANT SHEAR ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL THE SQUALL
LINE WILL SUSTAIN STORM ORGANIZATION AND THE CHANCE FOR SMALL SCALE
BOWS/LEWPS FORMING WITHIN THE LINE. THUS...A WIND AND HAIL HAZARD
SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE SQUALL LINE AS IT DEVELOPS EWD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING.
...KS...
STRONG MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION AND DYNAMIC COOLING WILL SPREAD
ACROSS SWRN AND CNTRL KS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW LIFTS
ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT AN AXIS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY /MLCAPE
300-600 J/KG/ MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SCNTRL TO CNTRL KS. GIVEN POTENTIAL
FOR PERSISTENT/STRONG BACKGROUND ASCENT WITHIN CYCLONIC LEFT EXIT
REGION OF MID/UPPER JET...AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
30-45KT...A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE WILL
BE POSSIBLE.
..CARBIN.. 02/28/2004
...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0800Z
CAN TOPEKA GET STORMS???? We will find out!