1st Big Severe Event On The Way For TX Elsewhere!

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1st Big Severe Event On The Way For TX Elsewhere!

#1 Postby Guest » Mon Mar 01, 2004 9:13 pm

Looks as if by Thursday a new strong low will be moving out of the sw headed for Western TX BUT unlike the storm that just passed this one will be a bit stronger and a bit farther to the south bringing up more moisture (higher dews) and as well have more cold air to work with and with all these dynamics comming together along with a few others (dry line)this is setting up to what could be the first significant severe weather event of the season for alot of TX and then OK and as well areas farther to the ene up towards the TN/OH Valley's and others areas of the deep south into the se.

Already today i have notced spc has alot of TX in the 25% range for severe wx on day 3 which tells me they are expecting something big from this because usually the bigger events only will have the 25% risk for severe weather on a spc map at day 3. Thats my thought on spc on how they may be looking at this.

Either way TX looks to be ground zero for this event come wed night and Thursday. Check back in for more updates on this.

Be ready Chasers as this is looking to be a very good chase event.
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#2 Postby wx247 » Mon Mar 01, 2004 9:27 pm

Agreed... this is a very chaseable event. It will cover a large area, too.
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Suzi Q

#3 Postby Suzi Q » Tue Mar 02, 2004 5:49 am

I had seen this on one of the models posted last week on an extreme chaser board I belong to. They were telling me to skip chem class THIS Wednesday LAST WEEK but I didn't put a whole lot of water into it given the models being so far out and the unreliability on ANY model lately. But now that I have Harry's stamp of approval I will pay a little more attention. Can't skip class tomorrow, now that I'm finally understanding a bit more. Harry-got an eta on this so I can plan my day a little?

AND SO IT BEGINS-SAY IT WITH ME YA'LL-


TWISTER DANCE!!!!!
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#4 Postby TexasStooge » Tue Mar 02, 2004 8:47 am

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
500 AM CST TUE MAR 2 2004

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-031200-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE REGION BOUNDED BY INTERSTATE 20 ON THE NORTH AND INTERSTATE 35
ON THE EAST. LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS IN THIS REGION.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MAIN THREAT REGION LOCATED ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL POSE THE
GREATEST THREATS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH
TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS POSING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT THREATS EACH DAY. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL END FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
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#5 Postby Guest » Tue Mar 02, 2004 2:00 pm

Suzi Q wrote:I had seen this on one of the models posted last week on an extreme chaser board I belong to. They were telling me to skip chem class THIS Wednesday LAST WEEK but I didn't put a whole lot of water into it given the models being so far out and the unreliability on ANY model lately. But now that I have Harry's stamp of approval I will pay a little more attention. Can't skip class tomorrow, now that I'm finally understanding a bit more. Harry-got an eta on this so I can plan my day a little?

AND SO IT BEGINS-SAY IT WITH ME YA'LL-


TWISTER DANCE!!!!!


Looks like alot of us including myself will be doing this dance as this system is gonna be affecting alot of us from TX on Wed/Thur up to here Thur/Fri.

I still say that Thursday looks to be the best day for this for you and alot of others from the southern Plains/TX/LA Gulfcoast up into the western TN/OH Valley's and parts of the Midwest.

Tomorrow looks to be very good for Western/Central/Northern TX and Southern and eastern OK.

I will keep updating on this and more so as we get closer to the event.
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Suzi Q

#6 Postby Suzi Q » Tue Mar 02, 2004 3:13 pm

I agree that Thursday looks to be my day of reckoning, with Wednesday the day my daughter might see some fun (although she does not view it as such). I'll start keeping a very close watch come EARLY Thursday morning (i.e. from midnight on). I did note that our forecast this morning called for highs in the upper 70's with a 60% shot at severe weather, or as one of our local mets said "NON-DRILL type severe outbreak" for Thursday. In the meantime, I'm continuing to practice my twister dance. JUST IN CASE!!!!!
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#7 Postby therock1811 » Tue Mar 02, 2004 3:15 pm

I am concerned about this as well, however originally my worry was heavy rain...we had about half an inch to 3/4" last night...ground is saturated...not good! Also, I think this might have been a big jump of the gun here, but the CBS affiliate says 67° on friday...not good as far as severe potential goes, that will only increase it...
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