Severe Weather Eastern Seaboard...conflicting forecasts

[Anonymous]

As has been the case all week, the CPC and SPC have differences in their forecasts for severe weather for the south with the CPC once again being the most aggressive---at one point this week, the cpc labelled an area along the entire gulf coast and florida as having a severe wx threat... Not panned out so far, so we shall see... For the record, the SPC hasnt forecasted severe weather since the last system exited the east coast.
from the CPC...

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HAZARDS
 

Strong thunderstorms, along with their attendant hazards (heavy rain, localized floods, and strong damaging winds), are possible across the Eastern Seaboard states from Florida to southern New Jersey on March 15th.


The long-term drought continues in the West, with little relief expected during this Assessment period.
 
 

DETAILED SUMMARY


For Monday Mar 15 - Wednesday Mar 17, 2004: A well organized frontal system over the Ohio Valley and Appalachia is projected to slide off the Atlantic coast early Monday. Computer models have shown uncertainty as to the partitioning of energy between the Gulf States (with an associated subtropical jet and squall line), and the primary low pressure center heading northeastward through the Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes region (producing primarily rain). The possibility of strong storms extends from Florida northward to New Jersey. If the model guidance is correct, and the cold front sweeps off the coast before the time of maximum diurnal heating, that would help to limit the intensity of any strong thunderstorms that do form. Strong low-level southerly flow is forecast across this region in the warm sector, along with a negatively tilted upper trough.
 


From the SPC...

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DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0144 AM CST SAT MAR 13 2004
   
   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES
   ON MONDAY...WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN
   ROCKIES INTO THE MID MS VALLEY.  ETA/GFS SOLUTION DIFFER FOR THIS
   SYSTEM...WITH ETA SHOWING MORE AMPLITUDE AND GREATER LOW LEVEL
   CYCLOGENESIS OVER MO/KY.  THIS RESULTS IN A RATHER LARGE AREA OF
   CONVECTIVE PRECIP IN THE ETA OVER EASTERN OK/MO/AR/LA. IF THIS
   SCENARIO DEVELOPS...SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR AND MUCAPE VALUES
   AROUND 1000 J/KG WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE
   STORMS.  HOWEVER THE GFS SOLUTION SHOWS A WEAKER SYSTEM AND A LOWER
   POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTION.  DUE TO MODEL UNCERTAINTIES...
   WILL NOT OUTLOOK A SEVERE AREA AT THIS TIME.


[Stormless2003]

Does anyone know when the pattern will become conducive for storms in the central US? It seems like the dynamics have been lacking all year so far. I hope it isn't a sign of things to come...

[Guest]

Does anyone know when the pattern will become conducive for storms in the central US? It seems like the dynamics have been lacking all year so far. I hope it isn't a sign of things to come...

Its only March and we still have Apr thru June for a more active severe pattern which i think we will start to see come April especially out towards the Plains and the Midwest/OV. I for one think this is gonna be a very active season which i will get into more in the comming weeks.

Last year almost started out the same way and we all remember well what happend once May rolled around!

[george_r_1961]

Well doesnt look like there will be anything over VA at least..temps way too low and other conditions just not right. Then again its only March.

[ColdFront77]

Severe thunderstorms continue into July and August, the hottest time of the year and when dewpoint levels get quite high and remain high after some brief drier periods... of course the rainy season here in (central) Florida is the last week of May to mid October.