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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0213
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0134 PM CST THU MAR 25 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB/W CNTRL KS
CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS
VALID 251934Z - 252200Z
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IS INCREASING...BUT NEED
FOR WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED [b]AT THE PRESENT TIME.[/b]
SURFACE HEATING CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DESTABILIZE BOUNDARY LAYER IN
THE VICINITY OF SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IS
CONTRIBUTING TO DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF
EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WEST/SOUTHWEST OF NORFOLK INTO AREAS WEST OF
GRAND ISLAND...WHERE MID-LEVEL CAP IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN WITH
PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
THOUGH SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS RATHER WEAK/UNFOCUSED AND MID/UPPER
FORCING IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...WITH FURTHER SURFACE HEATING
CAP MAY WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY IN SPOTS FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WITH ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE INTO PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS BY AROUND
22Z.
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MEAN 100 MB
MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. HOWEVER...DUE TO
SOMEWHAT WEAK SHEAR AND CONTINUING PRESENCE OF WEAK CAPPING...
STRONGEST CELLS MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY LONG-LIVED.
..KERR.. 03/25/2004
PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...Code: Select all
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 PM CST THU MAR 25 2004
VALID 252000Z - 261200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW
FNB 20 S EAR 45 W RWF 15 WNW HIB 35 S ELO 45 W RHI 30 NNE ALO 35 NE
DSM 25 WSW FNB.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE
MRF 10 SE INK 20 WNW MAF 15 SSE MAF 55 ENE FST 25 WSW P07 65 SSE MRF
20 SSW MRF 40 NE MRF.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E PSX 10 SE CLL 30
SE TPL 40 WSW TPL 55 W AUS 15 N HDO 50 NW LRD ..CONT.. 65 WNW MRF
10 WSW INK 35 NW AMA 25 NE LAA 40 SSE AKO 35 N LIC 25 WSW LIC 25 NNW
RTN 45 ENE 4SL 45 WSW FMN 35 SE U24 60 S ENV 50 N BIH 55 ENE SCK 30
S RBL 55 SE EKA 25 SW EKA ..CONT.. 45 N FCA 20 SSW GTF 45 ESE BIL
15 S REJ 40 WNW PIR 35 NE PIR 45 SSE JMS 35 SSE GFK 25 NE TVF 20 E
RRT ..CONT.. 30 W CLE 15 E FDY 35 ENE MIE 45 SSW HUF 25 W CGI 25
SSW JBR 20 NW GLH 40 SSW GLH 40 ESE 7R4.
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM
THE WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO NEB...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
PORTIONS OF SWRN TX...
...WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO ERN NEB...
ISENTROPIC ASCENT INTO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET STREAK
OVER CNTRL CANADA HAS SUPPORTED ONGOING CLUSTERS OF MAINLY ELEVATED
STORMS THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OVER NRN/CNTRL
MN. THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY THUS FAR HAS REMAINED N OF SURFACE WARM
FRONT WHICH EXTENDED FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN SD EWD ACROSS CNTRL
PORTIONS OF MN/WI WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE ELEVATED AIRMASS PER
12Z OAX/MPX SOUNDINGS. EXPECT THIS REGIME TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS INTO NRN WI...HOWEVER
WEAKENING ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH EWD EXTENT MAY TEND TO LIMIT
LARGE HAIL THREAT.
FARTHER SW...EARLY AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CUMULIFORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT OVER CNTRL NEB ON
WRN EDGE OF CLOUD SHIELD WHERE AIRMASS HAS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE. CONTINUED HEATING/MOISTENING OF BOUNDARY-LAYER E OF
SURFACE FRONT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG.
MOREOVER...FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS SSWWD INTO CNTRL NEB SHOULD
ERODE CAP SUFFICIENTLY TO PROMOTE TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM VICINITY OF
SURFACE LOW SWWD ALONG FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODESTLY
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-45KTS SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED TSTMS
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. TSTMS
SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF SRN MN AND
NRN/WRN IA AS STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ ENHANCES CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD
FRONT.
FOR ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE MCD 213.
...KS SWD INTO WRN TX...
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS OF 55-60F HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS E OF DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS OF SWRN
TX NWD INTO WRN/CNTRL KS. ADDITIONALLY... REGIONAL VWPS INDICATE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE TX DRYLINE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY 25-35KTS OBSERVED IN THE 4-6KM AGL LAYER.
ALTHOUGH CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NO WELL DEFINED UPSTREAM
DISTURBANCE...DEEP MIXING ALONG DRYLINE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO LOCALLY
ERODE CAP AND INITIATE ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS. OVER SWRN
TX...OROGRAPHIC ASCENT WILL AID THIS PROCESS. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN
LARGELY DIURNAL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL
/ESPECIALLY OVER SWRN TX/ GIVEN THE MARGINALLY STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 30-35KTS. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE
MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY.
...CNTRL/ERN WY...
FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS ALLOWED A CLUSTER
OF TSTMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL WY /SE
OF RIW/. COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES OF AROUND -20C OBSERVED IN 12Z
RAOB DATA HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
CNTRL/ERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. TSTMS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON EWD THROUGH THE INSTABILITY AXIS AHEAD OF
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DEEPLY MIXED CHARACTER OF BOUNDARY LAYER
IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG WIND GUST
OR TWO WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE UPCOMING MCD 214.
..MEAD.. 03/25/2004
...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
Click the links below to go to previous bulletins.
Too much of a cap for anything but little elevated showers that produce virga.
