Reminds me of 1998!!!

[Guest]

We have been surrounded by rain, but not a drop here in Northeast Florida. In 1998, we had the same scenerio. Rain to the west moves east and splits as it approaches Northeast Florida. Rain to teh south, stays south, and rain to the north, stays north.
Now, the forecast after this rain across the South moves out, is for dry humidities and sunshine into next week.
We need rain folks, it's getiing very very dry here!
Heres our forecast from the NWS jacksonville, Fla.

Tonight. Mostly cloudy with a 60 percent chance of showers and isolated strong thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. South winds 10 to 15 mph.

Tuesday. Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms in the morning then partly cloudy in the afternoon. Becoming windy. Highs in the mid 70s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph increasing to 20 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph in the afternoon.

Tuesday night. Partly cloudy and cooler. Lows in the lower 40s. West winds 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday. Partly cloudy and breezy. Highs in the upper 60s. West winds 15 to 20 mph.

Wednesday night. Mostly clear and cool. Lows near 40. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.

Thursday. Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s.

Thursday night. Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s.

Friday through Saturday night. Mostly clear. Highs in the upper 70s. Lows around 50.

Sunday through Monday. Partly cloudy. Highs in the lower 80s. Lows in the mid 50s.

To top that off, we are still under a Fire Weather Watch:
FIRE WEATHER WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
300 PM EDT MON APR 12 2004

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-131000-
ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-
MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-
300 PM EDT MON APR 12 2004

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

DISCUSSION...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO BELOW
35 PERCENT FOR NEARLY 4 HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION THE 20
FOOT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS.


Now can we please have some rain? Lets hope that JB from Kansas doesn't see this!!!

[Josephine96]

Bob.. Try not to mention 1998 in the same sentence.. I was nearly killed in the tornado lol..

[LMolineux]

Arent they also putting out advisories for those T-storms that spawn off what they call Blue Lightning? Which can cause a brush fire?

[Guest]

It's refered to also as dry lightning. We did get some rain last night, but nothing that we were suppose to. Next chance for rain? Who knows, the models keep us in a dry pattern for a while.

[Anonymous]

Humidities in the 30%s and winds gusting to 35 really erase the .25in rain we received yesterday... Can look outside and see dust flying... We've only had .57in of rain this month and 8.02 for the year (4.19 below normal). The one thing I dont understand is the fact that the KDBI is not all that high-with the dry conditions, i would think it would be a lot higher... In 1998, the index was over 600 in the area. Of course, that year, we had an extemely wet (el nino) winter followed by a very dry late spring/early summer and by June-things had really turned ugly quick with fires everywhere...

Wildfire Forcing Evacuations

PUTNAM COUNTY, FL -- A wildfire is forcing evacuations in the southern part of the county.

The 25 acre wildfire is contained, but at one time threatened at least 29 mobile homes.

One abandoned trailer has burned down.

People who live at the southern entrance of the Whispering Pines Retirement Community are being asked to leave their homes. That's two miles east of 309 and one mile north of Georgetown Denver Road.

The Red Cross has opened a shelter for families at the recreational center for Whispering Pines.

The Department of Forestry has four tractors and a helicopter on the scene.

[/img]

[Stormsfury]

Humidities in the 30%s and winds gusting to 35 really erase the .25in rain we received yesterday... Can look outside and see dust flying... We've only had .57in of rain this month and 8.02 for the year (4.19 below normal). The one thing I dont understand is the fact that the KDBI is not all that high-with the dry conditions, i would think it would be a lot higher... In 1998, the index was over 600 in the area. Of course, that year, we had an extemely wet (el nino) winter followed by a very dry late spring/early summer and by June-things had really turned ugly quick with fires everywhere...

The reason why the KDBI indices are lower than you'd expect are for the fact that the ground moisture still remains although depleted somewhat. The biggest difference is .. that we've come through a recent wet spell, and also we're not suffering the prolonged and severe drought from mid-1998 through late 2002 ... Many locations after the fall of 2002 through the summer of 2003 were ranging anywhere between 60"-80" of precipitation with generally normal to ABV normal rainfalls through 2003, and many locations got off to a fairly wet start in 2004, so that led to a substantial ground moisture reserve.

SF

[Guest]

But if your look at the timing of 1998, and the drought indexes now, we are still in a very serious problem here in Florida. We will ahve to deal with these so called small fires, and hope for rain in June when our rainy season starts as the heat builds. If we don't get the rain, as we get the warmer temps, then we will see the drought indexes rise rather fast. Lets hope for rain, at least by June!!
As for that fire in Putnam County, it's just what I said, Putnam, Clay, St. John's, Duval, Nassau, Baker have all had fires so far this spring. Let the rain fall down!!!

[Stormsfury]

But if your look at the timing of 1998, and the drought indexes now, we are still in a very serious problem here in Florida. We will ahve to deal with these so called small fires, and hope for rain in June when our rainy season starts as the heat builds. If we don't get the rain, as we get the warmer temps, then we will see the drought indexes rise rather fast. Lets hope for rain, at least by June!!
As for that fire in Putnam County, it's just what I said, Putnam, Clay, St. John's, Duval, Nassau, Baker have all had fires so far this spring. Let the rain fall down!!!

The timing of the rains shutting off for most of Florida was much earlier than the rains completely shutting off for South Carolina ... after the May 1998 SVR/TORNADIC events, which was finalized by the Mother's Day Tornado that struck Summerville, and the other side of Ladson (tornado missed here by less than 5 miles), that was it ... La Niña rapidly replaced El Niño and the subtropical ridge that donimated Florida spread northward thus putting an end to the unusually wet 1998 winter in the Southeast.

I remember the donimant pattern really put a strangehold on the East Coast of Florida seabreezes particularly during the summer of 1998 due to strong westerly flow at the SFC. This in turn suppressed the normal diurnal convection from developing with the clash of the seabreezes, along with very high heights (warm nosing aloft - capped)...

SF

[Guest]

Well when I mentioned reminds me of 1998, I was actually refering to NE Florida. We have seen miniscul amounts of rain so far this year. Plus, we had a dry winter. On top of that, last year as well as 1998 we had a flooding event. Last year it was March 9. In 1998 it was in late February, where we received over 5" in 1 day. Then after that we had basically no rain to speak of. The problem we are facing here shows in the drought index. If we do not receive any significant amounts of rain in the next month, and the heat of May comes in, we will be prime for large scale fires. The one thing that is helping us is the cooler temps. This does allow the moisture to remain in the subsurface, whereas the surface dries out, hense the dusty conditions.
I lived in Southern Florida in the late 80's when the Everglades were on fire back then. Again, we have seen this already this year, and If I remember correctly, in 1998 we had these same fires in the Everglades.
personally, I live in a large forest type area. I have the Olustee State forest to my west a few miles, Osceolla not too far away either. The tributaries are still holding water like the Little St. Mary's River, but the St Mary's River at Baker County is below normal. The Okkeefenokee Swamp is teh head water to the St. Mary's, and from people I have spoke with say it's really dry up there too!
So for the region, NE Florida is turning into a tinderbox slowly, but once May gets here, and the temps remain warm, we will loose any moisture we have in teh ground.

[Stormsfury]

I gotcha now, BB ... drought begats drought and we're getting into the time of year that the only thing you can depend on are afternoon thunderstorms, but without a ground moisture recharge, moisture lacks to fire off convection. I looked at 7, 30, 60, and 90 day precip and anomalies, and frankly, it's quite startling and frightening.

Here's the rainfall from 4/2-4/8 below and go here for all rest of the information...

[Anonymous]

Well, if the CPC is correct, there will be little change through May, June, and July with drier than normal conditions across the state... Especially along the Gulf Coast.

Edit for IMG Link changed OK the CPC updated this map today so the link changed... Fla is still dry May, June, July

[Stormsfury]

I hate to say this, but that's a very non-commital map from CPC, basically stating equal chances across the U.S.

[Anonymous]

Hey!!!! they just changed it today Last night it was as i described and it was for MJJ not JJA. Lemme see if I can find the MJJ map again lol.