Tornado Watches Likely for Later (Upper MS Valley)

[Guest]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0367
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 PM CDT SUN APR 18 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NERN MN AND NWRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 181739Z - 181945Z

POTENTIALLY VOLATILE SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION WAS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.TORNADO WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEED ACROSS THE REGION IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER NERN SD...EAST
OF ABR...WITH VERY STRONG WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS CNTRL MN.
MEANWHILE...VERY STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 90-100KT
500MB WIND MAX WAS RACING NEWD FROM ERN CO/WRN NE AND WILL AID RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONES
THROUGH TONIGHT.

LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS SEEM TO
SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND SURFACE
LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AS INFLOW AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE WARM
FRONT INTENSIFIES. THIS ACTIVITY...SPREADING INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF
MN...WILL LIKELY ROTATE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL GIVEN VERY STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR JUXTAPOSED 8-9 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AS WARM FRONT/SURFACE LOW DEVELOP
NWD/NEWD...AND EXIT REGION OF POWERFUL MID/UPPER JET OVERSPREADS THE
WARM SECTOR... FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES COUPLED WITH
STRONG INSOLATION AND RAPID ELIMINATION OF THE CAP SHOULD RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS. FCST SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS NEAR THE LOW AND ALONG THE WARM FRONT ACROSS
MN SHOULD INITIALLY SUPPORT DISCRETE... POTENTIALLY
TORNADIC...STORMS ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS.

..CARBIN.. 04/18/2004

PLEASE SEE http://WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...

47189533 48499250 48059011 46499087 45859226 45099278
44719366 44889624 45519669 46309653

[WXBUFFJIM]

Very obvious when you combined extreme shear with extreme instability. There is alot of daytime heating going on in this area as a dry slot has moved into place. This is enhancing instability. No doubt this could be one of the more active tornado days of the year and would not be surprised to see a PDS watch or two issued out of this.

Great update NE. No doubt a potentially dangerous situation.

Jim

[Josephine96]

Sounds like things could get busy later.. I hope everyone stays safe.

I still remember the HWO's before the Central Florida Outbreak in 1998.. those were creepy

[michaelwmoss]

Will be watching that from here as well. Will have periodic updates on Indie Gospel Radio

Be Safe Out There Folks

[WXBUFFJIM]

Definitely be safe for sure because both the Duluth and Twin Cities forecast offices have issued SPS on this outbreak and both are concerned about the potential of strong to potentially violent tornadoes. All the forecasts I'm getting favor a dangerous and possibly deadly tornado outbreak in Minnesota later today. This will no doubt be the largest tornado outbreak of the year so far as almost everything is favorable.

Stay safe everyone.

Jim

[michaelwmoss]

I see what I think might be the start of the Outbreak. 2 small Supercell Storms over North Central MN.

The Jet Streak coming through this area is IMPRESSIVE. Definately be safe out there folks. Even with the weaker thunderstorms there is enough Jet Stream Energy to bring near 50+ MPH to the surface even outside of the storms