AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS Ft. Worth TX.

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
635 AM CDT TUE APR 20 2004

...CORRECTED TO INSTALL APPROPRIATE HEADER ABOVE TEMPERATURE AND POP
POINT FORECASTS...


THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FORECAST...AS OFTEN IS THE
CASE WHERE CONVECTION...AND A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE
CONCERNED. WE ARE RUNNING LATE...BECAUSE WE RAISED FIRST AND SECOND
PERIOD POPS A BIT...IN RESPONSE TO A LOCAL OFFICE ETA MODEL
RUN...WHICH SHOWED MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THAN EARLIER MODEL RUNS...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND
EAST OF I-35. WE HAVE THIS AREA (IN THE SPC'S SLIGHT RISK AREA
TODAY) TARGETED FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY...WITH
A FEW MORE COUNTIES TO THE WEST AND SOUTH INCLUDED TOMORROW. THE MAIN
THREATS APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THERE LIKELY WILL BE ANOTHER THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT THE INSTABILITIES WILL BE
HIGHER ON DAYS 2 AND 3 (WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY) THAN TODAY.
FURTHER...THE MESOSCALE MODELS PREDICT THAT SURFACE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON MAY BE A BIT MORE "VEERED" (DIRECTED FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST TODAY) BUT "BACKED" (DIRECTED
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHWEST) WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
LATTER EFFECT (ALONG WITH THE GREATER INSTABILITIES) SUGGESTS A
THREAT OF SUPERCELL STORMS. HOWEVER...THESE WIND AND INSTABILITY
FACTORS OFTEN DON'T SHOW THEIR TRUE HAND UNTIL THE EVENT UNFOLDS.
LOCALITIES GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CLEBURNE AREA SHOULD BE
AWARE OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AREAS
GENERALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 MAY SEE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF
SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY.

THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS WITH THE WEEKEND FORECAST. WE HAVE LEFT
A CHANCE OF RAIN LINGERING THROUGH A PORTION OF SATURDAY...
PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. TRENDS AND SEVERAL
ADDITIONAL MODELS RUNS WILL HELP TO SORT OUT THE WEEKEND WEATHER
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.

MOS LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED AGAIN. LACK OF WIDESPREAD HIGH
CLOUDS WILL HELP THE LOW CLOUDS SCATTER OUT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
AFTERNOONS...HELPING TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S.