STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF NERN TX..AR..NRN
LA..NRN/CENTRAL MS..WRN TN..NWRN AL...TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 NNW HSV 30 WNW BHM MEI 40 ENE HEZ 15 WSW ESF 10 E LFK
45 WNW LFK 15 W TYR 15 SE PRX 30 ENE PGO 40 ESE HRO ARG 35 NE MKL
15 NNW HSV.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 E PSX 45 SW CLL 50 SSE DAL 40 W MLC 20 ESE PNC 35 SSW EMP
40 SW OJC 20 S BLV 15 W OWB 45 E BNA 35 WNW ATL 40 S MCN AYS
25 NNE GNV 45 SSE CTY.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE CRP
30 ENE SAT 40 E SEP 30 SE END 10 E P28 55 W GCK 40 SE AKO 10 S CDR
35 NW PHP 25 SE MBG 15 NE BKX 40 NNE MLI 40 WNW HTS 25 S GSO
45 S EWN.
APPEARS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY
AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS
INTO THE LOWER/MID MS AND TN RIVER VALLEYS. LARGE UPPER LOW WILL
ONLY SLOWLY SHIFT NEWD FROM NM INTO OK...WITH VERY STRONG MID/UPPER
LEVEL JETS EXTENDING ALONG ITS SERN PERIPHERY. ETA/ETAKF/AVN ARE
ALL FORECASTING 120+ KT H25 /80-90 KT H5/ WINDS BY TUESDAY EVENING
OVER ERN TX...WHICH SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER E-CENTRAL TX
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NNEWD INTO NERN AR
OVERNIGHT...AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES NORTHEAST AND THEN
NWD FROM TX INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. IN ADDITION...SURFACE
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S SHOULD BE LIFTED AS FAR NWD AS SERN
AR/NRN MS/WRN TX/NRN AL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS SSELY LOW LEVEL
WINDS STRENGTHEN.
GIVEN TRACK OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND COLLOCATION ALONG AND
NORTH OF UPPER JET...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER ERN TX DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND LIFT RAPIDLY NEWD INTO
NRN/CENTRAL LA...AR...CENTRAL/NRN MS...WRN TN...WRN AL THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THERE APPEARS TO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SUPERCELLS ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH AN ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT.
FARTHER SOUTH WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...SHEAR PROFILES ARE FORECAST
TO BECOME VERY STRONG AS 70+ KT H5 WINDS OVERSPREAD 64+F SURFACE
DEW POINTS. HOWEVER...THIS REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE SOME
SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF NNEWD LIFTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS...WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE/POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS. REGARDLESS...
VERY STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR AND INCREASING THETA-E AIR MASS
WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER INDICATE A LIKELIHOOD FOR SUPERCELLS AND
POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH ANY CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION.
..EVANS.. 03/17/03