High risk of severe from Omaha through Des Moines today.

[WXBUFFJIM]

If Saturday night wasn't bad enough for the Midwest and Plain states, it appears today could end up being one of if not the worse tornado day of the year as all the ingredients are in place for a damaging and deadly tornado outbreak from eastern and southeastern Nebraska through most of Iowa and eventually northern Illinois.

Another area of low pressure is expected to develop over the central plains during the day Monday with the warm front extending eastward from northern Kansas through western Missouri in the morning hours on Monday. Meanwhile a cold front trails the low across southwest Kansas. Throughout the day, expect this warm front to track northward into east central Nebraska and Iowa and into northern Illinois. The low should be centered over southern Nebraska by later this evening with the trailing cold front and dryline into Kansas and Oklahoma. The triple point should be located near Grand Island, Nebraska by early evening.

At the same time, a very strong upper air disturbance will run right on top of all of these surface features, enhancing the wind fields including increasing wind aloft, and increasing directional wind shear. Southeast winds at the surface with stronger southwest winds aloft will favor a 90 degree turning of the winds with height, favoring strong/violent tornadic supercells by later afternoon and early evening. This shear combined with extreme instability along and to the north of the warm front will favor rapidly developing supercells by afternoon and lasting through the evening hours with very large hail, damaging wind, and destructive tornadoes/violent tornadoes likely.

The timing we're looking at will include severe/tornadic thunderstorm development around mid afternoon across southern Nebraska and into extreme southwest Iowa with destructive tornadoes very likely. This area of severe convection will develop rapidly and affect the areas from Omaha through Des Moines and the Quad Cities through early evening. All three cities are included in a high risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The main threats will be very large hail to softball sized, wind gusts of 80-100 mph and locally stronger, and destructive to potentially deadly tornadoes. The most destructive tornadoes initially will be across southeastern and eastern Nebraska and into southwestern Iowa. We also need to keep in mind that most places, especially across eastern central Iowa have been flooding over the past several days and they do not need anymore rain. Unfortunately today's events could lead to devastating and deadly flooding in portions of this severe weather outlook area. Remember to turn around and don't drown if you run into an area of flood waters ahead of you. It could save your life.

More updates will be given on this severe weather outbreak potential throughout the day. Bottom line though is it's looking to be as violent, if not worse than what we dealt with Saturday night from Lincoln and Omaha, Nebraska eastward through Des Moines, Iowa City, and the Quad Cities area too. Stay safe everyone as we are in a severe weather mode again today.

Jim

[Guest]

Thanks for your analysis, Jim! I definetely will be keeping a weather eye out today and tonight. I have a feeling that the phrase "destructive tornadoes" is a very "good" description of the situation, unfortunately!

[weatherlover427]

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0605 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2004

VALID 241105Z - 241900Z

CORRECTED FOR DIRECTION REFERENCE IN OPENING PARAGRAPH

...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING STRONG TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN IOWA WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS NORTHEAST KANSAS NORTHERN MISSOURI SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA

OTHER MORE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK.

AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING STRONG TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE...IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA...NORTHEAST KANSAS...AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT.

EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH A SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCE EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THE COLORADO TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER KANSAS EARLY TODAY...REACHING THE EASTERN NEBRASKA AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS RETURNING NORTHWARD FROM OKLAHOMA TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLORADO DISTURBANCE. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS KANSAS...MISSOURI...EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN IOWA BY THIS EVENING. WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F...EXTREME INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...THE CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTIONS AND SPEEDS WITH HEIGHT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL-TYPE THUNDERSTORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA...WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY TO SPREAD EASTWARD AND EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA...NORTHEAST KANSAS...AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG AND POTENTIALLY LONG-LIVED TORNADOES...ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. BY THIS EVENING...THE SUPERCELL STORMS SHOULD MERGE INTO A LARGER THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER AND SURGE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. THIS THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL...BUT BY THEN THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. BY LATE TONIGHT...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS AREA.

THIS IS POTENTIALLY A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..THOMPSON.. 05/24/2004