Update on this outbreak potential...high risk shifts a bit..

[WXBUFFJIM]

If Saturday night wasn't bad enough for the Midwest and Plain states, it appears today could end up being one of if not the worse tornado day of the year as all the ingredients are in place for a damaging and deadly tornado outbreak from eastern and southeastern Nebraska through most of southern Iowa, northern Missouri and into northeast Kansas and eventually northern Illinois later tonight. Some of the communities in the path of this destructive weather includes Kansas City, St Joseph, Omaha, Lincoln, Des Moines and the Quad Cities area. Eventually Chicago area points south will likely see a major complex of storms later tonight as these supercell evolve into bowing segments.

Another area of low pressure is expected to develop over the central plains during the day Monday with the warm front extending eastward from northern Kansas through western Missouri in the morning hours on Monday. Meanwhile a cold front trails the low across southwest Kansas. Throughout the day, expect this warm front to track a bit northward into southeastern Nebraska and extreme southern Iowa and into northern Missouri. The low should be centered over southern Nebraska by later this evening with the trailing cold front and dryline into Kansas and Oklahoma. The triple point should be located near Grand Island, Nebraska by early evening.

At the same time, a very strong upper air disturbance will run right on top of all of these surface features, enhancing the wind fields including increasing wind aloft, and increasing directional wind shear. Southeast winds at the surface with stronger southwest winds aloft will favor a 90 degree turning of the winds with height, favoring strong/violent tornadic supercells by later afternoon and early evening. This shear combined with extreme instability along and to the north of the warm front will favor rapidly developing supercells by afternoon and lasting through the evening hours with very large hail, damaging wind, and destructive tornadoes/violent tornadoes likely.

The timing we're looking at will include severe/tornadic thunderstorm development around mid afternoon across southern Nebraska and into extreme southwest Iowa, northern Missouri, and northeast Kansas with destructive tornadoes very likely. This area of severe convection will develop rapidly and affect the areas from Kansas City, Omaha through Des Moines and the Quad Cities through early evening. All four cities are included in a high risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The main threats will be very large hail to softball sized, wind gusts of 80-100 mph and locally stronger, and destructive to potentially deadly tornadoes. The most destructive tornadoes initially will be across southeastern and eastern Nebraska and into southwestern Iowa. However the threat will also shift a bit further south into northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas. We also need to keep in mind that most places, especially across Iowa and into eastern nebraska have been flooding over the past several days and they do not need anymore rain. Unfortunately today's events could lead to devastating and deadly flooding in portions of this severe weather outlook area. Remember to turn around and don't drown if you run into an area of flood waters ahead of you. It could save your life.

More updates will be given on this severe weather outbreak potential throughout the day. Bottom line though is it's looking to be as violent, if not worse than what we dealt with Saturday night from Kansas City, KS northward to Lincoln and Omaha, Nebraska eastward through Des Moines, Iowa City, and the Quad Cities area too. Stay safe everyone as we are in a major severe weather mode again today.

Also if anyone want any data on this severe weather outbreak, please give me your interest for that here or PM me. I won't mind doing this for the sake of you folks given the dangerous situation we're talking about.

More updates later this afternoon.
Jim

[Aquawind]

Thanks for that update.. Sounds like a supercell convention is setting up.

[wx247]

Thanks for the update Jim!!! Great as usual.