MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0864
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN/E-CNTRL KS INTO NWRN/W-CNTRL MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 241737Z - 241900Z
TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG N-S CONFLUENCE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AND A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE HOUR.
AS OF 1720Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CUMULUS FIELD
BECOMING MORE ENHANCED ALONG N-S ORIENTED WARM SECTOR CONFLUENCE
LINE FROM SALINE/OTTAWA COUNTIES EWD INTO CLOUD AND DICKINSON
COUNTIES IN NERN KS. HERE...DEWPOINTS OF AROUND 70F AND DIABATIC
HEATING ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF 3500 J/KG. RECENT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LARGE-SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SWRN KS IS BEGINNING TO
SPREAD EWD INTO THE AREA WITH MLCIN NOW AOB 50 J/KG. TSTM INITIATION
IS LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG THIS CONFLUENCE LINE
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 55KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK /PER
HAVILAND KS PROFILER/ CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE NEWD.
STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS WITH LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPH STRUCTURES FAVORING STRONG LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES. A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR.
..MEAD.. 05/24/2004
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...