Severe Storms Possible Tommorow in Virginia

[VAWXWatcher6]

From the 0800 SPC Update For Friday!!


...NC NWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...
CONVECTION MAY BE OCCURING EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE MORNING AS SW-NE ORIENTED JET STREAM
SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD. SUBSTANTIAL AIR MASS RECOVERY SHOULD OCCUR AS
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND CONVECTION AND ELEVATED MIX LAYER SPREADING IN
FROM THE SW SHOULD RESULT IN SEVERAL HOURS OF SUNSHINE. THE
ELEVATED MIX LAYER WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES. WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 70S AND DEWPOINTS FROM 55 TO 65...THIS WILL RESULT
IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
STRONG SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SUGGEST SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY
WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ALSO...BOTH THE GFS/ETA SUGGEST A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN NRN VA AND THIS WOULD
RESULT IN BACKED SURFACE WINDS...AND ENHANCE THE TORNADO THREAT.

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SPC has me in 25% chance of severe storms,
Do you thank that will go up or stay the same?


Highs Tommorow may be as High as 75 to 80 Degress, Today Highs in the 50s to lower 60s.

[VAWXWatcher6]

Here is the 1730 Update From The SPC



...NC NWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE OCCURING AT THE ONSET OF
THE FORECAST FROM GA NWD INTO SRN VA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE MORNING WITH AIRMASS RECOVERY EXPECTED
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT. CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WV/VA SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE NWWD
ADVECTION OF LOWER TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS INTO THE DELMARVA REGION BY
LATE AFTERNOON. THIS INCREASING MOISTURE BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES -- 7-7.5 C/KM -- WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FROM PA SWD INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AS FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVERSPREADS
THE WARM SECTOR. COMBINATION OF 50-60 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS SUGGESTS THE LIKELIHOOD OF SUPERCELLS
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TORNADO THREAT WILL BE GREATEST
ALONG AND E OF SECONDARY SURFACE LOW TRACK FROM THE ERN HALF OF VA
NEWD INTO MD AND DE WHERE BACKED SURFACE WINDS WILL EFFECTIVELY
ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. FARTHER S INTO NC...PRIMARY THREAT
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN
VEERED TO SWLY AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT.

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They still have Most of Virginia in 25% chance of severe storms on Friday!!