SPC AC 022023
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0323 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2004
VALID 022000Z - 031200Z
THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W
OKC 15 ESE TUL 40 NW HOT 15 ESE TXK 35 SSW TXK 45 SSW ADM 25 ESE FSI
15 W OKC.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE
ORF 40 NNW GSO 35 NW CHA 35 ENE ANB 50 W AGS 30 SW CRE ...CONT... 15
SW PNS 20 SSW SEM 10 SSE CBM 30 NNW GWO 15 SSE ESF 30 SW 7R4
...CONT... 30 ENE GLS 15 WNW SAT 55 SW TCC 20 SW TAD 30 SW LIC 50
ENE LIC 45 WSW HLC 10 NW UMN POF 30 SSW OWB 30 ESE LUK 10 S CLE 20
NW UCA 20 SSE PSM.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S CRP LRD
...CONT... 55 SW DMN 30 NNE SVC 30 SE 4SL 40 S MTJ 50 ENE U24 25 ESE
MLD 60 SSW COD 40 N RWL 45 N CYS 15 NNW SLN 25 ESE EMP 50 NNE JLN 10
ESE TBN 35 S UIN 35 NNW IRK 35 WNW ALO 30 WNW DBQ 20 NW CGX 30 W SBN
20 SE GRR 30 NE MTC ...CONT... 25 SSW ART 20 S BTV 35 NW AUG 20 E
BHB.
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN-SERN OK/FAR SWRN AR AND FAR NERN TX...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS EWD
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY TO MUCH OF THE ERN STATES...
...SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN/SERN OK
INTO WRN/SWRN AR AND FAR NERN TX THIS AFTERNOON...
...SYNOPSIS...
WRN PORTION OF ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD
TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OH VALLEY THIS PERIOD. A BAND OF
50-60 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THE LEADING PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
THE OH VALLEY SWWD TO CENTRAL AR...AND THEN WWD ACROSS CENTRAL-NRN
OK TO THE NORTH OF OKC INTO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE. THE ERN PORTION
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...REACHING NJ SWWD TO ERN TN TO SRN AR BY 12Z.
...SRN PLAINS...
ONGOING SEVERE BOW ECHO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS ERN/SERN
OK INTO WRN-SWRN AR AND FAR NERN TX PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING
WINDS AS IT MOVES SEWD ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY AND WITHIN A VERY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WITHIN NWLY FLOW ALOFT. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE WELL
ORGANIZED COLD POOL WITH THE FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS AIDS IN FAST
SEWD MOVEMENT OF THE BOW ECHO.
STRONGER CAP WWD ACROSS WRN OK INTO THE TX PANHANDLE HAS LIMITED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS AREA. HOWEVER...INCREASING
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS IT MERGES WITH
SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY ACROSS WRN OK INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND ADDITIONAL
SURFACE HEATING WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF SERN CO/NERN NM. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND AN
EXTREMELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE 4000+ J/KG/ AIR MASS OVER SWRN OK/NWRN TX
TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER SERN CO/ERN NM WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL. A
FEW SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE FROM FAR WRN OK ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE INTO FAR SERN CO/FAR SWRN KS.
ONE OR TWO MCS/S IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS NWRN
TX AND/OR OK AS A SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 50 KT ACROSS WRN TX.
STRONG WAA ON THE NOSE OF THIS JET WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORM FORMATION OVERNIGHT WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL. THESE MCS/S WILL MOVE ESEWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS
POTENTIALLY REACHING PORTIONS OF SERN TX/LA AND AR BY 12Z THURSDAY.