Iraq Analysis

[Allexpert Mike]

I know this belongs in the Global Forum but I think a lot of us would be interested to see what kind of conditions are troops are facing. My thoughts and prays are with all our troops figthing for our country.

Iraq Forecast::::::::::::::::::::

IRAQ AREA FORECAST- As we head into the next 24hrs are so a weak system will move into Central Iran where showers maypop up on the northern fringe of the Low where the best dynamics will be. If your not north of the Low looks like some Negative Vorticity Advection gets in leading to sinking air, however as we head towards the northern edge of the system there will be some PVA leading to riding air and moderate UVV's. Even though H8 and H7 RH fields don't support anything much we can't rule out a few pop up showers around Central Iran. There is also going to be WAA with some isentropic lifting creating some enhancement of the precip, but not so much support from the Jet with flow aloft but there will be some nice diffluence. Then towards the later part of the Weekend a Cold front will bring some showers to Turkey and into Syria. Early next week we watch out for a pretty big storm system which could bring some showers and storms along with some dust storms. It will be with a nice trough and with nice omega sig ridging to the West of the trough in Italy, Greece, Germany, etc. will allow for the trough to dig. The vortex of our system will be significant in the 20's. The system will remain a pos. tilt as it enters the Middle East. Behind the system is strong CAA with strong winds and out in front of it is some nice WAA . With strong PVA we will have strong UVV's along with nice Jet dynamics. Strong flow aloft along with good wind fields and also some nice Vertical shear allowing a wider area for latent heat to enhance showers and storms. With very tight thermal gradient the cold front will pass through the area kicking up a strong SW wind ahead of it and this could lead to some big dust storms. Temperatures over the next few days will have high temps in the mid 70's and early next week before the frontal passage high temperatures will be into the 80's. After the frontal passage were talking upper 60's so this cf will feature a nice cool down. After front passes winds will ease up some and die down. The nice comfortable upper 60's as high's look to stay in place for at least 2-3 days. (Can't look beyond that right now). But after this storm system passes it looks like Iraq will go into a drier pattern with ridging dominating over most of Europe. And even if storm systems to dig down the trough the track should be to the north of Iraq allowing some precip in North Irag,,,,,North of Baghdad. So once we get through the early week looks like we will have the wx on our side for our troops with dry and cool conditions.


Happy Official Spring (yesterday at 8:00) and for the East Coasters we've felt like spring for the majority of March so far.....[/b]

[Amanzi]

Thanks for that! Good to know the weather will be on our side.