Severe cell in NW Illinois

[Stormchaser16]

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USLoca ... odnav=none

Got hail with this one

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... L&type=N0R

No storm track with this one yet on wunderground, yet DBZ appears to be over 60 with this one!

[Stormchaser16]

Here we go

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... L&type=N0R

WOW..... maximum hail size 2" 100% likely!
Max DBZ at the center is 62!

Edit to include:
Rotation detected with this one...... i was looking at the wunderground radar and thought i saw rotation, went back to intellicast storm track, and sure enough its picking up rotation! This is one NASTY storm

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USLoca ... odnav=none
Radial velocity shows that there is definite rotation

[isobar]

Yikes, what a monster! Got the 1st tornado watch of the day issued 5 mins after your last post. Not a PDS yet.

Capes over 5000!! That's more than May 1999 OKC.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 619
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1055 AM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN IOWA
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1055 AM UNTIL
500 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST
OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF DUBUQUE IOWA TO 15 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF BLOOMINGTON ILLINOIS.

DISCUSSION...EXTREME INSTABILITY ERN IA SPREADING INTO IL AHEAD OF
VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH. RAPID SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS NERN IA/NWRN IL. 40-50KT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR COUPLED WITH MUCAPES ABOVE 5000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS WHICH WILL ENHANCE LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO THREAT.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 30030.

[wx247]

Heads up everyone in that area... Jacki, that means YOU!

[Stormchaser16]

The storm is over Lee county moving SE towards the I80 corridor in little over an hour, hail over 2.25" is likely with the storm as it heads SE.

Also, SRVEL radar is showing a couplet(inbound vs. outbound) strong enough to warrant concern for tornadic activity if not already occuring. If you are in the path of this storm you NEED to take shelter immediately as no signs of weakening are currently noted.

[Stormchaser16]

To add: At the top of this hour Intellicast storm track radar DID indeed detect tornadic activity associated with this cell, recently it has dropped that but STILL has rotational energy with the storm as SRVEL is showing a strong enough couplet. I would not be surprised to see it go tornadic again as it approaches I80.

This storm should last at least until I80, Shear profiles indicate that >35KT shear exists for at least the next 2 hours for the storm, CAPE remains EXTREMELY high, tornadic Potential (Uses 0-6km Shear, 0-1km Helicity, MLCAPE, LCL Hgt) when above 1 indiactes that a tornado greater then F2 is possible, in the case of this supercell we have tornadic indice of >2 until I80 and then >1 for a short time after. When the EHI (energy helicity indice) is greater then 1 it has been associated with sig. tornadoes, in this case we have >3 for a long time. The LIFT index is amazing, it is headed into an area with a lift of -10! This is extremely high vertical lift.......

All the signs point to this storm remaining severe for some time probably. As I typed this, the DBZ is up to 65, and the maximum hail size is now 2.75", and as expected with a LIFT index of -10, the storm is elevated to 52,000 ft! It is moving SW at 26 Kts. The core of the storm should be crossing I80 in a little less then an hour now, however since the storm is so huge, anyone along the I80 corrdior needs to take cover now because the rest of the storm is almost on top of you.

[Stormchaser16]

As expected:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/showsigwx.php?w ... DO+WARNING

Tornado ON THE GROUND

[Stormchaser16]

Things just get worse:

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... L&type=N0R

Nasty storms up in Wisconsin too, but the worst is still in Northern Illinois, where storms SW of Chicago continue to fire up, very severe in nature. 3" hail now likely for one of the cells, with a new Tornado warning out for that cell in Livingston county.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/lasthour.html

High wind reports and hail reports associated with these cells.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html

And 1 tornado so far

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1645.html

Additional development on flank of initial cell IS occuring now and they are just as bad as the initial one, which has now cleared I80, with more storms about to cross I80.

[pawlee]

someone posted this on a chase list i belong to...

http://week.com/morenews/morenews-read.asp?n=4973

http://week.com/news/tornado2/photos.asp

[Stormchaser16]

YIKES, nasty looking tornado, hope everyone is OK

[Skywatch_NC]

The link said 10 minor injuries at a Parsons Tech plant near Eureka.
Thankfully no serious or critical and no deaths.

Eric

[Stormchaser16]

Storm line is going to be bearing down into Kentucky soon, however NOT as strong as what we have seen from them throughout the day, main threat now is becoming damaging winds and torrential rains, yet still large hail and the possibility of more tornadoes exist throughout the evening. Watch out between Evansville and Louisville for this line of storms to be approaching within an hour.

[Skywatch_NC]

Tomorrow here in NC the primary threat looks to be damaging straight-line winds...but hail or an isolated tornado can't be ruled out either according to WRAL-TV5 chief met Greg Fishel.

Raleigh is in a 25% Probabolistic Outlook zone according to the SPC.

Eric

[Dan]

Tomorrow here in NC the primary threat looks to be damaging straight-line winds...but hail or an isolated tornado can't be ruled out either according to WRAL-TV5 chief met Greg Fishel.

Raleigh is in a 25% Probabolistic Outlook zone according to the SPC.

Eric

yeah, looks like eastern north carolina could have a really rough afternoon and evening tomorrow. It also looks potentially dangerous for me here in the western part of North Carolina. The computer models hint at an MCS feature crossing over the mountains around 12z tomorrow. Also, per SPC, they're calling for rough storms to form along the mountains early afternoon.

[breeze]

That big bow echo in Kentucky is heading
straight south into Tennessee - right at us!
Expected ETA for me, around 11:00pm!