Whoa, Break Out the Winter Coats Next Friday!

[NWIASpotter]

SPC has a slight risk out for tuesday.........waiting for the 800 outlook But it looks like the majority of the storms should mostly be in Northern Minnesota

The new outlooks from spc are out, DAY ONE puts a slight risk over parts of western South Dakota, extreme southeast Montana. As well as an area of slight risk over Iowa, except for NW corner as well as extreme southeast Nebraska parts of Illinois and Wisconsin. There will be a chance for isolated tornadoes across areas of Iowa, as SPC has it in a 5% probability. DAY TWO puts a slight risk over Iowa, Minnesota, northern Illinois and the eastern dakotas. Once again it looks to be a chance of isolated tornadoes through this area. DAY THREE has a large area of slight risk, includes Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, northern Missouri and Kansas, and southern Nebraska.

Overall nothing looks too exciting, for some reason SPC isn't liking the chances for severe weather. Going to have to wait for the new models at 12z to see what they say. I know last night for the Spencer, IA area GFS was listing us at a 80% chance of rain!!! NWS only has us for a 30% at most. Will once again have to wait for the day of to figure out what the is going on!!

[Guest]

DAY THREE has a large area of slight risk, includes Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, northern Missouri and Kansas, and southern Nebraska.

What was a shocker this morning is that NWS Hastings has severe wording in for WEDNESDAY in the Zones! Rarely have I seen the NWS put in "some storms maybe severe" or similar text in a forecast beyond 48 hours out.

Hastings early morning ZFP

[NWIASpotter]

Yea, I haven't heard that very often either. Better then Sioux Falls doesn't have any severe wording in at all, just thunderstorms. I like the 12z run of GFS for me up here in NW Iowa. A nice mesoscale complex moving through, a vort max to go with it, nearly 2.5 inches of rain possible as the storms move directly over my area!!!

[ssom04]

My local office had severe wording.....then they didnt now it says

Late Afternoon: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could be severe, with damaging winds. Partly cloudy, with a high around 89. West wind around 8 mph. ummmmmmmmm

Tonight: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 69. North northwest wind between 8 and 11 mph becoming calm.

Tuesday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 87. Calm wind becoming southeast between 8 and 11 mph.

I'll guess I'll wait for something to develop Chanhassen never uses the word severe unless its gonna be something serious??????

[NWIASpotter]

There are several models that develop some strong storms. The GFS, NGM, and the MM5 from the Air Force develop strong storms in the midwest.
First the GFS, it has storms ongoing in eastern South Dakota tomorrow morning, these move off to the southeast going throughout areas around Sioux Falls(12z), Worthington(18z), LeMars(18z), Spencer(00z), Storm Lake(00z). This t'storm complex puts down to as much as 2.5 inches of rain.

NGM, this model develops thunderstorm, not quite as strong as the GFS, but NGM is noted to be drier then normal. It is not quite as large and is taken on a little more southern track. Areas include Sioux Falls, Yankton, Sioux City, LeMars, Storm Lake. It is moved through at about the same time period as the GFS which looks to give me a good clue that something is bound to break out.

MM5, the air force model develops these thunderstorms sooner then the other two models. Puting them through the areas around 3 hours sooner. Areas included in this model are Sioux Falls, Worthington, Pipestone, New Ulm, Mankato, and Rochester.

It is going to be very difficult to tell when the storms are going to develop. It will depend on the Cap on the atmosphere, how much cloud cover is over these areas from tonights possible storms, and with outflow boundries possible will make it even harder. My forecast is going to put a large area of precip, some being heavy with 2 inches plus, over SE South Dakota, SW Minn, through NW and Central Iowa overnight. The MM5 is an excellent predictor on hail, and looks to have some decent sized hail possible. Damaging winds are possible, and there is a chance that some tornadoes could develop with the beginning supercells.

[ssom04]

Now lets just pray that there is no storms tonight because I hate night storms, and they ruin the next day's storms

I sure hope they wait off until after Noon or so since I gotta work early

SPC only lists a 15% risk............BTW we should make a seperate thread for this?