Central Plains SVR Weather

[NWIASpotter]

There looks to be a chance of some severe weather this afternoon and evening over parts of MN, IA, NE, KS, and MO. SPC has a slight risk of severe weather in the area, with a 2% probability of tornadoes, mainly in western IA, and then 15% probability of wind and hail over the slight risk area. None of the models from last night are real impressive with this chance. But, the off hour GFS seems to have a decent hold on what is expected to develop according to the SPC.


...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...MID MS VALLEY TO CENTRAL PLAINS...

VEERED LOW LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION APPEAR PARTLY
RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS SRN MN INTO NRN IA. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD SEWD AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION. IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE...SFC FRONT WILL
LAG UPPER SHORTWAVE SOMEWHAT BUT LIKELY PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN
FUTURE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS
HEATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ALONG WITH FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE...WILL PROVE SUFFICIENT IN GENERATING LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. 12Z
SOUNDINGS FROM THIS REGION SUGGEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH VERTICAL MIXING AND SBCAPE VALUES SHOULD EXCEED
2500 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. DEEP LAYER VEERING
AND SPEED SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30-35KT SUGGEST ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
ARE POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREATS. GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
OCCUR FROM ERN NEB INTO IA WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY EXPECTED
ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS NRN KS INTO NERN CO.