...AN ALL TIME RECORD COLD AUGUST IN PROGRESS ACROSS MINNESO

[Anonymous]

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
445 AM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

...AN ALL TIME RECORD COLD AUGUST IN PROGRESS ACROSS MINNESOTA...

LATE SUMMER VACATIONS HAVE BROUGHT SWEATSHIRTS AND FROST ACROSS
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN THIS MONTH...INSTEAD OF THE USUAL STEAMY AND
SULTRY DOG DAYS OF AUGUST. AN UNSEASONABLY FAR SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF
THE POLAR FRONT...WHICH USUALLY IS RESIDING FAR TO THE NORTH INTO
CENTRAL CANADA...HAS KEPT THE STATES WONDERING WHEN...AND
IF...SUMMER WILL RETURN FOR MORE THAN A FEW DAYS AT A TIME. SO FAR
THIS MONTH...TEMPERATURES AT THE MAJOR CLIMATOLOGICAL RECORDING
SITES IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN ARE RUNNING
CLOSE TO...OR EXCEEDING...ALL TIME MINIMUMS IN AVERAGE DAILY
TEMPERATURE.

LISTED BELOW ARE THE TOP 5 COLDEST AUGUSTS ON RECORD FOR
ALEXANDRIA...ST.CLOUD...MINNEAPOLIS...AND EAU CLAIRE...THROUGH THIS
POINT IN THE MONTH (AUGUST 1ST THROUGH AUGUST 18TH).

ALEXANDRIA (1940-2004 PERIOD)
-----------------------------
1. 62.3 (2004)***
2. 64.3 (1977)
3. 65.2 (1951)
4. 65.4 (1985)
5. 65.6 (1948)

ST. CLOUD (1904-2004 PERIOD)
-----------------------------
1. 62.5 (1977)
2. 62.8 (2004)***
3. 63.6 (1992)
4. 63.9 (1994)
5. 64.5 (1997)

MINNEAPOLIS (1891-2004 PERIOD)
------------------------------
1. 65.3 (1903)
2. 65.6 (1977)
3. 66.0 (1912)
4. 66.2 (1924)
5. 66.2 (1994)

***2004 CURRENTLY RANKS #9 COLDEST IN MINNEAPOLIS HISTORY AT 66.7
DEGREES.***

EAU CLAIRE (1949-2004 PERIOD)
-----------------------------
1. 63.4 (1951)
2. 63.6 (2004)***
3. 64.8 (1977)
4. 64.9 (1992)
5. 65.7 (1952)

WITH THIS MORNINGS LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING SOME 10 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...AND ANOTHER VERY COOL...MORNING ON TAP FOR SATURDAY
MORNING...THESE VALUES WILL CONTINUE THEIR RISE TO THE TOP...OR
INCREASE THEIR "LEAD" AT THE TOP.

FORECASTED UPPER AIR PATTERNS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MONTH...CONTINUE TO SHOW BETTER CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH CHANCES CONTINUING OF THESE INTRUSIONS OF MUCH
COOLER THAN NORMAL AIR.

IT IS ALWAYS INTERESTING TO DRAW ANALOGIES BETWEEN TIMES OF EXTREME
WEATHER. CERTAINLY THIS CASE IS UNSETTLING...LOOKING AT THE OTHER
VERY COOL AUGUSTS...AND THE YEAR 1977 WHICH SHOWS UP IN THE TOP OF
THE LISTS ABOVE. AUGUST OF 1977 STARTED A SPELL OF 7 STRAIGHT MONTHS
OF MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LASTING INTO MARCH OF
1978. SEVERAL MONTHS...INCLUDING JANUARY AND FEBRUARY OF 1978 WERE
BITTERLY COLD. THIS LED TO THE LONGEST STRETCH OF SUB-FREEZING
WEATHER IN THE TWIN CITIES IN HISTORY...NEARLY 67 DAYS IN DEC-FEB OF
1977-1978. THE WINTER 0F 77-78 ALSO BROUGHT THE EARLIEST >2" SNOW TO
MINNEAPOLIS ON 10/10/77. WHILE THERE IS NOTHING SCIENTIFIC WHICH
TIES AN EXTREMELY COOL AUGUST WITH A VERY COLD WINTER...CERTAINLY
1977...AND EVEN 1951 WHICH SAW A VERY COLD START TO THE WINTER...ARE
LOOMING AS POSSIBILITIES FOR WHAT MAY BE IN STORE FOR AN AREA OF THE
COUNTRY STILL WAITING FOR SUMMER TO ARRIVE FOR MORE THAN A FEW DAYS
AT A TIME.

$$

BINAU



and more of the same tonight..............

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
300 AM CDT FRI AUG 20 2004

...RECORD COLD AND PROBABLE FROST ON THE WAY TONIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...
STILL TAKING A DOUBLE TAKE ON THE DATE AND THE FCST TEMPS FOR THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. OBVIOUSLY THE MAIN CONCERN IN SHORT TERM IS COOL
TEMPS/RECORDS AND FROST POTENTIAL. AS DAY SHIFT ALLUDED TO...ETA
CONT TO SLOW SFC FRONT PROGRESS FOR SAT/SUN WHICH KEEPS DRIFTING SFC
HI WEST/NORTH FOR TNGT. LOOKING BETTER AND BETTER FOR FROST. WL LET
DAYSHIFT TAKE ONE MORE LOOK AT RIDGE AXIS AND DWPTS SO WILL LET THE
ADVRY ISSUANCE...IF IT IS NEEDED...TO THEM.

WEAK FROPA IN E-W FASHION TAKING PLACE NOW WITH FRNT ON MML TO MSP
TO RPD LINE...WITH POST FRONTAL BAND OF MID CLD IN WEAK
FRONTOGENETICAL AXIS. S/W MIGRATING THRU NEB/IA KEEPING FAR SRN TIER
IN CIRRUS...SO BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS OF CLDS...MORNING WL BE PC
ACRS CWA. CAA CONT THRU MORNING INTO AFTN AS UPR TROF BECOMES
ENTRENCHED. CLDS WL DISSPATE/MOVE OFF BY AFTN LEAVING CRYSTAL BLUE
SKIES...AND DWPTS MORE REMINISCENT OF OCTOBER (30S) AND HIGHS NOT
REACHING 70. AMAZING.

THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A RAPID DROP IN TEMP THIS EVE AS SFC HI MOVS
ACRS NRN IA. WINDS TO GO LGT AND DEEP DRY AIR PER BUFR DATA/RH
FIELDS OVR ENTIRE CWA. AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SITN...AND
UPSTREAM/FCST DEWPTS HINTING WE WON'T JUST BREAK RECORDS
TONIGHT...WE WILL SMASH THEM. RECORDS (MSP->50(!!)...EAU->44...AND
STC->42) SHOULD ALL FALL BY 3 TO 5 DEG. NRN CWA...ESP NERN CWA NORTH
OF MSP METRO TWRD JMR/RPD SEEMS ESP VULNERBALE. WUD NOT BE AT
SUPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED LOCALE TOUCH 32 FOR A BRIEF MOMENT GIVEN
LOCALIZED EFFECTS/TERRAIN. USED MET DATA AS A START FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS...AND TWEAKED DOWN 1-3 DEGS BASED ON RECENT MET WARM BIAS ON
2ND PD LOWS FM 00Z MDLS SEEN ACRS CWA. THIS YIELDS MID/UPR 30S IN
NRN CWA...AND UPR 30S/LO 40S ELSEWHERE WITH MSP URBAN HEAT ISLAND
THE WARMEST IN THE MID 40S.

ON SAT WE TURN IT ALL AROUND IN A HURRY AND SHUD SEE SOME 30-35 DEG
DIURNAL SWINGS...AS FLOW TURNS SWLY AHEAD OF RAPIDLY MVG S/W ACRS
INTL BORDER. SYS LOOKS BETTER FM SFC TO H85...AND NOT AS IMPRESSIVE
FM H7 TO H5. STILL...WINDS WL TURN GUSTY ON RETURN FLO AND STRONG
WAA ENSUES. MID LEVELS REALLY WARM AS STEEP LAPSE RATE (>8C/KM)
PLUME ADVECTS OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN ON THE WLY FLO ALOFT. WEST WILL
WARM THE MOST...WITH FAR ERN CWA STILL STUCK UNDER EFFECTS OF SFC
HI. THOUGHT INITIALLY OF POPS SAT AFTN IN VRY STRONG THETA-E ADV
ALOFT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ON 305K...BUT CPD'S REMAIN ABV 100MB ACRS
CWA SUGGESTING ANY MOISTURE WL GO INTO SOME AC DECKS. MAY ACTUALLY
BE SOME FIRE WX CONCERNS IN FAR WRN CWA SAT AFTN GIVEN HIGHS IN THE
UPR 70S...STRNG SLY WINDS...AND RH DROPPING INTO 30% RANGE.

LACK OF LLVL MOISTURE WL HURT POP CHANCES DESPITE A PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE SETUP SAT NIGHT...AS AFORMENTIONED S/W DRIVES STRONG SFC
LO PRES ACRS NRN MN. LLJ REALLY IMPRESSIVE...WITH 55KT AT H925 IN
SRN MN POINTING INTO NRN MN. STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND CONT
THETA-E ADV BEG FOR HIER POPS...BUT INSTABILITY JUST CAN'T REV UP
DUE TO MEAGER LLVL MOISTURE...AND HELP FROM THE GULF A LONG WAYS
AWAY. SREF POPS FOCUS ON AREA JUST NORTH OF MSP INTO NWRN WI AND
THIS LOOKS GOOD GIVEN LLJ FOCUS AND STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION ALOFT
PER DIFF THETA-E ADV. MORE MOISTURE WOULD SPELL AN ACTIVE ELEVATED
TSRA EVENT WITH THAT LLJ...BUT FOR NOW WL KEEP LOW/MID CHCY POPS
ACRS NRN CWA AS COLD FRONT ENTERS CWA BY SUNRISE SUNDAY.

SUN SHOULD BRING THE ARRIVAL OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL ZONE IN SCNT MN INTO WRN WI. THIS RAPIDLY INCREASES
INSTABILITY WITH ETA POOLING PLENTY OF JOULES (~2500 ML) IN NRN IA
AS DEWPOINTS WORK INTO THE 60S. LLVL THETA-E AXIS REALLY SHARPENS
UP. IF FRNT CONT TO SLOW...CWA MAY BE ACTIVE SUN AFTN/EVE. AS IT
STANDS...FAR SERN CWA WL SEE PSBL SVR STORMS. BUT WITH UPR FORCING
PULLING OFF...ACTION SHUD BE SCT IN NATURE...AND RELEGATED TO
CONVERGENCE ALNG FRONTAL ZONE.

LONGER TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THE LATEST GFS AND LONG TERM MODELS ALL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHIFT
IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER HUDSON
BAY...MOVING NORTHEAST OVER SIBERIA DURING THE PERIOD. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING...ALSO SHOWED A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO
BREAKDOWN THE LONGWAVE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION. THUS...ALLOWING THE UPPER AIRFLOW TO BECOME MORE
ZONAL/WESTERLY OVER NORTH AMERICA. THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED WITH A THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA
EACH DAY. TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL BOUTS OF PRECIP WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
DISCERN. TEMPS REMAINING ON THE COOL SIDE DUE TO CLOUDS/PRECIP.

&&

[Guest]

this is very interesting, I was watching TWC and they said one place in Minnesota got into the 20's last night...

[tropicana]

Yeah...
Embarrass MN fell to 23F overnight .
brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

[NWIASpotter]

Iowa is nearly the same, several cities are fairly close to having this August be one of the coldest on record.