SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK

[WXBUFFJIM]

This will likely be outbreak #1 of the season as far as significant widespread severe is concerned for the southern United States and into the ARKLATEX region. Anyone living in that region of the country need to closely monitor the weather since this severe weather outbreak could be very significant.

There is also a smaller area from DC to Baltimore where severe wind is possible later this afternoon, especially if we break out of the marine layer overcast later this morning. Main threat from any thunderstorm later today for DC and baltimore is wind gusts to 55 mph.

The bigger problem starts in the southern plains later today in to tonight as a strong upper disturbance from the west feeds in warm moist air in from the gulf of mexico. Supercells are expected to explode later today into this evening from north Texas into south central Oklahoma. While wind and possible tornadoes may occur from this, the biggest threat today will be hail up to softball size. Ardmore, Dallas and Fort Worth are in the path of this. Even Oklahoma City could see hail golfball to baseball size later tonight potentially. Hail is the big threat today into tonight.

However tomorrow is expected to get even worse as SPC already has a moderate risk of severe weather for little rock and shreveport. It's not impossilbe that an upgrade to high risk may occur by later today or tomorrow for tomorrows severe threat. As a cold front with the strong upper low moves eastward through the southern Plains, warm moist air ahead of the cold front will combine with the colder air and drier air moving in behind the boundary. So the end result is severe weather. There will also be tremendous turning of wind direction with height in the atmosphere. For example winds at the surface will be from the south and southeast. But west and southwest winds aloft. That turning could prove sufficient in addition to strong winds aloft to produce tornadoes, some strong/violent tomorrow from Little Rock to Jonesboro, Arkadelphia and Shreveport. In addition winds of 80 mph and hail 2 inches or more in diameter is likely with this severe outbreak.

I also have snow details to talk about including winter storm watches. More updates shortly.

Jim

[wx247]

Hey Jim... what do you think about severe potential (mainly hail I am almost certain of that) farther north into the Tulsa,OK and Joplin,MO vacinity?

Thanks!
Garrett

[WXBUFFJIM]

But it will be less of a severe threat up there in Tulsa and Ok City where cooler more stable air will be in place. So the main severe threat will be large hail and of course almost all thunderstorms have lightning and very heavy rain. So that is certainly an issue.

But the most significant severe threat is south of Ok City from Norman south through Ardmore and into Dallas Fort Worth where hail to softball size is possible. In tulsa though hail to nickel and dime size is possible. That's the colder and more stable boundary layer or surface temps. Thus less severe in Tulsa than farther south.

In Joplin, MO, mostly just general thunderstorms if any will occur there at this time. Maybe some small hail, but no big time severe there at this time.

Jim

[wx247]

Thanks for the info. I got some info. this morning which was suggesting a the threat of hail was moving farther north... Joplin and Tulsa were specifically mentioned with the threat of large hail in that update as well, so I thought I would get a second opinion.