"Surprise" Severe Weather Strikes GA Today (Friday

[dvdweatherwizard]

I was just perusing the local weather events that happened today around my region, and I found this long list of severe reports from the NWS in Peachtree City.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
850 PM EST FRI DEC 10 2004

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0215 PM HAIL NICKELSVILLE 34.60N 84.87W
12/10/2004 0.75 INCH GORDON GA LAW ENFORCEMENT

0257 PM HAIL ARMUCHEE 34.39N 85.18W
12/10/2004 0.75 INCH FLOYD GA COUNTY OFFICIAL

0301 PM HAIL ROME 34.26N 85.19W
12/10/2004 0.75 INCH FLOYD GA PUBLIC

0303 PM HAIL SHANNON 34.34N 85.09W
12/10/2004 0.88 INCH FLOYD GA PUBLIC

0304 PM HAIL 5 N ROME 34.34N 85.19W
12/10/2004 0.75 INCH FLOYD GA PUBLIC

0304 PM HAIL 4 N ROME 34.32N 85.19W
12/10/2004 0.75 INCH FLOYD GA PUBLIC

0305 PM HAIL SHANNON 34.34N 85.09W
12/10/2004 1.00 INCH FLOYD GA PUBLIC

0315 PM HAIL 7 NE MARIETTA 34.02N 84.45W
12/10/2004 0.75 INCH COBB GA TRAINED SPOTTER

0315 PM HAIL 5 NE ELLIJAY 34.74N 84.42W
12/10/2004 0.75 INCH GILMER GA PUBLIC

0316 PM HAIL SHANNON 34.34N 85.09W
12/10/2004 1.00 INCH FLOYD GA PUBLIC

0320 PM HAIL KENNESAW 34.02N 84.62W
12/10/2004 0.75 INCH COBB GA PUBLIC

0325 PM HAIL MARIETTA 33.95N 84.54W
12/10/2004 0.88 INCH COBB GA PUBLIC

0328 PM HAIL CALHOUN 34.49N 84.94W
12/10/2004 0.88 INCH GORDON GA PUBLIC

0328 PM HAIL ROME 34.26N 85.19W
12/10/2004 0.88 INCH FLOYD GA PUBLIC

0330 PM HAIL CHAMBLEE 33.89N 84.30W
12/10/2004 0.88 INCH DEKALB GA TRAINED SPOTTER

0330 PM HAIL WOODSTOCK 34.10N 84.51W
12/10/2004 0.75 INCH CHEROKEE GA PUBLIC

0347 PM HAIL ACWORTH 34.06N 84.68W
12/10/2004 0.75 INCH COBB GA PUBLIC

0358 PM HAIL GAINESVILLE 34.29N 83.83W
12/10/2004 0.88 INCH HALL GA PUBLIC

0400 PM HAIL HOGANSVILLE 33.17N 84.90W
12/10/2004 0.75 INCH TROUP GA PUBLIC

0405 PM HAIL SARGENT 33.43N 84.87W
12/10/2004 0.88 INCH COWETA GA PUBLIC

0407 PM HAIL 3 NW BUFORD 34.15N 84.04W
12/10/2004 0.75 INCH GWINNETT GA TRAINED SPOTTER

0408 PM HAIL LA GRANGE 33.04N 85.03W
12/10/2004 1.00 INCH TROUP GA PUBLIC

0410 PM HAIL SARGENT 33.43N 84.87W
12/10/2004 0.88 INCH COWETA GA PUBLIC

0411 PM HAIL 10 N GAINESVILLE 34.44N 83.83W
12/10/2004 1.00 INCH HALL GA PUBLIC

0425 PM TSTM WND DMG TYRONE 33.47N 84.60W
12/10/2004 FAYETTE GA AMATEUR RADIO

SEVERAL TREES DOWN

0455 PM TSTM WND DMG COVINGTON 33.60N 83.85W
12/10/2004 NEWTON GA LAW ENFORCEMENT

COUPLE OF TREES DOWN

0455 PM HAIL MCDONOUGH 33.45N 84.14W
12/10/2004 0.88 INCH HENRY GA PUBLIC

0514 PM TSTM WND DMG GRIFFIN 33.24N 84.27W
12/10/2004 SPALDING GA PUBLIC

PART OF ROOF SEPARATED FROM WALL BY WIND

0730 PM HAIL CEDARTOWN 34.02N 85.26W
12/10/2004 0.75 INCH POLK GA PUBLIC

ALSO STRONG WINDS


&&

$$

JRN

However, when I went back to see how many warnings were issued for this event that occurred, I was rather surprised to see that they had issued a grand total ZERO warnings for any of these reports. I don't ever recall seeing that many severe reports and NONE of them had a severe thunderstorm warning that I could find. However, I found that a great deal of "significant weather alerts" were issued instead. I don't think all offices issue these "significant weather alerts", so some of you might not be familar with what they are. They are issued when "WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 TO 50 MPH...HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN THE SIZE OF
DIMES...OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED." It seems like in this case Peachtree City underestimated the strength of the storms that were occurring in their area. However, then again, many of the hail reports were "public" reports, and perhaps the "public" made the hail stones a bit larger than what actually occurred. I suppose we will never know, but regardless of whether they should have been issuing warnings for these or not, this won't look good in the statistics to have 29 severe weather reports go unwarned. I'd be especially interested to hear what the GA people on this forum who were monitoring what happened, especially someone like SouthernWx, thought about what happened there today. Unfortunately I was away from my computer when this occurred, so I missed monitoring it on the radar.

[dvdweatherwizard]

Well, I also just noticed that Tennessee had a lot of hail reports occur today as well. So, I decided to check to see if either of the NWS offices in Morristown or Nashville were issuing warnings for those storms. I found that in fact they had issued a great deal of warnings today (mostly for dime or larger hail), and of course, it looks like those were verified based on the actual reports of dime or larger hail. So, I guess the question remains, what happened to Peachtree City today?

[dvdweatherwizard]

As a final follow-up to this, here were the AFD's issued by Peachtree City from the morning as well as the afternoon, so we can try to get an idea of what they were thinking........

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
535 AM EST FRI DEC 10 2004

.SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH AREA TODAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HEADS
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE MID U.S. MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY. TORNADO WATCH FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL GA WILL BE
CANCELLED BY 400 AM. THUNDERSTORMS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AT THIS TIME.
SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE OVER N GA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
DUE TO LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WITH A POSSIBLE MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE FAR N COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...
NO CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...LOWER DEW POINTS SPREADING OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WILL HELP TO DRY OUT LOWER LAYERS OF ATMOSPHERE. PATCHY MVFR
CEILINGS THIS MORNING ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AS SURFACE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL GA. FOR AFTERNOON...MOSTLY MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. VISIBILITY GENERALLY UNRESTRICTED EXCEPT FOR
LOCAL 3SM IN FOG THIS MORNING. WEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH
AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATLANTA 63 40 48 36 / 30 30 10 00
ATHENS 67 44 51 35 / 30 30 10 00
GAINESVILLE 63 42 47 34 / 50 30 20 00
ROME 60 41 48 31 / 50 50 30 00
COLUMBUS 69 43 50 37 / 10 10 10 00
MACON 71 44 53 33 / 20 10 10 00
&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$
BDL
41


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
545 PM EST FRI DEC 10 2004

.SHORT TERM...
AREA OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED OVER
NORTHEAST ALABAMA INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA AT THE MOMENT...ISOLATED
REPORTS OF HAIL. WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH GOOD CHANCE
POPS FOR EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPPER OFF DURING
THE EVENING WITH BEST UPPER SUPPORT PULLING NORTHEAST OF THE STATE.
HOWEVER WITH GOOD WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND COLDER
AIR POURING INTO THE STATE COULD SQUEEZE OUT A RAIN/SNOW MIX EXTREME
NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BEFORE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS
TIME...MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE AND PLAN TO ONLY
GO WITH CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME OF COLDEST AIR SETTLING
IN OVER THE AREA. LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 20S AND HIGHS 40S
AND 50S. YET ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES STATE FRIDAY. PLAN TO CONTINUE
DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.
&&

.AVIATION...A FEW SHOWERS OVER EAST ALABAMA SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY
AFTER THE SUN SETS. SHOULD SEE 4 THSD FT SCT-BKN THROUGH THE
EVENING...BUT THE LOWER SC ACROSS NORTH MS AND WEST TN SHOULD ARRIVE
ATL AROUND 06Z. RIGHT NOW BASES MOSTLY 25 HND FT...BUT SHOULD BE
CLOSER TO 15 HND FT OVERNIGHT. SC CONTINUES SATURDAY BUT SHOULD LIFT
TO 25 HND FT DURING THE MORNING. WINDS CONTINUE WEST TO NORTHWEST 10
TO 15 KNOTS BUT A LITTLE HIGHER AND GUSTY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATLANTA 41 47 36 54 / 30 10 00 00
ATHENS 43 50 35 56 / 30 10 00 00
GAINESVILLE 42 46 34 53 / 30 20 00 00
ROME 40 47 31 58 / 50 30 00 00
COLUMBUS 43 49 37 57 / 10 10 00 00
MACON 44 52 33 58 / 10 10 00 00
&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$



I find the statement, "isolated reports of hail" in the afternoon AFD a little interesting. All of the 29 severe weather reports except one occurred prior to the 545 pm issuance of this AFD, and Peachtree City had issued a Preliminary Storm Report prior to the one I posted 15 minutes before the issuance of the afternoon AFD that contained 26 of the severe weather reports, so they new it was occurring. I guess this is just a difference of opinion, but to me, 26 separate severe weather reports in my area of responsibility would be more than "isolated".

However, I just realized something I might have overlooked. Typically Peachtree City issues their AFDs sooner than 545 pm, and then they append the aviation portion of the discussion on later, like around 545. So, perhaps when the forecaster was writing the AFD, they were not aware of all of these reports coming in. I guess we can only speculate. Usually the AFD is issued first without the aviation section and then re-issued later with the aviation section attached, but for some reason today, I could only find the AFD with the aviation section at 545, so we may never know when the public section of the AFD was actually written. The hail reports did not start until 257 pm, so it is indeed possible that there were only "isolated" reports occurring when that part of the AFD was written.

[NorthGaWeather]

Well FFC has a habit of blowing severe weather events. Since I really started paying attention to the weather back in 1994 FFC has blown over 50 SVR WX events which is alot. The biggest was Palm Sunday with the famous "Showers and isolated thunderstorms" wording in the forecast as a supercell was producing an F4 over Bartow County. All the way to this week where they missed two events. The first came yesterday when supercells developed along the warm front in Georgia. A tornado watch was issued and many severe thunderstorm warnings also were issued. Today in the AFD and HWO issued this morning mentioned no hazardous weather. When anyone with knowledge of weather could have seen what was about to happen. There were severe thunderstorm warnings issued today but some of the reports did go unwarned. You are correct FFC often underestimates the strength of storms and it has cost lifes in the past. I can't tell you how many times I know of spotters that reported severe weather and FFC told them they didn't see anything on radar, while an F2 is on the ground. This happened in 2002. I talked with a forecaster at FFC and relayed numerous spotters reports of a tornado on the ground and public calls of homes destroyed and injuries yet FFC told me nothing was happening on radar and it didn't require a severe thunderstorm warning. Well that tornado turned out to be a 25 mile track F2 with several injuries. I have no faith in FFC now and I'm scared to sleep at night when severe weather is a possibility.

[NorthGaWeather]

Also the AFD was issued at 545 PM. The never issued anything before then so the reports were already out.

[dvdweatherwizard]

Well FFC has a habit of blowing severe weather events. Since I really started paying attention to the weather back in 1994 FFC has blown over 50 SVR WX events which is alot. The biggest was Palm Sunday with the famous "Showers and isolated thunderstorms" wording in the forecast as a supercell was producing an F4 over Bartow County. All the way to this week where they missed two events. The first came yesterday when supercells developed along the warm front in Georgia. A tornado watch was issued and many severe thunderstorm warnings also were issued. Today in the AFD and HWO issued this morning mentioned no hazardous weather. When anyone with knowledge of weather could have seen what was about to happen. There were severe thunderstorm warnings issued today but some of the reports did go unwarned. You are correct FFC often underestimates the strength of storms and it has cost lifes in the past. I can't tell you how many times I know of spotters that reported severe weather and FFC told them they didn't see anything on radar, while an F2 is on the ground. This happened in 2002. I talked with a forecaster at FFC and relayed numerous spotters reports of a tornado on the ground and public calls of homes destroyed and injuries yet FFC told me nothing was happening on radar and it didn't require a severe thunderstorm warning. Well that tornado turned out to be a 25 mile track F2 with several injuries. I have no faith in FFC now and I'm scared to sleep at night when severe weather is a possibility.

This is very interesting information that I appreciate you posting. I actually lived in Peachtree City for about 14 years or so, and I went elementary through high school there. Since I've been interested in weather since elementary school, I've kept up pretty closely with FFC over the years as well. I too have always gotten the impression that they're different from the other offices around them, but I always wondered if it was just me or if I was really noticing something.

I remember when the tornado watch was issued yesterday that I went back and looked at their afternoon AFD, and all they had mentioned were some lingering scattered showers. It definitely seemed like a miss to me as well.

One question for you. You mentioned that there were in fact some warnings issued today. I actually couldn't find any at all from Peachtree City. I found lots of warnings from Morristown and Nashville, but when I checked the http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/ga/allwarnings.html website earlier today, which is what I use to check warnings, I didn't see any. However, when I looked at http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/ga/special.html, I saw that FFC had in fact issued a whole bunch of those "significant weather alert" things. It's possible that the warnings didn't get posted on the website though. I've noticed that happens every once in a while. So basically my question is, where did you see that FFC actually had severe thunderstorm warnings out? I'd like to believe that they had at least one out. Actually, when I first checked for the warnings, I honestly thought there was a problem with the website because I couldn't believe they let 29 severe reports go unwarned.

[NorthGaWeather]

I saw them on the kamala.cod.edu/svr site. They issued several warnings. FFC tends to underestimate or never see severe events coming together but then starts to hammer it once it starts, which gives the public no lead time until the severe weather is on them.

[dvdweatherwizard]

I saw them on the kamala.cod.edu/svr site. They issued several warnings. FFC tends to underestimate or never see severe events coming together but then starts to hammer it once it starts, which gives the public no lead time until the severe weather is on them.

Wow, thanks for that website. I have bookmarked it to use in conjunction with the noaa iwin site. I don't understand why not a single one of those warnings was posted on the noaa iwin site. I think they should have been. Something must have malfunctioned. Well, I feel a little better now knowing that some of this can at least be explained away by the malfunction.

[SouthernWx]

The Peachtree City WSFO tends to be too conservative when it comes to severe weather.....and sadly, its been that way for many years.

Before I came onboard the internet in 2000, I always got far better severe wx info from the WSFO in Birmingham than Atlanta (fortunately I lived close enough to the Alabama line to recieve the NOAA WxRadio broadcasts from the transmitter atop Mt Cheaha (south of Anniston).

The most vivid example of FFC blowing severe wx events was the deadly March 20, 1998 F3 (IMO F4) tornado that tore across northern Hall and White counties (near Lake Lanier) just before dawn. Even though there was a clear doppler indication (velocity couplet) displayed on the KFFC nexrad, no tornado warning was issued until the tornado had lifted back into the storm clouds....and 13 people were dead

I was totally stunned at the lack of disciplinary action taken against WSFO staff on duty that morning by the National Weather Service..... but since SPC also dropped the ball (no TOR WATCH) in effect at time of the tornado, it was a total forecasting breakdown that led to unneccesary fatalities.

During the event the other evening...I saw an extremely impressive HP supercell cross from Bartow to Pickens/ southeastern Gilmer counties; it exibited both a hook and storm structure of a tornadic supercell, yet no tornado warning was ever issued by WSFO FFC (a SVR TSTORM warning was issued AFTER the storm passed over Jasper, Georgia into Gilmer county....and was beginning to weaken).

[therock1811]

Well here's the thing about the IWIN. Every few hours or so, the webmaster or, alternatively, an automated program, clear all of the old warnings off the site. So, if the severe weather was from say, 12-3pm, but you don't go to look at the warnings on IWIN until 7pm, you don't find anything. Just something to keep in mind. The no warning display isn't always because of the office not issuing anything.