Active Weather Returns to TX

[jeff]

Sub-tropical jet along with short wave trough spelling a wet day across much of TX. Rainfall has averaged 1-2 inches from College Station to Matagorda Bay this morning. 88D's showing main batch of lift along and S of San Antonio currently moving ENE at 25mph. Lightening data showing a few strikes with the activity between KSAT and KCRP. Low level jet increasing above the shallow air layer at the surface will bring elevated instability into the coastal sections from Victoria to Lake Charles tonight with thunderstorms becoming more possible.

Short wave will be east of the state by early Sun. morning with skies clearing by mid morning over most of the state.

All guidance insists on a short wave in the developing WNW to NW flow aloft apreading across SW OK and NW TX by mid to late afternoon. Very steep lapse rates along with ascent from short wave appears to be enough to touch off a round of strong to severe thunderstorms (hail being the main threat) over SW OK into NC TX during the afternoon and evening with this activity spreading SE toward the TX coast overnight. I believe thunderstorms will be driven by heating with a weakening trend after dark, however should a well developed cold pool form then some weak form of a complex or MCS may reach SE TX by late evneing or early Monday morning.