Weather Watch box.. likely severe thunderstorm is possible across N LA into MS within the next 1-2 hours (See latest SPC MCD for details).
Atmosphere continues to destabilize with dewpoints in the low to mid 60's and surface temps pushing to upper 70's and low 80's. Cold front currently over EC TX will move into W LA within the next 2-3 hours with strong convergence along boundary. Thunderstorms should fire within band of enhanced cumulus field over NW LA into NW MS. Severe threat will be mainly large hail, although a few damaging gust will be possible. Storms will become much more active overnight as a line or band moves ESE across MS, AL, and GA and SSW low level jet increases.
West over TX temps. have warmed to 90 at San Antonio, 83 at Hou, and 95 at Laredo this afternoon. Dry line currently along a line from KCLL to KVCT with the cold front from KCLL to KSHV. Visible satellite images show enhanced but capped Cu field from near CLL to NW LA along and just ahead of surface frontal boundary. Degree of heating is resulting in CAPE of 2500 J/kg over a large part of E and SE TX, however this air mass is strongly capped with over 100 J/kg of CIHN. Moisture is also extremely limited to below 950mb so I do not expect anything to fire over TX. However, given the degree of instability if something were to get going it would go severe quickly.
South Severe Threat
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South Severe Threat
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Severe Thunderstorm Watchbox issued from C AL to NW LA.
Thunderstorms have developed over C MS along and ahead of approaching cold front. Surface heating and strong moisture advection has resulted in SBCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg over much of the watchbox area iwth MUCAPE of 1800-2200 J/Kg. Capping continues to weaken over AL and MS and cumulus clouds are showing greater depth over C MS. Thunderstorms should continue to develop and increase in intensity and coverage through the mid evening hours as capping is broken and stroms organize in the 40-50 kts of WSW shear. Main threat will be large hail, however after dark the threat will gradually transition into a wind event as the low level jet increases.
Westward over LA: KSHV 88D clearly shows advancing frontal boundary and visible indicates increasing cumulus enhancement along boundary. Capping remains fairly strong over this region with 40-60 J/kg of CINH. Given more heating surface based parcels should be able to breech the cap over the next 2-3 hours resulting in rapid thunderstorm development. RUC likes the idea of backbuilding thunderstorms from W MS into NE and eventually WC LA by early evening. Storms in this region will likely be more isolated due to the degree of capping, however there is more CAPE to work with so very large hail and damaging winds will be possible. Given the very dry mid levels over W LA any stroms that form may produce damaging macroburst and microburst
Thunderstorms have developed over C MS along and ahead of approaching cold front. Surface heating and strong moisture advection has resulted in SBCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg over much of the watchbox area iwth MUCAPE of 1800-2200 J/Kg. Capping continues to weaken over AL and MS and cumulus clouds are showing greater depth over C MS. Thunderstorms should continue to develop and increase in intensity and coverage through the mid evening hours as capping is broken and stroms organize in the 40-50 kts of WSW shear. Main threat will be large hail, however after dark the threat will gradually transition into a wind event as the low level jet increases.
Westward over LA: KSHV 88D clearly shows advancing frontal boundary and visible indicates increasing cumulus enhancement along boundary. Capping remains fairly strong over this region with 40-60 J/kg of CINH. Given more heating surface based parcels should be able to breech the cap over the next 2-3 hours resulting in rapid thunderstorm development. RUC likes the idea of backbuilding thunderstorms from W MS into NE and eventually WC LA by early evening. Storms in this region will likely be more isolated due to the degree of capping, however there is more CAPE to work with so very large hail and damaging winds will be possible. Given the very dry mid levels over W LA any stroms that form may produce damaging macroburst and microburst
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Storms going gangbusters this evening from WC LA into E AL along and ahead of surface cold front. Very large hail including a 4.25 inch diameter report from C LA remains the main threat with these storms.
Severe threat should continue for the next several hours as storms organize into lines and segments and move generally ESE. Damaging winds threat may increase later this evening over SE LA into SC MS and SW AL as the low level jet increases and 925 to 850mb winds increase from the S.
Suspect we may see a new weather watch for areas south of WW 49 later this evening.
Severe threat should continue for the next several hours as storms organize into lines and segments and move generally ESE. Damaging winds threat may increase later this evening over SE LA into SC MS and SW AL as the low level jet increases and 925 to 850mb winds increase from the S.
Suspect we may see a new weather watch for areas south of WW 49 later this evening.
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