Possible severe weather for parts of Florida

[EDR1222]

000
FXUS62 KMLB 161507
AFDMLB

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE MELBOURNE FL
1006 AM EST WED MAR 16 2005

.DISCUSSION...

...FAST MOVING STORMS WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER ON TODAY...

THROUGH THIS EVENING...DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF LOOKS LIKE IT WAS HANDLED DECENT BY THE GFS. CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS RECENTLY BEEN EXPANDING. GFS MOVES THE
LOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING SWATH OF
STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS.

MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE A RAPID MOVEMENT OF
CONVECTION INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN SECTIONS. GFS SHOWS
925 MB WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 50 KNOTS THERE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
12Z TBW SOUNDING SHOWING IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL SHEAR...WITH A
SUBSTANTIAL CAP. MOISTURE INCREASING BELOW THE INVERSION SUGGESTS
THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPIDLY RELEASED INSTABILITY OR AT LEAST CONTINUED
SUPPORT OF THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AS IT TRANSLATES INTO THE AREA.

WILL BEEF UP WORDING IN THE HWO AND ZONES. HIGHLIGHT WILL BE ON
FAST MOVING NATURE OF THIS EVENT WHICH COULD CATCH PEOPLE OFF
GUARD. STRENGTH OF WIND FIELDS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS...BUT WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING BY JUST
TO OUR NORTH...THINK THAT LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT (AND NOT VEER QUITE AS FAST AS THE MODEL SHOWS).
THEREFORE THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND THE THREAT
FOR A FEW TORNADOES EXISTS TOO.

NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EVEN AFTER FLOW BECOMES MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL TONIGHT...THERE SHOULD BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER AT LEAST INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS...AND MAYBE EVEN THE
SOUTH.

PLAN TO ALSO MENTION WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY AS SURFACE
HEATING/MIXING PRODUCES SOME WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 25-30 MPH.

&&

.MARINE...STRONG ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH DEVELOPING LOW SO LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE WIND FORECAST. WILL MENTION HIGHER WINDS/SEAS WITH
STORMS LATE TODAY.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGLER BEACH-JUPITER INLET.

[feederband]

Looks like rough day today.

[Rainband]

Looks like most of it will be north of Tampa but Severe weather is possible everywhere.

[HurricaneGirl]

It's coming right for us!
http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/radmasterbottom.pl?Florida

[feederband]

Winds are picking up big time around here yet the storms are still way out , although it seems that storms could pop up at anytime.