I have been wondering for quite some time how the CPC derives their composite analogs. Do they base it on what past dates had the most similar weather pattern to the current pattern (0 hr) or do they base it on the dates with the most similarity to what the model is predicting at a later date? I would presume if it is based on the 0 hr setup, they would then project out an average of the pattern for the 5 closest matches.
I hope that someone has a definitive answer on this!
