HIGH RISK will be needed and also a tornado watch for TX-MS

[chadtm80]

Looks like another bust, high risk has been removed and nothing more than isolated tornadoes expected now, with maybe a strong tornado or two. This line looks really weak and is mostly not severe at this point. Mostly a damaging wind and hail threat.

Never saw the reason for the high risk, moderate would have covered it, and if the line doesn't strengthen soon, that may be too much as well.

Always best to err on the side of cautious

[Brent]

The high risk has been removed... SPC jumped the gun AGAIN. I've been trying hard to defend them, but this is, what, 3-4 busts in the last 2 weeks? I'm not even sure a moderate is justified. All I see is a squall line with a few embedded rotating storms. When I think of high risk I think of numerous supercells producing large violent tornadoes.

[jkt21787]

Looks like another bust, high risk has been removed and nothing more than isolated tornadoes expected now, with maybe a strong tornado or two. This line looks really weak and is mostly not severe at this point. Mostly a damaging wind and hail threat.

Never saw the reason for the high risk, moderate would have covered it, and if the line doesn't strengthen soon, that may be too much as well.

Always best to err on the side of cautious

That's very true, but I saw some things this morning before the high risk was even issued that worried me, and that was precip breaking out across the entire MS River Valley, mostly stratiform rain and elevated hail producing thunderstorms. It wasn't as bad in the updated high risk, but I think they should have waited until things evolved, and upgraded at 20z if necessary, and they would have seen it wasn't. I even heard that SPC hesitated on the high risk right before issuing it (after the inital MCD), but went ahead with it any way. You have to admit they have had rather poor performance lately with their outlooks, and this certainly won't help them.

Everything was in place for a major tornado outbreak, strong wind fields and dynamics, plentiful moisture, powerful approaching shortwave, negatively tilted. However, the morning rain and clouds should have been enough of a question mark to forego the high risk. The one area that could have some problems is South of I-20, where cap is in place and little rain has fallen, and there is some substantial instability. We could see a few supercells and tornadoes along with a strenghtening squall line there.

Moderate still justified at this point, but high isn't. If things don't start soon the moderate should be gone on 01z.

[Lindaloo]

Hopefully Lindaloo is watching this closely and is safe...

I am yoda!

Stay safe Kelly, Duckie and David!