Wed., 9th of April 08 till Friday 11th outbreak-thread

[RL3AO]

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN TAYLOR AND SOUTHERN JONES COUNTIES...

AT 315 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 3 MILES
SOUTH OF MERKEL...OR 18 MILES WEST OF ABILENE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
31 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
MERKEL BY 320 PM CDT...
STITH AND 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NOODLE BY 330 PM CDT...
TRUBY AND HODGES BY 340 PM CDT...
HAWLEY BY 345 PM CDT...

[RL3AO]

For the cell next to the first TOR

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
323 PM CDT WED APR 9 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN NOLAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN FISHER COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT

* AT 319 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 4 MILES EAST OF
ROSCOE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 22 MPH.

* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...
SWEETWATER AND GANNON BY 330 PM CDT...
LAKE SWEETWATER BY 335 PM CDT...
BUSBY BY 345 PM CDT...
LONGWORTH BY 355 PM CDT...

[RL3AO]

The two TORs

[RL3AO]

Strange MD



..PETERS.. 04/09/2008

...PLEASE SEE http://WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

31629741 33909749 34699755 34889520 34439501 32919510
31979554 31939597

NNNN

[RL3AO]

..A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN TAYLOR AND SOUTHERN JONES COUNTIES...

AT 324 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR STITH...OR 13 MILES WEST OF ABILENE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 33 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
HODGES AND 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TRUBY BY 335 PM CDT...
HAWLEY BY 345 PM CDT...

[CrazyC83]

Probably going to be another PDS watch.

[RL3AO]

Probably going to be another PDS watch.

Too busy to write out an MD? Or maybe they realized "we haven't issued an MD for the watch we are about to issue"?

[CrazyC83]

Probably going to be another PDS watch.

Too busy to write out an MD? Or maybe they realized "we haven't issued an MD for the watch we are about to issue"?

Probably rushing into the watch.

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0602
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0333 PM CDT WED APR 09 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN TX AND SRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON

VALID 092033Z - 092100Z

CORRECTED TO ADD DISCUSSION

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS AND
A WATCH ISSUANCE WILL BE COORDINATED BETWEEN THE SPC AND THE
AFFECTED LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES SHORTLY.

RECENT ACARS SOUNDINGS AROUND FORT WORTH SHOWED CAP CONTINUING TO
LIFT. NEW TSTMS HAD DEVELOPED NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY IN COOKE
COUNTY...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY.

..PETERS.. 04/09/2008


ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

31629741 33909749 34699755 34889520 34439501 32919510
31979554 31939597

[brunota2003]

They apparently pressed the "enter" button too soon. It can be a pesky little bugger.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON

VALID 092033Z - 092100Z

CORRECTED TO ADD DISCUSSION

[RL3AO]

New warning for cell with spotted tornado.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN JONES COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN TAYLOR COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT

* AT 332 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 5 MILES NORTH OF
TYE...OR ABOUT 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF ABILENE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
24 MPH.

* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...
HODGES BY 340 PM CDT...
NORTH SIDE OF ABILENE BY 340 PM CDT...
HAWLEY AND IMPACT BY 345 PM CDT...
HAMBY BY 400 PM CDT...
NUGENT AND THE INTERSECTION OF US-180 AND FARM ROAD 600 BY 410 PM
CDT...

[CrazyC83]

Watch issued for north Texas and southern Oklahoma - probably PDS but awaiting.

[gboudx]

Crap.

[RL3AO]

No reason to think it won't be a PDS.

[brunota2003]

It is NOT a PDS

Tornado Watch #179
Issued/Updated: Apr 09, 2008 at 2046 UTC
Expires: Apr 10, 2008 at 0400 UTC
Tornado Watch 179 Status Message has not been issued

[RL3AO]

Shows what I know.

[CrazyC83]

It might be, they tend to add that in a couple minutes later.

[RL3AO]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 179
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
350 PM CDT WED APR 9 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
LARGE PART OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 350 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHEAST OF ARDMORE
OKLAHOMA TO 45 MILES SOUTH OF CORSICANA TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 177...WW 178...

DISCUSSION...VERY FAVORABLE SUPERCELL CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS
WATCH. INHIBITION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED NEXT COUPLE HOURS. IN ADDITION
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED NWRN TX AND WILL CONTINUE
INCREASING IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE TOWARD NCENTRAL TX.
WITH MLCAPE OF 2000 J/KG COUPLED WITH STRONG VEERING SHEAR
PROFILES...ANY SUPERCELL WILL HAVE POTENTIAL OF TORNADOES AND LARGE
HAIL. A STRONG TORNADO IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE CONDITIONS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...HALES

[CrazyC83]

NOT a PDS, surprisingly.

[CrazyC83]

Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
High (70%)


Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Mod (40%)



Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
High (70%)


Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Mod (40%)



Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
High (80%)


Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Mod (40%)


Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (90%)



Exact same tornado probabilities as the last watch. Same forecaster too.