Severe weather Tuesday may 13th...30% hatched area already :

[Ed Mahmoud]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 322
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
350 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

LARGE PART OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 350 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
LAREDO TEXAS TO 45 MILES NORTHEAST OF ABILENE TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 320...WW 321...

DISCUSSION...AIR MASS HAS RECOVERED INTO WRN TX AHEAD OF UPPER LOW
OVER SERN NM. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL
TORNADOS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25025.


...HALES




BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 322
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
350 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

TORNADO WATCH 322 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC019-031-049-053-059-083-093-095-099-127-133-137-143-163-171-
193-253-259-265-267-271-281-283-299-307-319-323-325-327-333-363-
385-399-411-413-417-429-435-441-463-465-479-507-150400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0322.080514T2050Z-080515T0400Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BANDERA BLANCO BROWN
BURNET CALLAHAN COLEMAN
COMANCHE CONCHO CORYELL
DIMMIT EASTLAND EDWARDS
ERATH FRIO GILLESPIE
HAMILTON JONES KENDALL
KERR KIMBLE KINNEY
LAMPASAS LA SALLE LLANO
MASON MAVERICK MCCULLOCH
MEDINA MENARD MILLS
PALO PINTO REAL RUNNELS
SAN SABA SCHLEICHER SHACKELFORD
STEPHENS SUTTON TAYLOR
UVALDE VAL VERDE WEBB
ZAVALA


ATTN...WFO...EWX...CRP...SJT...FWD...

[Extremeweatherguy]

There are some very impressive supercells out in west-central Texas right now!

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/so ... e_loop.php

[srainhoutx]

Good view from WV Imagery this evening...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tropical/satpix ... v_loop.php

Strong ULL and winds in the Upper Levels screeming down the Great Basin

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0929
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0640 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX INTO CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 142340Z - 150115Z

THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS CAPABLE OF HAIL IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE ACROSS WW AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

RECENT TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR DATA INDICATE ELEVATED TSTMS
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM HARMON AND JACKSON
COUNTIES IN FAR SWRN OK SWWD INTO COTTLE AND KING COUNTIES IN TX.
THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A ZONE OF DEEP-LAYER FORCING
FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW MOVING INTO WRN TX. RUC
OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT A PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE
ATTENDANT TO THIS SYSTEM...LARGELY DUE TO MIDLEVEL COLD POOL OF -16
TO -18 C AT 500 MB. THIS INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH AN ELEVATED MOIST
LAYER AROUND 850-800 MB ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPES OF AROUND 500
J/KG.

AS UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES NEWD TONIGHT...EXPECT TSTMS TO ALSO SPREAD
ACCORDINGLY NEWD ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. A FEW OF THE MORE INTENSE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

..MEAD.. 05/14/2008

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0929.html

[Bunkertor]

Frankly - i didn´t expect so much activity today.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Clear hook on the cell in Llano and Blanco counties, and if it doesn't weaken, a tornado will pass near/North of Austin. Austin, when I left about a decade ago, already extended up I-35 into Williamson county, as far as suburbs and strip malls.

[Bunkertor]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
800 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

TXZ115-150130-
STEPHENS TX-
800 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
STEPHENS COUNTY

AT 800 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES NORTHEAST
OF BRECKENRIDGE TO 12 MILES NORTH OF CISCO...MOVING EAST AT 38 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE BRECKENRIDGE.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THESE STORMS.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING
FOR EASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3294 9896 3295 9856 3279 9856 3279 9858
3256 9857 3254 9856 3252 9858 3253 9905
TIME...MOT...LOC 0100Z 271DEG 33KT 3290 9876 3256 9891

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looking at radar, if possible tornado (no confirmed touchdown) doesn't weaken, it will cross I-35 between Round Rock and Austin

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
829 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0825 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 3 SE INKS LAKE STATE PA 30.69N 98.35W
05/14/2008 BURNET TX AMATEUR RADIO

[Ed Mahmoud]

Rotation and reflectivity on the Lake Travis cell both decreased, but now reflectivity is making a bit of a comeback, perhaps rotation will as well.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Wow. That cell NW of Austin has quite a hook on it right now!

[Ed Mahmoud]

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
842 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0825 PM TORNADO 19 N BURNET 31.04N 98.23W
05/14/2008 BURNET TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

BRIEF TOUCHDOWN RIPPED TREES FROM THE GROUND AT 3707 CR
101

Looks like it has cycled back up. Quite a hook indeed.

[Ed Mahmoud]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
902 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN TRAVIS COUNTY...
SOUTHERN WILLIAMSON COUNTY...

* UNTIL 945 PM CDT.

* AT 859 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD
NEAR LAGO VISTA...OR ABOUT 9 MILES WEST OF CEDAR PARK...MOVING EAST
AT 33 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
CEDAR PARK BY 915 PM CDT...
ANDERSON MILL BY 920 PM CDT...
WINDEMERE BY 935 PM CDT...
PFLUGERVILLE BY 940 PM CDT...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Llano county cell has 70 db reflectivity, and may be developing an inflow notch.


This should follow near the path of the previous supercell that has produced intermittent tornadoes, funnel clouds and hail and is now just West of Round Rock.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Those storms near Austin are some crazy hail producers! The radar has been indicating hail stones larger than 2.5" in diameter for quite some time now, with occasional estimates over 3.5" in diameter! If that cluster can hold on, then its ESE trajectory will take it right towards the northern parts of the Houston metro area later on tonight. We will have to watch its progression closely..

[Shoshana]

We're in Austin just south of Pflugerville and we've been seeing lots of lightning and now we are hearing rolling thunder. Lights are starting to flicker... oh... rain! Heavy and sudden.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Pflugerville in the clear, from this cell, anyway.

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM CDT FOR NORTH
CENTRAL BASTROP...EXTREME WEST CENTRAL LEE...EAST CENTRAL TRAVIS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL WILLIAMSON COUNTIES...

AT 1007 PM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO DETECT A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG ROTATION. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR
RICES CROSSING...OR 6 MILES EAST OF PFLUGERVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 24
MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
9 MILES SOUTH OF TAYLOR BY 1020 PM CDT...
COUPLAND BY 1025 PM CDT...
6 MILES NORTH OF ELGIN AND 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BEYARSVILLE BY 1030
PM CDT...

[Ed Mahmoud]

bed time

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0932
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1002 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL TX INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 322...323...

VALID 150302Z - 150430Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 322...323...CONTINUES.

THROUGH 04Z...THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST IN A
50-60 NM WIDE CORRIDOR FROM JUST E OF JCT EWD TO NEAR CLL.

AS OF 0245Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A CLUSTER OF STRONG
TO SEVERE TSTMS /ANCHORED ON THE S END BY A LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL/
FROM BELL COUNTY SWD INTO TRAVIS COUNTY WITH A GENERAL SYSTEM MOTION
OF 275/25 KT. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE ANCHOR
SUPERCELL IS MOVING ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
N OF AUS EWD TO NEAR CLL. AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY
REMAINS WARM AND QUITE MOIST WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. BASED
ON 00Z BRO/CRP SOUNDINGS...THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW LONG
STORMS WILL PERSIST GIVEN THE OBSERVED STRONG CAP.

THE LEDBETTER PROFILER INDICATES THAT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS GRADUALLY
INCREASING WITH KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR THE MAINTENANCE
OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. AND AS SUCH...A TORNADO OR TWO REMAINS
POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELL MOVING ACROSS WILLIAMSON AND TRAVIS COUNTIES
IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL. THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY TEND TO
INCREASE WITH TIME SHOULD ONGOING STORMS BETTER ORGANIZE A COLD
POOL.

FARTHER TO THE W...ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
FROM LLANO AND BURNETT COUNTIES WWD TO EDWARDS COUNTY TO THE N OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TRAILING THE ABOVE-MENTIONED STORMS. LARGE HAIL
AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS AS THESE STORMS CONTINUE EWD.

..MEAD.. 05/15/2008


ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...BRO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

[serenata09]

Lots of hail/wind damage in downtown Austin tonight. Reports of hail up to 5 inches in diameter.

[TexasSam]

This has to be one of the longest timed Tornado Watches I have ever seen outside of a tropical storm:

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 324
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
115 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
WESTERN AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA
EAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING FROM 115 AM UNTIL 1000 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
HUNTSVILLE TEXAS TO 55 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF EL DORADO
ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

EDIT

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 323...

DISCUSSION...TSTM CLUSTERS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS OVER E CNTRL AND
NE TX EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GENERALLY ENE THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING.
MODERATE WSW MID-LVL FLOW AND ASCENT ON SE SIDE OF EJECTING UPR
TROUGH... COUPLED WITH MOIST SSELY LOW-LVL FLOW SUGGEST POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLD TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO HAIL/WIND.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.

[Duddy]

Awesome! I can't wait for that weather to reach me. Should be hitting the central Texas coast at about 1PM.

[Duddy]

FXUS64 KHGX 150525
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1225 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2008

.AVIATION...
GIVEN THE MESO-SCALE FORCING OF EVENTS...THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL OF
THE FORECAST REMAINS MODERATE AT BEST. DO NOT HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE
IN THE MODEL FORECASTS...NEITHER THE GFS...RUC...NOR NAM. THE
MAIN ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR KCLL AND KUTS AND POSSIBLY KCXO TONIGHT. TOMORROW THE
THUNDERSTORM CONCERN WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD FROM KCXO AND THE BIG
AIRPORTS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THE COAST. WITH THE SUPERCELL AND
MCS DEVELOPMENT TO THE NORTHWEST...THE LOW-LEVEL JET WAS HELPING
TO GENERATE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE A CONCERN
THURSDAY MAINLY DUE TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.