Severe weather outbreak - May 29-31

[KWT]

RL3AO, I was just about to say its gone all queit on the tornado front then you post that up and now I have to retract that!

[Ed Mahmoud]

Derechos aren't as fun to track! =\

Maybe not, but a widespread area of 100 mph + windgusts is like a really big EF-1 or EF-2 tornado, if you think of it that way.

[RL3AO]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
432 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN GRAHAM COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...
CENTRAL SHERIDAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 515 PM CDT

* AT 428 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF HOXIE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 39 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
TASCO AROUND 450 PM CDT...
STUDLEY AROUND 500 PM CDT...
MORLAND AROUND 505 PM CDT...
PENOKEE AROUND 510 PM CDT...

[RL3AO]

[KWT]

Looks like thats the start of a hook trying to develop there?

[HarlequinBoy]

Derechos aren't as fun to track! =\

Maybe not, but a widespread area of 100 mph + windgusts is like a really big EF-1 or EF-2 tornado, if you think of it that way.

Trust me, I know.. I didn't have power for days after the Memphis 2003 Summer Windstorm.. and it was July and so hot!! 100mph winds battered the city and NW MS.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Memphis_Summer_Storm_of_2003

[KWT]

Or like going through a brief spell of category-1/2 hurricane force winds, think of it that way if you have to!

[RL3AO]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
451 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

NEC019-047-073-137-292200-
/O.CON.KGID.TO.W.0020.000000T0000Z-080529T2200Z/
BUFFALO NE-DAWSON NE-GOSPER NE-PHELPS NE-
451 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN
PHELPS...NORTHEASTERN GOSPER...SOUTHEASTERN DAWSON AND SOUTHWESTERN
BUFFALO COUNTIES...

AT 449 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OVERTON...OR 16 MILES NORTH
OF HOLDREGE...MOVING EAST AT 43 MPH.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Buffalo county couplet looks like it will pass quite close to Kearney.

[Ed Mahmoud]

12Z WRF precip fields, CAPE and helicity seem to favor North Central Kansas and South Central Nebraska, just to the West of the HIGH RISK, for the strongest storms.

The WRF suggests the warm front is well North of Kearney by then, not quite sure what the shallow inversion is unless it is some kind of mesoscale boundary. But that is a sick looking sounding.



Concordia across in Kansas doesn't look like a happy place this evening either...

I must say, I think the WRF precip and severe fields for this afternoon seem to be in the ballpark...

[Ed Mahmoud]

29,000 people and a U Nebraska campus w/ 7,000 students in Kearney...

NEC019-047-099-137-292230-
/O.CON.KGID.TO.W.0021.000000T0000Z-080529T2230Z/
BUFFALO NE-DAWSON NE-KEARNEY NE-PHELPS NE-
504 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN PHELPS...NORTHWESTERN KEARNEY...SOUTHEASTERN DAWSON AND
WESTERN BUFFALO COUNTIES...

AT 503 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 4 MILES
SOUTH OF ELM CREEK. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ELM CREEK...OR 12
MILES WEST OF KEARNEY...MOVING EAST AT 38 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO AMHERST
AND RIVERDALE

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 250 AND 282.

[RL3AO]

[KWT]

Yep that certainly looks like a hook, not the most defined I've ever seen but we shall see how it develops.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Might miss Kearney (barely) to the North, but they should be close enough for a really good view of it...

[Bunkertor]

A TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NEB AND SRN SD
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL
ALSO BE LIKELY WITH STORMS THAT INITIATE. A NEW WW MAY BECOME
NECESSARY NORTH OF TORNADO WATCH 386 LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW OVER SERN CO WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING NNEWD FROM THE LOW INTO WRN NEB AND SRN SD. A WARM FRONT
EXISTS NEAR THE NEB-SD STATE-LINE EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS WRN IA.
CUMULUS IS PRESENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS NRN NEB AND
THIS CU FIELD SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST INITIATION WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
WARM FRONT OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND STRONG INSTABILITY SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE SUPERCELLS. IN
ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A 40 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL
JET OVER ECNTRL NEB IS QUITE STRONG AND WILL FAVOR TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT. STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH
SUPERCELLS THAT PARALLEL THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NCNTRL AND NE NEB.




Edit : Yes severe thstrom watches increasing. Tornado watch within 20 minutes, i bet !

[CrazyC83]

Another new watch coming, probably PDS:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1083
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0507 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON

VALID 292207Z - 292230Z

VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUDS HAVE CONTINUED TO DISSIPATE NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDED EWD FROM A SURFACE LOW NEAR 30 NNW ONL
TO NWRN/WEST CENTRAL IA TO SERN IA. CU/TCU HAVE BECOME MORE ROBUST
ACROSS SERN SD...NEAR THE WARM FRONT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS AND A WATCH ISSUANCE WILL
BE COORDINATED BETWEEN THE SPC AND THE AFFECTED LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES SHORTLY.

..PETERS.. 05/29/2008


ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...LBF...

42929891 43439883 43609855 43579707 43539656 43039640
42619650 42309653 42299701 42799702

[Ed Mahmoud]

Might miss Kearney (barely) to the North, but they should be close enough for a really good view of it...

Quitting time. That cell will come very close, and it looks like a new cell is spinning up and will follow this one closely...

[RL3AO]

Possibly a strong tornado on the ground.

[CrazyC83]

NOT PDS...later arrival time? bowing out by then?

SEL7

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 387
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
525 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EXTREME NORTHWEST IOWA
EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 525 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 35 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
YANKTON SOUTH DAKOTA TO 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF SIOUX CITY IOWA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 384...WW 385...WW 386...

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SUGGEST THAT THE WARM FRONT IS LIFTING SLOWLY N OF THE MO RIVER FROM
NEB INTO SD. CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS SE SD AS THE LOW LEVELS
WARM/MOISTEN...WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR IS ALREADY FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS ALONG THE WARM FRONT...ALONG WITH LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH LATE EVENING.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26030.


...THOMPSON

[CrazyC83]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
527 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

NEC019-047-099-137-292315-
/O.CON.KGID.TO.W.0022.000000T0000Z-080529T2315Z/
BUFFALO NE-DAWSON NE-KEARNEY NE-PHELPS NE-
527 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN PHELPS...NORTHWESTERN KEARNEY...SOUTHEASTERN DAWSON AND
BUFFALO COUNTIES...

A TORNADO HAS BEEN REPORTED IN KEARNEY WITH DAMAGE.

ANOTHER STORM PRODUCING A POSSIBLE TORNADO IS LOCATED 12 MILES NORTH
OF FUNK.

AT 525 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR KEARNEY...MOVING EAST AT 34 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO POOLE
AND GIBBON

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 253 AND 288.

LAT...LON 4102 9888 4064 9877 4053 9945 4082 9949
TIME...MOT...LOC 2227Z 259DEG 30KT 4071 9909

$$