June 4-7: Severe wx (Omaha tornado update)

[wbug1]

Tornado warning and strong cell approaching Fredericksburg, VA. Another small thunderstorm has rapidly developed to the west of Washington, D. C.

[wbug1]

Tornado warning up southwest of Cincinnati, Ky.

[tidesong]

Story with picture of tree down in Baltimore City: http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/weathe ... 2591.story

That is, incidentally, about four blocks from where my boyfriend lives, and an area I was walking through quite frequently for the last three weeks. Figures that I would leave Baltimore the day before a significant event....

Also, a good preliminary summary: http://wrc.weatherplus.com/weathernews/ ... =mainclick

[wbug1]

Multiple tornado warnings and thunderstorms blowing up in Nebraska and Colorado.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
526 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN CASS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT.

* AT 522 PM CDT...A TORNADO WAS REPORTED NEAR MURRAY...OR 27 MILES
SOUTH OF OMAHA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 11 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MURRAY AND PLATTSMOUTH...

[CrazyC83]

SEL3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 453
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
540 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN HALF OF IOWA
PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM 540 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
TEKAMAH NEBRASKA TO 45 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CEDAR RAPIDS IOWA. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 447...WW 448...WW
449...WW 450...WW 451...WW 452...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING VICINITY E/W WARM FRONT WHERE
AIR MASS IS VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE. FAVORABLE VEERING SHEAR
PROFILES AND LOW LCLS SUPPORT TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AS ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS NWD THRU SRN IA/ERN NE.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24025.


...HALES

[btangy]

Very strong rotational couplet near Akron, CO. No confirmation of a tornado from spotters, emergency services, or the public yet though despite the well defined rotation on radar.

The National Weather Service in Denver has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
central Washington County in northeast Colorado

* until 515 PM MDT

* at 435 PM MDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado 3 miles
southwest of Akron. This storm was moving east at 29 mph.

* Locations in the warning include but are not limited to Platner...
Otis... midway and Akron.

A tornado may be shrouded by rain and hail in the Akron area. People
in Akron should take cover in a strong building now!

[Category 5]

They're going to upgrade to HIGH tomorrow.

Look at these, they're off the charts!

[wbug1]

White indicates the very top end? What is that index?

[btangy]

They're going to upgrade to HIGH tomorrow.

I agree as the signal in the SREF is very strong tomorrow. Looks like the shear, CAPE, and helicity are pointing to a very nasty and widespread outbreak tomorrow. The disturbance ejecting out of the Rockies is anomalously strong. The only thing that might get in the way is any MCS that develops tonight and stabilizes the region, but I think the high risk tomorrow will be for the northern part of the moderate risk they currently have in the Day 2 outlook, particularly E Nebraska and W Iowa. We'll see what they do tomorrow morning, but I think high risk is a very good bet along with a high probability of strong, long track tornadoes yet again.

EDIT: After reviewing the 15Z SREF, I think high risk will also be warranted in E Kansas as the cap erodes ahead of the cold front. Really good setup for some big time supercells tomorrow.

[CrazyC83]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
609 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2008

IAC129-042330-
/O.CON.KOAX.TO.W.0016.000000T0000Z-080604T2330Z/
MILLS IA-
609 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN MILLS COUNTY...

AT 604 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AND
STORM SPOTTERS CONFIRM A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 2 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF PACIFIC JUNCTION...OR 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
OMAHA...MOVING EAST AT 9 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...MALVERN.

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. THIS
STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES. IF YOU ARE
IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY!

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWEST IOWA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4110 9563 4100 9556 4091 9583 4100 9584
TIME...MOT...LOC 2309Z 256DEG 8KT 4097 9574

$$

DEE

[Bunkertor]

They're going to upgrade to HIGH tomorrow.

Look at these, they're off the charts!

Damn it ! Even a sigTOR of 20 or 30 is rather serious

[6SpeedTA95]

Tomorrow is going to be very interesting. The cap here in Oklahoma is going to be quite large, however, any initiation should rapidly go severe or tornadic.

[wbug1]

2313 6 S CHAMPION CHASE NE 4038 10171 TRAINED SPOTTERS SIGHTED TORNADO PICKING UP DEBRIS. (LBF)

[CrazyC83]

TORNADO WARNING
IAC129-137-050015-
/O.NEW.KOAX.TO.W.0017.080604T2326Z-080605T0015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
626 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL MILLS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST IOWA...
WEST CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST IOWA...

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT.

* AT 623 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A
TORNADIC STORM AND TRAINED SPOTTERS CONFIRM A TORNADO. THE TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 8 MILES WEST OF EMERSON...OR 31 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
OMAHA...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EMERSON AND RED OAK...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. THIS
STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VIOLENT TORNADOES. IF YOU ARE IN THE
PATH OF A TORNADO...TAKE COVER IN A SAFE PLACE IMMEDIATELY!

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR A PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF A BASEMENT IS NOT
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. GO TO
AN INTERIOR ROOM OR HALLWAY. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR
BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWEST IOWA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4109 9523 4100 9518 4096 9554 4103 9555
TIME...MOT...LOC 2326Z 254DEG 13KT 4099 9554

$$

DEE

[wbug1]

This doesn't exactly look good either.

I mean, the thunderstorms around Washington.

[Bunkertor]

Tomorrow is going to be very interesting. The cap here in Oklahoma is going to be quite large, however, any initiation should rapidly go severe or tornadic.

06/06/08 0z showing an area of strong vertical updraft reaching from the gulf to northern NE

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1209
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0608 PM CDT WED JUN 04 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO...SWRN NEB...NWRN KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 448...

VALID 042308Z - 050015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 448 CONTINUES.

TWO LONG-LIVED INTENSE SUPERCELLS WITH A HISTORY OF REPORTED
TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD ALONG STATIONARY
FRONTAL ZONE LOCATED FROM AROUND 20 S AKO TO NEAR HSI AS OF 23Z.
KINEMATIC/THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
SUSTAINABILITY OF THESE STORMS AS THEY LIKELY TRACK EWD ACROSS SWRN
NEB AND FAR NWRN KS. RECENT VAD PROFILER FROM GLD DEPICTS SLOWLY
INCREASE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH ENLARGING CYCLONICALLY-CURVED
HODOGRAPHS...AS SERN CO CYCLONE HAS INTENSIFIED WITH APPROACH OF
GREAT BASIN SHORT WAVE. RECENT SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATE GRADUALLY
INCREASING DEW POINTS /INTO THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS NWRN KS/ AS MOIST
AXIS CURLS NWWD. THUS...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-EVENING.

..GRAMS.. 06/04/2008


ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...

39530026 39360168 39550271 39940350 40340350 40630301
40940184 40960040 40649992

[CrazyC83]

SEL4
0-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 454...RESENT
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
735 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
DELAWARE
PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY
PARTS OF MARYLAND
PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
PARTS OF SOUTHERN OHIO
A LARGE PART OF VIRGINIA
A LARGE PART OF WEST VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 735 PM
UNTIL 100 AM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
HUNTINGTON WEST VIRGINIA TO 40 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF WALLOPS
VIRGINIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 447...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 449...TORNADO WATCH
NUMBER 450. WATCH NUMBER 447 449 450 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
735 PM EDT. CONTINUE...WW 448...WW 451...WW 452...WW 453...

DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/MOVE EWD
ACROSS WATCH AREA...PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS
ACTIVITY. WITH SHEAR REMAINING FAVORABLE AND MLCAPES TO 2000 J/KG S
OF BOUNDARIES...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH LINES AND MORE DESCRETE STORMS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035.


...HALES

[Bunkertor]

Has anyone any livecoverage / radio running ?

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1211
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0647 PM CDT WED JUN 04 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/SERN NEB...SRN IA...N-CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 451...453...

VALID 042347Z - 050045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 451...453...CONTINUES.

SEVERAL EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS PERSIST WITHIN LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
EVOLVING FROM GOSPER TO POLK COUNTY NEB...WITH MORE
ISOLATED/DISCRETE SUPERCELLS FROM MILLS TO UNION COUNTY IA AS OF
2340Z. RECENT PROFILER DATA ACROSS KS/FAR SRN NEB INDICATE THE LLJ
HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH LATEST RUC GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE /TO NEAR 60 KTS BY 03Z/. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN WAA ATOP OF THE STATIONARY FRONT/COMPOSITE OUTFLOW
LOCATED FROM NEAR HSI TO OTM AS OF 23Z...LIKELY AIDING IN AN
INCREASE OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...ENLARGED
CYCLONICALLY-CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SHOULD ENHANCE TORNADIC
POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY WITH DISCRETE STORMS THAT CAN REMAIN ANCHORED
TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

WITH TIME...BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING/INCREASING CIN SHOULD INHIBIT
INITIATION S OF THE FRONT. WHILE UPSCALE GROWTH OF EMERGING
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SHOULD RESULT IN PRIMARY TORNADO/HAIL THREATS
TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A SEVERE WIND THREAT AS SURFACE COLD POOL
INTENSIFIES.

..GRAMS.. 06/04/2008


ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...

41269180 40619168 40589270 40599406 40509558 40219720
39759954 40010003 40560024 41149973 41869819 42139569
42109355 41869202