Severe weather outbreak: June 17 - 19

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Dave
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#101 Postby Dave » Thu Jun 18, 2009 7:12 am

Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 459
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
730 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA
CENTRAL KENTUCKY

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 730 AM UNTIL
100 PM EDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
LOUISVILLE KENTUCKY TO 50 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF TERRE HAUTE
INDIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 457...WW 458...

DISCUSSION...MATURE BOW ECHO TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL IL IS LIKELY TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND TRACK INTO SOUTHERN IND AND
CENTRAL KY. STORMS ARE MOVING ALONG A STRONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT
AND SHOW CONSIDERABLE MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 31040.


...HART
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#102 Postby Dave » Thu Jun 18, 2009 7:15 am

I woke up to find this coming down at me...

Image

Yellow boxes are thunderstorm warnings.
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#103 Postby Dave » Thu Jun 18, 2009 7:31 am

Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 460
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
700 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN IOWA

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING FROM 700 AM UNTIL 1100 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF FORT DODGE IOWA TO 25 MILES NORTHEAST OF WATERLOO
IOWA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 457...WW 458...WW 459...

DISCUSSION...MATURE MCS/BOW MOVING GENERALLY EWD AT 50KT INTO NWRN
IA ATTM. FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF A
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH...AND ABUNDANT WARM/MOIST AIR STREAMING INTO THE AREA ON
50-60KT LLJ...SHOULD MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE BOW AS IT TRACKS ACROSS NRN IA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27045.


...CARBIN
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#104 Postby Dave » Thu Jun 18, 2009 7:33 am

Image
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Re: Severe weather: June 17 - 19

#105 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Jun 18, 2009 8:07 am

15% tornado risk introduced.

SPC AC 181239

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

VALID 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SD...SOUTHERN MN...MUCH OF IA...SOUTHERN
WI...NORTHERN IL...AND NORTHERN IND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...

ANOTHER VERY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE. SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS THE COUNTRY AFFECTING AREAS FROM THE PLAINS STATES TO
THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST.


...OH VALLEY INTO SOUTHEAST TODAY...
A MATURE AND FAST-MOVING BOW ECHO IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING EASTERN IL
AND WILL TRACK INTO IND SHORTLY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTH EDGE OF A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS INTO KY/TN THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LONGEVITY OF THIS
SYSTEM AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR...IT IS LIKELY THAT THE MCS
WILL MAINTAIN A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TO THE CREST OF APPALACHIANS
AND POSSIBLY INTO NC/SC/GA THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT.

...MIDWEST INTO UPPER MS VALLEY...
A LARGE RESERVOIR OF HIGH INSTABILITY RESIDES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD MUCAPE VALUES OF
3000-5000 J/KG WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK CAP
AROUND THE EDGES FROM NEB/SD INTO IA/MN/WI/IL. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THIS AREA...BEGINNING WITH THE
ONGOING BOW ECHO OVER NORTHWEST IA. THIS MCS WILL TRACK EASTWARD
AND WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO WI/IL LATER THIS MORNING.

BY MID AFTERNOON...THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORNING
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL IA. BACKED LOW
LEVEL WINDS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...COUPLED WITH STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S WILL YIELD EXTREME
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 5000 J/KG AND LITTLE CAP.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER SOUTHERN MN AND NORTHERN IA INDICATE THE
RISK OF INTENSE SUPERCELLS FORMING OVER THIS AREA CAPABLE OF VERY
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES.
THESE STORMS WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST WI AND NORTHERN
IL...WITH CONSOLIDATION INTO A LARGE MCS EXPECTED. BOW ECHO
FORMATION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN IL/IND WITH
THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
WINDS. STORMS MAY TRACK AS FAR
EAST AS CENTRAL OH OVERNIGHT.

...MID ATLANTIC REGION...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH ROTATING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION TODAY AND HELP TO INITIATE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM NYC SOUTHWARD INTO VA/NC. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE 70S ARE PRESENT THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF VA/NC WHERE STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ALL MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THIS AREA. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SUPERCELLS OVER THIS AREA CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

...WEST TX...
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT A
BAND OF HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM
EASTERN NM INTO WEST TX INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE. 40-50F T-TD
SPREADS COUPLED WITH 25-30 KNOT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

..HART/JEWELL.. 06/18/2009

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1305Z (9:05AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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#106 Postby Bunkertor » Thu Jun 18, 2009 8:11 am

I think this is the first 3 day mdt stretch of the year
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Re:

#107 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Jun 18, 2009 8:19 am

Bunkertor wrote:I think this is the first 3 day mdt stretch of the year


Yes it is. (Could we see a high risk today or tomorrow?)
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#108 Postby Dave » Thu Jun 18, 2009 8:21 am

KIND & TIDS Radar out of Indianapolis IN are down for maintenance (perfect day for it). I'm using KLVX out of Louisville KY to track this system coming in. Also KILN radar out of Wilmington OH is up as well.
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#109 Postby Dave » Thu Jun 18, 2009 8:24 am

Here's the latest thunderstorm warning to my west & southwest. It includes Bloomington IN and Indiana University.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
915 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
LAWRENCE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BEDFORD...
MONROE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BLOOMINGTON...
DAVIESS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...
GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...
NORTHEASTERN KNOX COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...
MARTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...
SOUTH CENTRAL OWEN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...

* UNTIL 1015 AM EDT

* AT 912 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM
NEAR SPENCER TO BLOOMFIELD TO NEAR VINCENNES...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
45 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
BLOOMINGTON AROUND 930 AM EDT...
BEDFORD AROUND 930 AM EDT...
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#110 Postby Dave » Thu Jun 18, 2009 8:27 am

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
825 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
GIBSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...
PIKE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...

* UNTIL 930 AM CDT/1030 AM EDT/.

* AT 822 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 16 MILES NORTH OF PETERSBURG TO 23 MILES NORTHWEST OF
PATOKA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 TO 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA INCLUDE...
PATOKA...
OWENSVILLE...
PRINCETON...
PETERSBURG...
FORT BRANCH...
OAKLAND CITY...
WINSLOW...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.
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Re:

#111 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Jun 18, 2009 8:28 am

ai9d wrote:KIND & TIDS Radar out of Indianapolis IN are down for maintenance (perfect day for it). I'm using KLVX out of Louisville KY to track this system coming in. Also KILN radar out of Wilmington OH is up as well.


Are there any radar holes after that issue?
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#112 Postby Dave » Thu Jun 18, 2009 8:28 am

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
833 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN DAVIESS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...
MARTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...

* UNTIL 1230 PM EDT

* AT 830 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOODING FROM A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE WARNED AREA. RADAR
INDICATES INDICATES RAIN AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND HOUR WERE
OCCURRING IN NORTHWEST DAVIESS COUNTY.


* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ODON...
ELNORA AND CRANE
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Re: Re:

#113 Postby Dave » Thu Jun 18, 2009 8:29 am

CrazyC83 wrote:
ai9d wrote:KIND & TIDS Radar out of Indianapolis IN are down for maintenance (perfect day for it). I'm using KLVX out of Louisville KY to track this system coming in. Also KILN radar out of Wilmington OH is up as well.


Are there any radar holes after that issue?


No all others are operational that I've found so far. Looks like Indy is the only one in or near this system that's down.
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#114 Postby Dave » Thu Jun 18, 2009 8:34 am

This round is going to stay west & southwest of my location. Louisville KY to Evansville IN looks to be the area the worst cells will pass between.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
932 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
DUBOIS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...
ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...

* UNTIL 1010 AM EDT

* AT 928 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 18 MILES NORTH OF ROLAND TO 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF THALES TO 17
MILES WEST OF PORTERSVILLE...OR FROM 15 MILES WEST OF BEDFORD TO
27 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BEDFORD TO 48 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BEDFORD.
THE STORMS WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
THALES AND ROLAND AROUND 940 AM EDT...
FRENCH LICK AND WEST BADEN SPRINGS AROUND 945 AM EDT...
ORLEANS AND LEIPSIC AROUND 950 AM EDT...
SYRIA AND BROMER AROUND 955 AM EDT...
MILLERSBURG AND VALEENE AROUND 1000 AM EDT...

THESE STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE FREQUENT DANGEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING.
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#115 Postby Dave » Thu Jun 18, 2009 8:38 am

White dot on right side is my location.

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#116 Postby Dave » Thu Jun 18, 2009 8:47 am

DATE: JUN 18 092500 EDT
TYPE: TSTM WND DMG
CITY: WORTHINGTON
COUNTY: GREENE
STATE: IN
SOURCE: LAW ENFORCEMENT
DETAILS: TWELVE RAILROAD CARS OVERTURNED ON WEST SIDE OF WORTHINGTON...AND NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREES DOWN THROUGHOUT GREENE COUNTY.
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#117 Postby Dave » Thu Jun 18, 2009 8:58 am

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
955 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...

* UNTIL 1030 AM EDT

* AT 952 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
BECKS MILL AND ORGAN SPRINGS AROUND 1005 AM EDT...
MARTINSBURG AROUND 1015 AM EDT...
NEW PEKIN AND SOUTH BOSTON AROUND 1020 AM EDT...
BLUE RIVER AROUND 1025 AM EDT...
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#118 Postby Dave » Thu Jun 18, 2009 9:07 am

DATE: JUN 18 091000 EDT
TYPE: TSTM WND DMG
CITY: 1 S LYONS
COUNTY: GREENE
STATE: IN
SOURCE: LAW ENFORCEMENT
DETAILS: NUMEROUS TREES DOWNED. WINDOWS BLOWN OUT OF A HOUSE
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#119 Postby Bunkertor » Thu Jun 18, 2009 9:13 am

Because the state borders are hard to find especially for weather surfers from overseas i did a little painting on that map :lol:
We can see very humid air in ai9d´s neighborhood, so perhaps his drying rack will stay indoors today.

Image
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#120 Postby Dave » Thu Jun 18, 2009 9:19 am

Image

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1201
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0915 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL KY SSEWD THROUGH MIDDLE/ERN TN INTO
PORTIONS OF GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 181415Z - 181545Z

BOWING MCS OVER SRN IND AS OF 14Z IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SEWD AND
EVENTUALLY MORE SWD INTO GA TODAY. AN ADDITIONAL...DOWNSTREAM WW
WILL BE REQUIRED. PARTS OF AREA WILL BE UPGRADED TO MODERATE RISK
AT 1630Z FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS.

MCS OVER SRN IND HAS ACCELERATED TO 50-55 KT OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR
OR SO OVER SRN IN WITH EXTRAPOLATED MOTION TAKING IT INTO NRN GA BY
19Z. 12Z BNA SOUNDING IS LIKELY REPRESENTATIVE OF AMBIENT INFLOW
AIR MASS...FEATURING A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES...CONTRIBUTING TO A POTENTIALLY STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
THIS INSTABILITY IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODERATELY STRONG NWLY WINDS
/40-50 KT/ IN THE MIDLEVELS SHOULD EFFECTIVELY MAINTAIN THE BOWING
STRUCTURE AS IT PROGRESSES SEWD TODAY.

..MEAD.. 06/18/2009


ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN...
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