Outbreak for,TX/OK/ARK/LA on 3/19-20

[jasons2k]

The circulation is weakening on both supercells near SAT. Looks like they got lucky this time.

[cycloneye]

The circulation is weakening on both supercells near SAT. Looks like they got lucky this time.

That is right. However,Austin has to be on full alert for those cells to their SW.

[cycloneye]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
913 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

OKC001-021-200230-
/O.CON.KTSA.TO.W.0006.000000T0000Z-120320T0230Z/
CHEROKEE OK-ADAIR OK-
913 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

...TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT FOR WESTERN
ADAIR AND EASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES...

AT 911 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO LOCATED NEAR CHEROKEE
LANDING STATE PARK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...TAHLEQUAH
AND ELDON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM...TAKE COVER NOW! IF NO
UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS AVAILABLE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR. MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES SHOULD BE ABANDONED FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS!

&&

LAT...LON 3581 9502 3601 9494 3591 9470 3571 9484
TIME...MOT...LOC 0213Z 212DEG 36KT 3584 9489

$$

[windnrain]

The circulation is weakening on both supercells near SAT. Looks like they got lucky this time.

That is right. However,Austin has to be on full alert for those cells to their SW.

You think those are heading here into Austin?

[Ntxw]

You think those are heading here into Austin?

With loss of daytime heating, the storms are becoming linear in central Texas as well. This does not mean storms ahead of the main line can't spawn tornadoes, but I think the threat of that is diminishing overnight and become a flooding threat even in your area. The severe weather threat will probably shift closer to SE Texas come daybreak.

[Texas Snowman]

Proceed with caution on this info after the bogus tornado pic that was going around earlier.

But @TxStormChasers is reporting "...overturned mobile homes and power lines down, homes destroyed in the Devin/Natalla/LaCoste area."

[cycloneye]

TORNADO WARNING
ARC033-143-200330-
/O.NEW.KTSA.TO.W.0007.120320T0257Z-120320T0330Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
957 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 1030 PM CDT

* AT 954 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 3 MILES WEST OF CEDARVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 40 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...NATURAL
DAM...LEE CREEK...MOUNTAINBURG...DEVILS DEN STATE PARK...CHESTER...
LAKE FORT SMITH...BLACKBURN...WINSLOW AND BRENTWOOD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM...TAKE COVER NOW! IF NO
UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS AVAILABLE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR. MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES SHOULD BE ABANDONED FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS!

&&

LAT...LON 3567 9399 3566 9402 3566 9407 3564 9407
3552 9445 3576 9449 3590 9407
TIME...MOT...LOC 0257Z 241DEG 33KT 3560 9439

$$

[Texas Snowman]

Jim Cantore reporting that more than 50 homes were damaged or destroyed in Medina County although no deaths or critical injuries have been reported. Also says law enforcement has shut down I-35 from mile marker 131 to 147 and assistance is being called in from other counties.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
957 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 1030 PM CDT

* AT 954 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 3 MILES WEST OF CEDARVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 40 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...NATURAL
DAM...LEE CREEK...MOUNTAINBURG...DEVILS DEN STATE PARK...CHESTER...
LAKE FORT SMITH...BLACKBURN...WINSLOW AND BRENTWOOD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM...TAKE COVER NOW! IF NO
UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS AVAILABLE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR. MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES SHOULD BE ABANDONED FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS!

&&

LAT...LON 3567 9399 3566 9402 3566 9407 3564 9407
3552 9445 3576 9449 3590 9407
TIME...MOT...LOC 0257Z 241DEG 33KT 3560 9439

$$

[Dave]

(11:09 PM) EWX: 2 Ese Lacoste [Bexar Co, TX] emergency mngr reports TORNADO at 08:30 PM CDT -- possible tornado damage of 6 homes on ted williams and obrien road...and ladd road. two non-life threatening injuries were reported.

[Dave]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0300
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1017 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL AR THROUGH SCNTRL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 200317Z - 200415Z

WW MAY BE NEEDED SOON FOR PARTS OF NCNTRL AR INTO SCNTRL MO AS
STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING EWD. DAMAGING WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT...BUT A COUPLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NERN MO SWWD THROUGH SWRN MO AND
EXTREME NERN AR THEN SSEWD THROUGH SERN OK. STRONGEST STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING ALONG PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY OVER NWRN AR. THE LINE IS
MOVING EAST AT 25-30 KT. THE DOWNSTREAM WARM SECTOR ONLY MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE WITH 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE...AND EVENING RAOB DATA FROM
LITTLE ROCK SHOWED A CAPPING INVERSION BASED AROUND 750 MB THAT HAS
LIKELY ADVECTED NWD INTO SRN MO BASED ON MID-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES.
WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND PRESENCE OF THE
INVERSION...STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
ZONE OF FORCING ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH A
DOMINANT LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE. HOWEVER...LARGE HODOGRAPHS ALONG
THE LLJ AXIS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED ORGANIZED STORMS
INCLUDING OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED SUPERCELL AND BOWING SEGMENTS.

..DIAL.. 03/20/2012

[Dave]

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 90
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1035 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

MOC009-043-059-065-067-077-091-105-125-153-161-169-203-209-213-
215-225-229-201000-
/O.NEW.KSGF.SV.A.0090.120320T0335Z-120320T1000Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
90 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN MISSOURI THIS WATCH INCLUDES 18 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL MISSOURI

MARIES PHELPS PULASKI

IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI

DENT HOWELL SHANNON
TEXAS

IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI

BARRY CHRISTIAN DALLAS
DOUGLAS GREENE LACLEDE
OZARK STONE TANEY
WEBSTER WRIGHT

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...AVA...BRANSON...BUFFALO...CABOOL...
CASSVILLE...EMINENCE...FORSYTH...FORT LEONARD WOOD...
GAINESVILLE...GALENA...HOUSTON...KIMBERLING CITY...LEBANON...
MANSFIELD...MARSHFIELD...MONETT...MOUNTAIN GROVE...NIXA...OZARK...
REPUBLIC...ROGERSVILLE...ROLLA...SALEM...SPRINGFIELD...
THEODOSIA...VIENNA...WAYNESVILLE...WEST PLAINS...
WILLOW SPRINGS AND WINONA.

$$

[CrazyC83]

I think the big story will be flooding.

[Dave]

Agreed on flooding, see a lot of flash flood reports.

[CrazyC83]

With the rainfall amounts, if a major city gets as much as the HPC has suggested, it could be similar to Nashville in May 2010.

[Dave]

These are doppler estimates (KSGF - Springfield MO NWS) only but it's showing up to 5.5" in many locations in E KS, SW MO, NE OK, & NW AR so far and its still raining in many of those locations. For me I'm done for the night, back on tomorrow when I can.

[Tireman4]

And so it starts for us...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
817 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 900 AM CDT

* AT 816 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MANVEL...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE TORNADO WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
PEARLAND AND IOWA COLONY.

[Extratropical94]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1111 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

LAC031-201630-
/O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-120320T1630Z/
DE SOTO LA-
1111 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 AM CDT FOR DE SOTO
PARISH...

AT 1107 AM CDT...USING DOPPLER RADAR...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO DETECT A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS
LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SOUTH...SOUTHWEST OF MANSFIELD...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE
INDICATED PARISH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

&&

LAT...LON 3191 9368 3191 9375 3192 9380 3195 9384
3209 9380 3207 9356
TIME...MOT...LOC 1612Z 205DEG 33KT 3199 9375

$$

[cycloneye]

TORNADO WARNING
LAC069-127-201830-
/O.NEW.KSHV.TO.W.0011.120320T1754Z-120320T1830Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1254 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN WINN PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
CENTRAL NATCHITOCHES PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF NATCHITOCHES...

* UNTIL 130 PM CDT

* AT 1250 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
NATCHITOCHES...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
CAMPTI...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE
STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...
MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

&&

LAT...LON 3215 9296 3201 9270 3169 9301 3179 9320
TIME...MOT...LOC 1754Z 219DEG 32KT 3179 9306

$$

24

[Extratropical94]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
113 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

LAC069-127-201830-
/O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0011.000000T0000Z-120320T1830Z/
NATCHITOCHES LA-WINN LA-
113 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 PM CDT FOR WINN AND
NATCHITOCHES PARISHES...

AT 109 PM CDT...USING DOPPLER RADAR...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO DETECT A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS
LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GOLDONNA...OR 16 MILES NORTHEAST OF
NATCHITOCHES...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO CALVIN

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

&&

LAT...LON 3215 9296 3201 9270 3183 9290 3194 9310
TIME...MOT...LOC 1813Z 219DEG 32KT 3198 9292

$$