Texas Fall-2014

[gpsnowman]

Steve McCauley teasing about what lies after next weekends cold front:

"Our cold front is on schedule to arrive by Thursday bringing showers and storms through Friday to at least half of north Texas along with brisk north winds with temperature struggling to get out of the 70s on Friday and Saturday!

And if that isn't cool enough for you, just wait until the following week."

Ntwx mentioned a few posts ago another front would follow the one next week according to the Euro. I am drooling. Wonder what surprises the second front has in store for us? Now on to the NFL.

[iorange55]

Ah, yes! Fall is finally here. This summer went by fast. I can't wait for the cool down next weekend, just in time for a little camping adventure.

This winter should be fun.

[Ntxw]

Steve McCauley teasing about what lies after next weekends cold front:

"Our cold front is on schedule to arrive by Thursday bringing showers and storms through Friday to at least half of north Texas along with brisk north winds with temperature struggling to get out of the 70s on Friday and Saturday!

And if that isn't cool enough for you, just wait until the following week."

Ntwx mentioned a few posts ago another front would follow the one next week according to the Euro. I am drooling. Wonder what surprises the second front has in store for us? Now on to the NFL.

That is correct. As nice and strong a front this weekend is, there are significant hints there will be another even stronger one coming out of the Arctic with anomalous -EPO ridge. I can't post the hi res Ecmwf but there is a barreling anomalous cold air mass with near 1040hp dome coming down vs this weekend's 1030+

And then there is re-curving Fengshen in the WPAC

[Tireman4]

Steve McCauley teasing about what lies after next weekends cold front:

"Our cold front is on schedule to arrive by Thursday bringing showers and storms through Friday to at least half of north Texas along with brisk north winds with temperature struggling to get out of the 70s on Friday and Saturday!

And if that isn't cool enough for you, just wait until the following week."

Ntwx mentioned a few posts ago another front would follow the one next week according to the Euro. I am drooling. Wonder what surprises the second front has in store for us? Now on to the NFL.

That is correct. As nice and strong a front this weekend is, there are significant hints there will be another even stronger one coming out of the Arctic with anomalous -EPO ridge. I can't post the hi res Ecmwf but there is a barreling anomalous cold air mass with near 1040hp dome coming down vs this weekend's 1030+

And then there is re-curving Fengshen in the WPAC

Now can I quote Sraintx and say, "Stepping down"?

[Ntxw]

Now can I quote Sraintx and say, "Stepping down"?

Too early, the front(s) could miss...wide right of Houston for the winning kick.

[Ntxw]

Here's a cool animation of the GFS. Follow the big red blob that sinks into the continent and the red blob behind it crossing over from Siberia (second air mass which the GFS isn't latching on yet compared to the Euro). This would be so much fun in the heart of winter.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... namer.html

[somethingfunny]

We still haven't hit 80 degrees today and it's nearly noon. . It feels great outside.

[Tireman4]

Now can I quote Sraintx and say, "Stepping down"?

Too early, the front(s) could miss...wide right of Houston for the winning kick. [/quote


Oh my sir. You are a hoot. It is 88 humid disgusting degrees here

[gboudx]

It's been nice this summer to see how lush and green vegetation has stayed. Polar opposite from last 2 summers where everything was brown, crunchy and a spark away from a wildfire hazard.

[Portastorm]

Yeah, I can't complain either. The PWC has picked up close to an inch of rain in the last week. And here we are in the "heat" of the afternoon and it's in the mid 80s. Looking forward to next week's frontal passage with dreams of more rain and cooler/drier air to follow!

[Janie2006]

I suppose the front could always pull a Romo and toss the ball back to the opposing upper level ridge, cos, you know, the ridge hasn't had enough opportunities to score points on its own.

[Tireman4]

Ha ha Janie. Laugh laugh..lol.

[dhweather]

It's been nice this summer to see how lush and green vegetation has stayed. Polar opposite from last 2 summers where everything was brown, crunchy and a spark away from a wildfire hazard.

You haven't been under the nuclear strength inversion in the far southern part off the county. It's brownish. I've watched three straight opportunities all do the same thing, go north, south, and east of me. I honestly do not understand why this happens 9 out of 10 times. My suspicion is that it has something to do with Lake Ray Hubbard.

[weatherdude1108]

Yeah, I can't complain either. The PWC has picked up close to an inch of rain in the last week. And here we are in the "heat" of the afternoon and it's in the mid 80s. Looking forward to next week's frontal passage with dreams of more rain and cooler/drier air to follow!

Oh yeah. I received about the same over the past week. I was out doing yard work at 4:15pm. 82 degrees. Very nice! Looking forward to the possibilities!

[Portastorm]

All of a sudden the much-ballyhooed cold front later this week looks a lot less impressive than what the medium-range models showed a few days ago. Wonder if the trend will continue.

That's what we get, I guess, for buying into the models a week out. There's reasons why strong cold fronts should be suspect in the models in mid September ... climatology!

[wxman57]

It's been a cool, wet summer at my house in SW Houston. Had 8" of rain in July and 9" in August. Measured an inch this past Sunday. Not a single 100F day in Houston this summer, and I don't think we'll see one before this week's cold front. Though I'd like to see a warm, dry fall and winter across southeast Texas, I'm not seeing much to indicate any such pattern will develop.

Here's a meteogram off last night's GFS run. Dewpoints down into the 50s with highs closer to 90 this coming weekend:

[Texas Snowman]

A sign of the apocalypse! Frame these words from Wxman57...

"Though I'd like to see a warm, dry fall and winter across southeast Texas, I'm not seeing much to indicate any such pattern will develop.

[gpsnowman]

All of a sudden the much-ballyhooed cold front later this week looks a lot less impressive than what the medium-range models showed a few days ago. Wonder if the trend will continue.

That's what we get, I guess, for buying into the models a week out. There's reasons why strong cold fronts should be suspect in the models in mid September ... climatology!

Are you referring to the Austin area? Because I just watched the NBC5 forecast(starring Rick Mitchell) and it seems rain chances have gone up a tad and temps have gone down a tad. Upper 50's Saturday and Sunday mornings, with evening 70's. If these temps pan out, windows up and A/C off!!!

[Portastorm]

All of a sudden the much-ballyhooed cold front later this week looks a lot less impressive than what the medium-range models showed a few days ago. Wonder if the trend will continue.

That's what we get, I guess, for buying into the models a week out. There's reasons why strong cold fronts should be suspect in the models in mid September ... climatology!

Are you referring to the Austin area? Because I just watched the NBC5 forecast(starring Rick Mitchell) and it seems rain chances have gone up a tad and temps have gone down a tad. Upper 50's Saturday and Sunday mornings, with evening 70's. If these temps pan out, windows up and A/C off!!!

Yes I am and I should have clarified that. Thanks for pointing it out. The latest Euro hangs up the frontal boundary in south central Texas this weekend. Creates the potential for good rains but projected highs last week around 80 (for Austin) may not happen. Mid 80s for highs ... yes, with lows in the upper 60s. Hey, I'm not griping ... but was just pointing out that some of the model runs from late last week showed an amazingly strong front.

[Janie2006]

I refuse to acknowledge a busted forecast until it actually busts.