Texas Spring 2016

[Brent]

[gpsnowman]

Well fart, I will be in New Mexico next week. Gonna miss all the beautiful rain and storms. Last I checked Santa Fe had a slight chance of snow on Tuesday so we will see. Wednesday is Albuquerque day with a hot air ballon ride scheduled. Hope the weather cooperates. Enjoy the storms.

[Brent]

Heaviest rain is Tuesday into Wednesday, with maybe a second smaller impulse Thursday, and then possibly lingering isolated showers into Saturday before it clears out

The GFS verbatim has over 5 inches of rain at DFW, most of it again falls Tuesday and Wednesday.

No sign of temps above the mid 70s throughout the run... actually near the end of the run the 540 line crosses DFW with a low in the upper 30s.

[TheProfessor]

Next week will be a busy week for the Southern U.S river forecasters.

[Ntxw]

Will be interesting to see some of the hi res models. Globals are globals but they often do not perform well with mesoscale features that causes training. If there is a boundary, and where it is can really be a rain bomb.

[vbhoutex]

At least one of our local OCMs is saying we will have flooding rains here in SE TX. Current modeling shows much of the heavier rains to the NE of the Houston metro. However, if the jet sets up as progged at this point-right on top of us-imo all bets are off. I'm going to enjoy the weekend and be watching much more closely come Monday.

[weatherdude1108]

Can't tell how to interpret this map as far as boundaries around south and central Texas (?) . The frame after this congeals it into a solid line going into Houston. MCS?

[Ntxw]

Can't tell how to interpret this map as far as boundaries around south and central Texas (?) . The frame after this congeals it into a solid line going into Houston. MCS?

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_18.png

What the GFS does is keeps the system a little further west while slowing it down. Essentially that shifts the heaviest qpf from the MS river basin in Arkansas over closer to the I-35 corridor of Texas and Oklahoma. Literally though boundaries matter, and frankly the system is cutoff so it can just about spin anywhere it wants (within vicinity) since it is blocked.

[Brent]

It's been consistent I'll give it that with the streaks of heavier rain over I-35 and then right over the metro and NE

[Ntxw]

Wonder if this will help Lake Texoma breach the spillway again this year? That would be crazy to have that happen in back to back years given the sparse occasion.

[Portastorm]

Overnight Euro op run shows 5-6" of rain for the Austin area over the next 10 days. 12z GFS looks about 1-2" but earlier GFS runs showed higher amounts. We shall see.

[Brent]

The 0z Euro has over 5 inches of rain at DFW on Tuesday alone... with a storm total at almost 7 inches...

The 0z GFS is less aggressive but still quite impressive with about 3 inches on Tuesday and a storm total around 4 1/2 inches.

[Ntxw]

Maybe we will see wxman57 tubing down the bayou in his yellow speedo with all that rain. That is a lot of rain...

[EnnisTx]

Maybe we will see wxman57 tubing down the bayou in his yellow speedo with all that rain. That is a lot of rain...

[Portastorm]

I could have done WITHOUT that image in my head.

Seeing remarkable agreement among short- and medium-range models about the next seven days in Texas. The I-35 corridor looks to see a good 2-4" swath of rain while east of there amounts will be higher. Should be a great week for us to fill up the watersheds and aquifers. Severe weather also a decent bet. The usual March fare of hail and high winds seem likeliest. I only wish we would repeat this next weather week during SXSW.

[Garnetcat5]

Any thoughts on severe weather for Houston ties into wed? Have a conference downtown so I suppose it HAD TO BE severe wx time smh

[Brent]

Maybe we will see wxman57 tubing down the bayou in his yellow speedo with all that rain. That is a lot of rain...

Well done sir...

[TheProfessor]

Guys I know flooding has been the main concern this week but I'm really worried about the I-35 and a bit east from Central Oklahoma to South Texas for Tuesday Afternoon. Nam is within 60 hours and is usually really good with severe weather. There could be some intense tornadoes that day. SPC hasn't jumped on board yet but if the Nam is close to verifying then make sure you have plans to get to safety in a hurry if anything happens.

[TheProfessor]

12z NAM at 63 hours (Around 9PM your time Tuesday) has PDS Tornado as a possible hazard for DFW Metro. It's still far out so things can still change. I will post pictures in a bit.

[TexasF6]

I saw that 12z NAM. Not good. I bet we see an upgrade past slight at some point since we are closer to the event. LLJ and helicity will make it a very interesting evening indeed...