Texas Fall 2018

[JDawg512]

Finally getting some much needed rain here at the cave... While some areas around have seen a few inches, the heart of south Austin has yet again missed out on the heaviest. I don't mind that heavier rains have fallen to the west as that is the area most in need. Let's see if I can get a half to over an inch of rain today. That is the modest challenge I give to the clouds over the Rain Cave...

[weatherdude1108]

Trying to erase this donut hole over my area.

[Haris]

The big BIG cracks in my ground are GONE! Now I have huge ponds in my grass . I feel selfish LOL since some weren’t as lucky .

Anyhow more rain from a surface boundary late week !

Additional 2-4” for Austin . My total could reach a HAlF FOOT!

Edit : new euro !!! This pattern never ends

[weatherdude1108]

The big BIG cracks in my ground are GONE! Now I have huge ponds in my grass . I feel selfish LOL since some weren’t as lucky .

Anyhow more rain from a surface boundary late week !

Additional 2-4” for Austin . My total could reach a HAlF FOOT!

Edit : new euro !!! This pattern never ends

WOOHOO! Just say no to crack!!

I feel like I'm usually the one that gets the feast on this forum for the Austin area crew. It's your turn now I guess.lol

Though my luck (and anyone else who has missed out so far with this) can change on a dime with these tropical downpours.

I'm hopeful chances are better the longer it is in the forecast. Looking more confident!

I'll post later if anything substantial comes my way. Only a matter of time.

[weatherdude1108]

Just got home and noticed a half inch in gauge. Hear thunder. Getting another round when I am home! Moderate rain. Nice!

[Haris]

Another tropical downpour! 1/2" ! 2 day total now clipping 4"

[South Texas Storms]

This rain event has already been great across much of south central TX, and it looks like it's just getting started! Latest models generally agree that we will continue to have decent rain chances over at least the next 7 days as a weakness remains over the state.

[Ptarmigan]

I’m a fan of the 0z GFS

I have seen forecasts that develop something in the Bay Of Campeche. Must be that one.

[Haris]

lol again

[weatherdude1108]

Rains most where it is needed most. This is the perfect scenario!

I finally have 0.75" total in the gauge, less than most, but at least an inch or two would be good, more would be icing.

[Ntxw]

With Gordon's track northeast of most of us and Florence likely trending west in the open Atlantic, we (here in Texas) will probably gradually get under the influence of subsidence. So if it were my guess, I'd say qpf forecast will likely trend downwards in the coming days. It will still feel tropical the next few days and lucky few will still get localized downpours. But with the Atlantic heating up the pattern will likely shift towards the southeastern US for rains.

[weatherdude1108]

Good discussion by the EWX this morning.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 050857
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
357 AM CDT Wed Sep 5 2018

.SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...
This morning is a lot quieter weather wise compared to 24 hours ago.
While there are a few isolated showers across South Central Texas the
only area of organized moderate to heavy rainfall is along the Rio
Grande River from El Indio and Eagle Pass in Maverick County up to
Del Rio. High resolution models suggest that this area will see these
scattered moderate to heavy showers and storms through much of the
pre-dawn and morning hours.

With precipitable water values remaining around 2.25 inches and both
the ECMWF and GFS showing a weak disturbance moving across South
Texas this afternoon and evening coverage of scattered showers and
storms should once again spread across the area by this afternoon.
The main focus for heavier precipitation today should be across the
western part of the area (Rio Grande Plains/Edwards Plateau) and
across the Coastal Plains. With numerous remnant boundaries in place
and no large scale feature to dictate storm motions it will be
difficult to pinpoint exactly where the heaviest rain will fall.
Areas at the greatest risk from any patchy heavy rainfall are the
parts of Bexar, Uvalde, and Maverick Counties that have seen 4 to 10
inches of rainfall since Sunday evening. Storms that are slow moving
and train over the same area will produce the greatest rainfall
amounts for Wednesday. Highs will once again be held at bay due to
the cloud cover and rainfall across South Central Texas, topping at
near or just below seasonal normals.

Up until Thursday much of the heavy precipitation has been driven by
mesoscale features like remnant outflow boundaries interacting with
the moist atmosphere. By Thursday two synoptic scale features will
begin to add ingredients to Central Texas Weather. The first will be
what is left of Tropical Storm Gordon moving across Arkansas. While
the storm will have little direct effect on weather across the area
it will maintain the deep moisture pool across South Central Texas.
At the same time a trough will begin to move into the High Plains and
both the ECMWF and GFS show a weak front moving down into North
Texas and possibly the Hill Country late in the day on Thursday. This
front will serve as a focus for showers and thunderstorms that could
continue to produce pockets of heavy rainfall. The best chances for
heavier rainfall Thursday will be closer to the front, across the
Edwards Plateau and Hill Country.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...
The weather for the latter part of the week, the weekend, and the
first part of next week will all depend on the location of this
front. If it sags south, more into Central Texas, like the 00z models
indicate, it could be a very wet few days with increased concern for
locally heavy rainfall. If the front remains to the north, or pushes
to the coast, while rainfall will continue the threat for locally
heavy rainfall will be reduced. Precipitable Water values will remain
elevated between 1.75 and 2.25 inches into early next week so whether
it is remnant outflow boundaries like we have seen or the larger
synoptic front, either source of lift could spark off showers and
storms each day through Tuesday. Add to that a weak disturbance
moving across the state at the base of the larger trough early next
week. The large scale trough will move across the Central Plains
through Sunday, but the trough axis will remain across Texas along
with the weak front through at least Tuesday. By Wednesday models
begin to wash out the front and the upper level ridge begins to build
back into Texas.

With the front, the trough, and abundant moisture, more areas of
localized heavy rainfall and flooding will be possible into early
next week. Models still disagree on the location and evolution of the
front through Wednesday, but this front will play a key role in
where the heaviest rain falls through the forecast period. Very
quickly we have gone from a hot and rather dry weather pattern, to a
`cooler` and more wet pattern. With the rainy weather lasting into
next week and the average date of the last 100 degree day already
past at Austin (average last: 8-21, latest 100 degree day: 10-2) and
San Antonio (average last: 8-19, latest 100 degree day: 9-28) maybe
we have seen the last of the 100s for 2018? At the very least we can
enjoy the cooler afternoons and the beneficial rain that many parts
of not just Central Texas but much of the state are getting. The
drought conditions leading up to the rains of the last few days and
the forecast rains have the benefit of, for the time being, reducing
the impacts of the heavy rainfall as creeks, streams, and rivers were
running low requiring more water to reach flood stage.

[Yukon Cornelius]

With Gordon's track northeast of most of us and Florence likely trending west in the open Atlantic, we (here in Texas) will probably gradually get under the influence of subsidence. So if it were my guess, I'd say qpf forecast will likely trend downwards in the coming days. It will still feel tropical the next few days and lucky few will still get localized downpours. But with the Atlantic heating up the pattern will likely shift towards the southeastern US for rains.

What will these tracks do for us temperature wise?

[Ntxw]

With Gordon's track northeast of most of us and Florence likely trending west in the open Atlantic, we (here in Texas) will probably gradually get under the influence of subsidence. So if it were my guess, I'd say qpf forecast will likely trend downwards in the coming days. It will still feel tropical the next few days and lucky few will still get localized downpours. But with the Atlantic heating up the pattern will likely shift towards the southeastern US for rains.

What will these tracks do for us temperature wise?

If Florence effects the East coast, the 500mb config would be east coast trof, Pac NW trof, mid section ridge. Warmer temperatures.

[Yukon Cornelius]

It really hasn’t stopped raining for 3 days with good chances the rest of the week. Perfect timing for calving season.

[starsfan65]

With Gordon's track northeast of most of us and Florence likely trending west in the open Atlantic, we (here in Texas) will probably gradually get under the influence of subsidence. So if it were my guess, I'd say qpf forecast will likely trend downwards in the coming days. It will still feel tropical the next few days and lucky few will still get localized downpours. But with the Atlantic heating up the pattern will likely shift towards the southeastern US for rains.

What will these tracks do for us temperature wise?

If Florence effects the East coast, the 500mb config would be east coast trof, Pac NW trof, mid section ridge. Warmer temperatures.

We need the rain badly!!

[weatherdude1108]

What will these tracks do for us temperature wise?

If Florence effects the East coast, the 500mb config would be east coast trof, Pac NW trof, mid section ridge. Warmer temperatures.

We need the rain badly!!

"Subsidence" is not a popular word here lately, given the last several months of excessive heat waves and dryness around here (give or take a couple small rain events in early July and August, and a hopefully longer rainy period now) and the resultant soil moisture and water deficits.

I know it is what it is. But give me my three inches, and I'll be satisfied if subsidence comes back.

[Ntxw]

If Florence effects the East coast, the 500mb config would be east coast trof, Pac NW trof, mid section ridge. Warmer temperatures.

We need the rain badly!!

"Subsidence" is not a popular word here lately, given the last several months of excessive heat waves and dryness around here (give or take a couple small rain events in early July and August, and a hopefully longer rainy period now) and the resultant soil moisture and water deficits.

I know it is what it is. But give me my three inches, and I'll be satisfied if subsidence comes back.

Climo is on our side . Cold fronts this time of year could also do the job in the rain department.

[Haris]

We still have fairly high rain chances this weekend including Friday ! Next week we could get into a drier period but we have 5 more days at least of rainy weather ! I’ll take it

[Cpv17]

We still have fairly high rain chances this weekend including Friday ! Next week we could get into a drier period but we have 5 more days at least of rainy weather ! I’ll take it

As of right now chances appear to be pretty good for rain here in SETX all the way through next week.