![Image](https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2022060512/006/prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_sc.png)
Texas Summer 2022
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- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Summer 2022
Is the Euro off its rocker or are we about to see some storms fire on the outflow off the western edge of the dying MCS? (Answer, it's off its rocker)
![Image](https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2022060512/006/prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_sc.png)
![Image](https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2022060512/006/prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_sc.png)
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Summer 2022
bubba hotep wrote:Is the Euro off its rocker or are we about to see some storms fire on the outflow off the western edge of the dying MCS? (Answer, it's off its rocker)
https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2022060512/006/prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_sc.png
Missed it by that much...
![Image](https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2022060512/012/qpf_acc.us_sc.png)
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
Re: Texas Summer 2022
There’s some decent support on the ensembles for something in the western Gulf in about 10ish days.
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- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Summer 2022
Cpv17 wrote:There’s some decent support on the ensembles for something in the western Gulf in about 10ish days.
Noticed that. I wonder what the driver is?
Also, the overall pattern looks like it would pin anything that forms down in the BOC and eventually Mexico. However, the smoothing of ensembles could miss tricky little shortwaves that could pull something north.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
Re: Texas Summer 2022
bubba hotep wrote:Cpv17 wrote:There’s some decent support on the ensembles for something in the western Gulf in about 10ish days.
Noticed that. I wonder what the driver is?
Also, the overall pattern looks like it would pin anything that forms down in the BOC and eventually Mexico. However, the smoothing of ensembles could miss tricky little shortwaves that could pull something north.
Possibly a CAG?
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Re: Texas Summer 2022
A persistent MCS held together long enough to spark a nice thunderstorm overhead a little while ago. Lots of CG lightning and crashing thunder. Dropped 0.65" here. ![Cool 8-)](./images/smilies/icon_cool.gif)
![Cool 8-)](./images/smilies/icon_cool.gif)
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- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Summer 2022
cstrunk wrote:A persistent MCS held together long enough to spark a nice thunderstorm overhead a little while ago. Lots of CG lightning and crashing thunder. Dropped 0.65" here.
Outflow from that made for an awesome afternoon/evening here in eastern DFW.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022
Rained on and off through early afternoon then only recovered to 80 here another MCS tonight and rain chances with highs in the 80s all next week... Quite a start to June up here
Wish we could share with down south
Wish we could share with down south
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#neversummer
Re: Texas Summer 2022
I'm glad I was able to get some rain yesterday, because the 7-day forecast features temperatures from 93F-100F and only a 20% of rain Friday night into Saturday. ![Sun :sun:](./images/smilies/bdayy.gif)
![Sun :sun:](./images/smilies/bdayy.gif)
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- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Summer 2022
I’m surprised that no one mentioned the Mesocyclone in DFW on Friday when there was BIG storms in the metroplex. I was in Great Wolf Lodge in Grapevine, TX when I saw it, it looked scary! But thankfully collapsed before it had a chance to produce a tornado. I’m currently in Lewisville, TX (Suburb of Dallas) at an Airbnb. I will be back home on tomorrow after visiting Legoland today.
Edit: I messed up on what day it was on.
Edit: I messed up on what day it was on.
Last edited by Iceresistance on Mon Jun 06, 2022 10:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021![cold :cold:](./images/smilies/cold.gif)
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
![cold :cold:](./images/smilies/cold.gif)
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- cheezyWXguy
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Re: Texas Summer 2022
Iceresistance wrote:I’m surprised that no one mentioned the Mesocyclone in DFW on Saturday when there was BIG storms in the metroplex. I was in Great Wolf Lodge in Grapevine, TX when I saw it, it looked scary! But thankfully collapsed before it had a chance to produce a tornado. I’m currently in Lewisville, TX (Suburb of Dallas) at an Airbnb. I will be back home on tomorrow after visiting Legoland today.
At first I thought you were talking about the MCV on Friday. There was a meso in dfw on Saturday? I had no idea…
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- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Summer 2022
cheezyWXguy wrote:Iceresistance wrote:I’m surprised that no one mentioned the Mesocyclone in DFW on Saturday when there was BIG storms in the metroplex. I was in Great Wolf Lodge in Grapevine, TX when I saw it, it looked scary! But thankfully collapsed before it had a chance to produce a tornado. I’m currently in Lewisville, TX (Suburb of Dallas) at an Airbnb. I will be back home on tomorrow after visiting Legoland today.
At first I thought you were talking about the MCV on Friday. There was a meso in dfw on Saturday? I had no idea…
It was on Friday! I messed up the days.
![Razz :P](./images/smilies/icon_razz.gif)
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021![cold :cold:](./images/smilies/cold.gif)
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
![cold :cold:](./images/smilies/cold.gif)
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Starting to see the pattern that sets up the hot years show up. The ridges are flexing in bouts but in between you see weak extensions/meandering elevated heights around Texas feeding back from the drought. So it's very hot ridge, ridge weakens hot, hot, ridge flexes again very hot, rinse repeat type cycle. While the weakness, is above us.
Summer Solstice heatwave hints are out there. 597dm+ type ridge popping up on various runs. That's 2021 Pacific NW type heat. Maybe 110-115 somewhere in central/big country Texas?
Summer Solstice heatwave hints are out there. 597dm+ type ridge popping up on various runs. That's 2021 Pacific NW type heat. Maybe 110-115 somewhere in central/big country Texas?
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- Edwards Limestone
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Re: Texas Summer 2022
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- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Summer 2022
So close yet so far away lol
![Image](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FUmNu2-WQAABtIK?format=jpg&name=medium)
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Summer 2022
Edwards Limestone wrote:https://twitter.com/NWSSanAntonio/status/1533846022434312198?cxt=HHwWjMC-tZW1qMkqAAAA
It looks bad for Central and SW Texas but there has been a lot of improvement across the Panhandle recently. Most of North, NE, East Texas, and Oklahoma are doing good. Unfortunately, for those that are in the red, there isn't much of a path out as regular climo starts cutting daily rainfall back pretty rapidly starting in mid-June. Then you have to wait until Fall.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
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Re: Texas Summer 2022
bubba hotep wrote:Edwards Limestone wrote:https://twitter.com/NWSSanAntonio/status/1533846022434312198?cxt=HHwWjMC-tZW1qMkqAAAA
It looks bad for Central and SW Texas but there has been a lot of improvement across the Panhandle recently. Most of North, NE, East Texas, and Oklahoma are doing good. Unfortunately, for those that are in the red, there isn't much of a path out as regular climo starts cutting daily rainfall back pretty rapidly starting in mid-June. Then you have to wait until Fall.
I'm already depressed.
![Sun :sun:](./images/smilies/bdayy.gif)
![#Onfire :onfire:](./images/smilies/new_ukliam2.gif)
![Crying or Very sad :cry:](./images/smilies/icon_cry.gif)
I know better than to look at Accuweather, but for this area on June 15th, it shows a high of 99 (next day from now below 100).
On June 17th, it shows a high of 102, but says "Hot with a t-shower in spots" (HOPE?)
I'm looking for ANYTHING for some kind of ray of hope.lol
![wall :wall:](./images/smilies/a5.gif)
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The preceding post is NOT an official forecast, and should not be used as such. It is only the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Texas Summer 2022
Over/under for excessive heat warnings later this week? I believe heat index 105F+ of 2 hours or more is DFW's criteria for one.
![Image](https://i.imgur.com/MZhxNGY.png)
![Image](https://i.imgur.com/MZhxNGY.png)
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Summer 2022
18z GFS with a couple of tropical disturbances into S. Texas that drop rain on the only places in S. Texas that aren't in drought conditions lol
![Image](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022060618/gfs_apcpn_scus_64.png)
![Image](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022060618/gfs_apcpn_scus_64.png)
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
- South Texas Storms
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Re: Texas Summer 2022
Edwards Limestone wrote:https://twitter.com/NWSSanAntonio/status/1533846022434312198?cxt=HHwWjMC-tZW1qMkqAAAA
So depressing. And it's probably going to get a lot worse before it gets any better unfortunately.
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