Texas Summer 2022

[bubba hotep]

Is the Euro off its rocker or are we about to see some storms fire on the outflow off the western edge of the dying MCS? (Answer, it's off its rocker)

[bubba hotep]

Is the Euro off its rocker or are we about to see some storms fire on the outflow off the western edge of the dying MCS? (Answer, it's off its rocker)

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2022060512/006/prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_sc.png

Missed it by that much...

[Cpv17]

There’s some decent support on the ensembles for something in the western Gulf in about 10ish days.

[bubba hotep]

There’s some decent support on the ensembles for something in the western Gulf in about 10ish days.

Noticed that. I wonder what the driver is?

Also, the overall pattern looks like it would pin anything that forms down in the BOC and eventually Mexico. However, the smoothing of ensembles could miss tricky little shortwaves that could pull something north.

[Cpv17]

There’s some decent support on the ensembles for something in the western Gulf in about 10ish days.

Noticed that. I wonder what the driver is?

Also, the overall pattern looks like it would pin anything that forms down in the BOC and eventually Mexico. However, the smoothing of ensembles could miss tricky little shortwaves that could pull something north.

Possibly a CAG?

[cstrunk]

A persistent MCS held together long enough to spark a nice thunderstorm overhead a little while ago. Lots of CG lightning and crashing thunder. Dropped 0.65" here.

[bubba hotep]

A persistent MCS held together long enough to spark a nice thunderstorm overhead a little while ago. Lots of CG lightning and crashing thunder. Dropped 0.65" here.

Outflow from that made for an awesome afternoon/evening here in eastern DFW.

[Brent]

Rained on and off through early afternoon then only recovered to 80 here another MCS tonight and rain chances with highs in the 80s all next week... Quite a start to June up here

Wish we could share with down south

[cstrunk]

I'm glad I was able to get some rain yesterday, because the 7-day forecast features temperatures from 93F-100F and only a 20% of rain Friday night into Saturday.

[Iceresistance]

I’m surprised that no one mentioned the Mesocyclone in DFW on Friday when there was BIG storms in the metroplex. I was in Great Wolf Lodge in Grapevine, TX when I saw it, it looked scary! But thankfully collapsed before it had a chance to produce a tornado. I’m currently in Lewisville, TX (Suburb of Dallas) at an Airbnb. I will be back home on tomorrow after visiting Legoland today.

Edit: I messed up on what day it was on.

[cheezyWXguy]

I’m surprised that no one mentioned the Mesocyclone in DFW on Saturday when there was BIG storms in the metroplex. I was in Great Wolf Lodge in Grapevine, TX when I saw it, it looked scary! But thankfully collapsed before it had a chance to produce a tornado. I’m currently in Lewisville, TX (Suburb of Dallas) at an Airbnb. I will be back home on tomorrow after visiting Legoland today.

At first I thought you were talking about the MCV on Friday. There was a meso in dfw on Saturday? I had no idea…

[Iceresistance]

I’m surprised that no one mentioned the Mesocyclone in DFW on Saturday when there was BIG storms in the metroplex. I was in Great Wolf Lodge in Grapevine, TX when I saw it, it looked scary! But thankfully collapsed before it had a chance to produce a tornado. I’m currently in Lewisville, TX (Suburb of Dallas) at an Airbnb. I will be back home on tomorrow after visiting Legoland today.

At first I thought you were talking about the MCV on Friday. There was a meso in dfw on Saturday? I had no idea…

It was on Friday! I messed up the days.

[Ntxw]

Starting to see the pattern that sets up the hot years show up. The ridges are flexing in bouts but in between you see weak extensions/meandering elevated heights around Texas feeding back from the drought. So it's very hot ridge, ridge weakens hot, hot, ridge flexes again very hot, rinse repeat type cycle. While the weakness, is above us.

Summer Solstice heatwave hints are out there. 597dm+ type ridge popping up on various runs. That's 2021 Pacific NW type heat. Maybe 110-115 somewhere in central/big country Texas?

[Edwards Limestone]

 https://twitter.com/NWSSanAntonio/status/1533846022434312198

[bubba hotep]

So close yet so far away lol

[bubba hotep]

https://twitter.com/NWSSanAntonio/status/1533846022434312198?cxt=HHwWjMC-tZW1qMkqAAAA

It looks bad for Central and SW Texas but there has been a lot of improvement across the Panhandle recently. Most of North, NE, East Texas, and Oklahoma are doing good. Unfortunately, for those that are in the red, there isn't much of a path out as regular climo starts cutting daily rainfall back pretty rapidly starting in mid-June. Then you have to wait until Fall.

[weatherdude1108]

https://twitter.com/NWSSanAntonio/status/1533846022434312198?cxt=HHwWjMC-tZW1qMkqAAAA

It looks bad for Central and SW Texas but there has been a lot of improvement across the Panhandle recently. Most of North, NE, East Texas, and Oklahoma are doing good. Unfortunately, for those that are in the red, there isn't much of a path out as regular climo starts cutting daily rainfall back pretty rapidly starting in mid-June. Then you have to wait until Fall.

I'm already depressed.

I know better than to look at Accuweather, but for this area on June 15th, it shows a high of 99 (next day from now below 100).

On June 17th, it shows a high of 102, but says "Hot with a t-shower in spots" (HOPE?)

I'm looking for ANYTHING for some kind of ray of hope.lol

[Ntxw]

Over/under for excessive heat warnings later this week? I believe heat index 105F+ of 2 hours or more is DFW's criteria for one.

[bubba hotep]

18z GFS with a couple of tropical disturbances into S. Texas that drop rain on the only places in S. Texas that aren't in drought conditions lol

[South Texas Storms]

https://twitter.com/NWSSanAntonio/status/1533846022434312198?cxt=HHwWjMC-tZW1qMkqAAAA

So depressing. And it's probably going to get a lot worse before it gets any better unfortunately.