***CURRENT WATCHES/WARNINGS/STORMS/REPORTS IN THE US***

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0120
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1114 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN AL...MIDDLE/ERN TN...NWRN GA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 220514Z - 220915Z

HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS FORECAST TO SHIFT GENERALLY NEWD ACROSS
NRN AL INTO NWRN GA THROUGH AT LEAST 8Z...WITH INCREASE IN PRECIP
RATES ACROSS MID/ERN TN. THIS HAZARD WILL INCLUDE STEEP TERRAIN
OF SRN-MOST APPALACHIAN REGION. RAIN RATES GENERALLY 1-2
INCHES/HOUR SHOULD BE COMMON...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS 2.5-3
INCHES/HOUR POSSIBLE IN MOST INTENSE CORES.

MODIFIED RAOBS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1.25-1.5 INCH PW
WILL BE COMMON...WITH INCREASING LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL MIXING RATIOS
AS MOISTURE ADVECTION AND TRANSPORT CONTINUES FROM NRN GULF. LOW
LEVEL WAA-RELATED ASCENT/DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ACROSS THIS REGION AS UPPER VORTEX OVER SE TX MOVES NEARER. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED MUCAPE UP TO 800 J/KG AND
INCREASING COVERAGE OF TSTMS...WITH MERGING/TRAINING OF INTENSE
RAIN CORES INCREASINGLY PROBABLE. ALSO...ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD
STRENGTHEN AMIDST 50-70 KT LLJ.

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0119
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1054 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...E TX AND WRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 220454Z - 220730Z

SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD MOVE NEWD ACROSS
PORTIONS E TX AND WRN LA THROUGH AT LEAST 7Z. MOST INTENSE CELLS
MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE HAIL...HOWEVER SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO
MARGINAL/ISOLATED FOR WW.

STRONG MIDLEVEL DPVA/DESTABILIZATION -- AMIDST COLD CORE REGION
OF CYCLONIC VORTEX ALOFT -- YIELDS 500-1000 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE
IN ASSOCIATION WITH TSTMS NOW MOVING NEWD ACROSS LFK REGION.
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ROOTED IN 700-850 MB LAYER BASED ON RUC/ETA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WITH 7-8 DEG C/KM 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES TO
MAINTAIN CAPE ALOFT...AND FORCED ASCENT OCCURRING ATOP ELEVATED
FRONTAL SURFACE. 60-90 KT TOTAL SHEAR IN CONVECTIVE CLOUD LAYER
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO TSTM ORGANIZATION...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL AIR MASS
WILL STABILIZE FARTHER AS CAA DEEPENS POST-FRONTAL LAYER.

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THRU EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE ERN
FL PANHANDLE AND NRN FL PENINSULA...MUCH OG GA...CENTRAL AND ERN SC
INTO MUCH OF S CENTRAL AND ERN NC. THE MDT RISK AREA IS TO THE
RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W AQQ 20 E DHN 10 N CSG 30 W ATL 45 ENE RMG
10 NNW AHN 45 NW AGS 40 WNW CAE 40 S CLT 30 NW SOP 10 SW RDU 30 E
RWI 35 SE ECG ...CONT... 35 SE JAX 40 S CTY.

SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS
TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE MOB 40 S SEM 10 WSW BHM 25 N HSV
35 W CSV 45 NE CSV 50 NE TYS 35 ESE TRI 20 SSE LYH 15 E RIC 25 S
WAL ...CONT... 25 SSE VRB 55 SSE FMY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE GPT
35 SSE LUL 20 ESE JAN 25 E GLH 35 SW MEM 25 NNW DYR 50 NE PAH
25 S BMG 20 NNW LUK 20 WNW UNI 30 SW MGW 50 WNW MRB 15 ENE HGR
35 SSW ABE 20 SSW JFK.



A MORE COMPLEX SITUATION DEVELOPS FOR THIS PERIOD AS VIGOROUS
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER ERN TX MOVES NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY DURING THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...
STRONG POLAR VORTEX REINTENSIFIES OVER HUDSON BAY DROPPING ANOTHER
STRONG TROUGH SWD ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO NRN MT BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

SITUATION LOOKS LIKE A STRONG DAMAGING WIND EVENT SETTING UP AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD FROM ERN AL/WRN GA NEWD THRU THE ERN
CAROLINAS BEFORE 23/00Z. MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE THE STRENGTHENING OF
THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY INCREASING GRADIENT WIND ACROSS THE SERN
U.S. MIXED WITH A SQUALL LINE ALONG THE FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
RAPIDLY EWD AND NEWD.

COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE FROM LOW OVER NWRN MS SEWD AND SWD
ALONG THE SRN MS/AL BORDER AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. BY 18Z...
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE THRU NWRN GA AND THE CENTRAL FL
PANHANDLE BEFORE KICKING EWD FROM SWRN NC THRU NWRN FL PENINSULA BY
23/00Z. VERY STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH SLY 850 MB WINDS OF 50-60 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
UNDERNEATH SWLY/SLY 500 MB WINDS OF 95 KT INCREASING TO 105 KT
DURING THE DAY. THUS...STRONG SPEED SHEAR WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
WITH THE BEST DIRECTIONAL SHEAR OVER THE ERN FL PANHANDLE AND NRN
FL BEFORE 22/20Z. THE ETA MODEL BRINGS THE WARM FRONT BOUNDARY TOO
FAR N INTO S CENTRAL VA BY 00Z...BUT FEEL THAT THE ETAKF HAS A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR DAMMING ALONG THE ERN
APPALACHIANS EXTENDING THIS FRONT FROM NRN SC NEWD THRU CENTRAL NC
INTO SERN VA AT 23/00Z.

AIR MASS IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AT BEST DURING THIS PERIOD AS
SBCAPE IS FORECAST TO BE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG ACROSS NRN FL.
THUS...IF THERE ARE ANY CHANCES FOR TORNADOES IT WOULD BE ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF FL PANHANDLE AND NRN FL PENINSULA PRIOR TO 22/18Z.
OTHERWISE...MAIN THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AS THIN
SQUALL LINE MOVES EWD/NEWD JUST AHEAD OF RAPIDLY ADVANCING COLD
FRONT. MODEL HODOGRAPHS DEPICTED STORM MOTIONS BETWEEN 50 AND 60
KT WITH THIS SQUALL LINE...A DEFINATE INDICATOR FOR DAMAGING WINDS.

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

Hail Reports
Time Size Location County State Lat Lon Comments
1255 75 LIVINGSTON POLK TX 3070 9493 (HOU)
1559 75 CHESTER TYLER TX 3091 9460 (LCH)
1940 75 KATY FORT BEND TX 2949 9573 (HOU)
1945 75 FULSHEAR FORT BEND TX 2968 9590 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (HOU)
1947 75 KATY HARRIS TX 2983 9545 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (HOU)
2014 75 HOUSTON HARRIS TX 2983 9545 REPORTED BY PUBLIC. (HOU)
2020 75 SPRING HARRIS TX 3008 9541 EVENT DURATION 20 MINUTES. REPORTED BY HAM RADIO OPERATOR. (HOU)
2043 175 NEW CANEY MONTGOMERY TX 3015 9520 REPORTED BY MEDIA. (HOU)
2053 75 LIVINGSTON POLK TX 3070 9493 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (HOU)
2100 75 5 S CLEVELAND LIBERTY TX 3026 9510 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (HOU)
2115 125 2 E CLEVELAND LIBERTY TX 3034 9506 REPORTED BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. (HOU)
2120 75 MOSCOW POLK TX 3091 9483 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL. (HOU)
2337 100 WELAKA PUTNAM FL 2948 8166 REPORTED BY FIRE CHIEF. (JAX)
0355 75 MONTICELLO LAWRENCE MS 3155 9011 REPORTED BY LAWRENCE SHERIFFS OFFICE. (JAN)
Wind Reports
Time Speed Location County State Lat Lon Comments
0200 UNK FRANKLIN COUNTY FRANKLIN MS 3146 9088 A FEW TREES DOWN. REPORTED BY FRANKLIN COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE. (JAN)
0350 UNK MONTICELLO LAWRENCE MS 3155 9011 A FEW TREES DOWN. REPORTED BY LAWRENCE COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE. (JAN)

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

Hail Reports
Time Size Location County State Lat Lon Comments
1530 75 NIXON GONZALES TX 2926 9776 (SAT)
1759 88 HALL LAVACA TX 3128 9904 (SAT)
Wind Reports
Time Speed Location County State Lat Lon Comments
1110 UNK 3 E GILLSBURG AMITE MS 3103 9060 A POWER POLE WAS KNOCKED DOWN. REPORTED BY THE PUBLIC. (NEW)
1115 UNK 2 E GREENSBURG ST HELENA LA 3081 9062 A TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN. REPORTED BY POLICE DEPARTMENT (NEW)

[hurrdavid]

can someone tell me if and when a tonado watch wll or is going to be issued for orlando today

[chadtm80]

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 18
STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
650 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2003

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EXTREME SOUTHEAST ALABAMA
EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA
GEORGIA
WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING FROM 650 AM UNTIL NOON EST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO
60 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 100 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST
OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA TO 50
MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF AUGUSTA GEORGIA.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO WATCH
NUMBER 15...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 17. WATCH NUMBER 15...17 WILL NOT
BE IN EFFECT AFTER 650 AM EST. CONTINUE...WW 16...

DISCUSSION...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ALONG BROKEN LINE OF STORMS MOVING E AT ABOUT 30 KTS ACROSS
EXTREME SE AL/WRN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE. STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL
SHEAR /ON THE ORDER 40 KTS/ AND LOW LCLS SUGGEST CONTINUED THREAT
FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH...EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21050.

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 19
STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
945 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2003

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 945 AM UNTIL 400
PM EST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST
OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF FLORENCE SOUTH CAROLINA
TO 50 MILES NORTH OF ROCKY MOUNT NORTH CAROLINA.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION... CONTINUE...WW 18...

DISCUSSION...WARM FRONT MOVING RAPIDLY NWD THRU ERN NC AHEAD OF
SQUALL LINE LOCATED AT 1430Z IN WRN SC. WITH VERY STRONG WIND
FIELDS FAVORABLE FOR BOTH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND ROTATING
STORMS...THE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS ALONG
SQUALL LINE AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS NC. PRIMARY THREAT
WILL BE WIND DAMAGE...HOWEVER ISOLATED TORNADOS ALSO EXPECTED.


AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23050.

[chadtm80]

That is one nasty line

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0126
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0914 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN KY AND TN...NE AL...NW GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 221514Z - 221715Z

SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

989 MB SURFACE LOW WEST SOUTHWEST OF NASHVILLE TN WILL CONTINUE
TO MIGRATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY BY MIDDAY.
AS THIS OCCURS...MOIST WARM SECTOR AIR MASS WITH 55-60F SURFACE
DEW POINTS WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE INTO
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY AS MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. VIGOROUS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY OCCURRING IN ZONE OF STRONG
DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WEST OF INTERSTATE
65... AND ALL INDICATIONS ARE ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL
PERSIST/INTENSIFY FURTHER AS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS UP WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS...PRIMARILY WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO APPEARS POSSIBLE...MAINLY WHERE
SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE HIGHER FROM PARTS OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA
INTO SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE.

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0127
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0934 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IND...FAR NWRN OHIO...AND SRN/SERN MI

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 221534Z - 222030Z

AN AXIS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NERN IND...FAR NWRN OH...AND SRN/SERN MI DURING THE MID AFTERNOON
HOURS TODAY...LASTING THROUGH THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL RATES TO
1"/HR ARE POSSIBLE WITH SW-NE ORIENTED MESOSCALE BANDS. ONGOING
MIXED PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

MID-LEVEL VORT CENTER OVER THE MID-MS RIVER VALLEY AT 22/15Z WILL
TRACK STEADILY NEWD TODAY REACHING CENTRAL OH BY 23/06Z. TROUGH
CONFIGURATION AND ASSOCIATED WIND FIELDS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A
SUSTAINED DEFORMATION ZONE AND ASSOCIATED 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS
AND PRECIPITATION...DEVELOPING NEWD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA OF
NERN IND...NWRN OH...AND SRN/SERN MI. AREA OF STRONGEST FORCING
IS LOCATED OVER SRN IL/SRN IND/WRN KY AT 1530Z...MOVING NEWD.

HIGH 700-500MB LAPSE RATES SHOULD FAVOR MESOSCALE BANDING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING...AND SUBSTANTIAL EVAPORATIVE COOLING
AS LOW-LEVELS SATURATE SHOULD ALLOW PBL TEMPERATURES TO FALL
BELOW FREEZING ALLOWING FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX TO CHANGE TO ALL SNOW.
FRONTOGENESIS FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN
21-04Z...DURING WHICH TIME 1 IN/HR SNOW RATES ARE LIKELY IN
NARROW SW-NE ORIENTED BANDS ACROSS NERN IND...SERN MI...AND FAR
NWRN OH...CONSISTENT WITH STRONG FORCING THROUGH SATURATED
DENDRITE GROWTH /-12C TO -16C/ LAYER BETWEEN 600-500MB PER ETA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM SW-NE LATE TONIGHT
AS 700MB LOW CENTER MOVES NE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0128
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0959 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...SC GA FL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 18...

VALID 221559Z - 221700Z

NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED BY 17Z.

SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EASTWARD AT 25 TO 30 KTS...AND
WILL PROGRESS EAST OF WW 18...INTO PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA... COASTAL GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA...BY AROUND
17Z. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING INTO THE 70S IN ADVANCE OF
SQUALL LINE... WEAK TO MODERATE SURFACE-BASED CAPE WILL HELP
MAINTAIN ACTIVITY... AND DOWNDRAFTS SHOULD CONTINUE AID DOWNWARD
TRANSFER OF HIGH MOMENTUM AIR. VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS
ARE EVIDENT IN VAD WIND DATA ON SOUTHEAST SECTOR OF DEEP
TENNESSEE VALLEY CYCLONE...WITH 50+ KT SOUTHERLY FLOW PRESENT
BELOW 1 KM ALONG LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS JUST AHEAD OF LINE. DAMAGING
SURFACE WIND GUSTS REMAIN HIGHLY LIKELY...MAINLY FROM
JACKSONVILLE FL AREA NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.