Historic outbreak Sunday: The aftermath

[CrazyC83]

Looking pretty ominous now for an evening/overnight outbreak...those are the most dangerous too! Could be a long night there!

[WaitingForSiren]

Doesnt surprise me. I figured thats what would happen. Still expect a high risk day tomorrow.

[CrazyC83]

While afternoon outbreaks tend to produce the most tornadoes, nighttime outbreaks are the most dangerous in terms of potential loss of life. Had Evansville occured in the daytime, the death toll would be much lower (if not zero).

[TexasStooge]

I just found out that there's a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms for the Eastern 1/2 of North Texas including the Dallas/Ft. Worth area and the 4 corners region. More info can be found here: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

[jasons2k]

welcome to the party

[Brent]

...MS VALLEY...
AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SW WILL EJECT EWD
TONIGHT DEEPENING AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER THE SRN PLAINS
THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THIS POTENT UPPER-TROUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY FOCUSED AS A 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET PUNCHES INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
COMBINED WITH VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR A MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXISTS FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY.

A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS THE TROUGH SWINGS EWD INTO THE SRN
PLAINS. AT 12Z MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES A SQUALL-LINE OR BROKEN LINE
OF STORMS ALONG THE WEST EDGE OF A WELL-DEVELOPED LOW-LEVEL JET WITH
THE LINE EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY ACROSS THE OZARKS
INTO THE SRN PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THE STRONG
LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD TRANSPORT SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F AS FAR
NORTH AS SRN IL DURING THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE PROGRESSIVE
AND VERY WELL-DEVELOPED NATURE OF THE UPPER-TROUGH SUGGESTS THAT
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. IN ADDITION...THE
15Z TO 18Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY SHOW
IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PROFILES WITH STRONG LOW TO MID-LEVEL VEERING AND
SUFFICIENT SPEED SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WITH WELL-DEVELOP LOW-LEVEL
MESOCYCLONES.

ALTHOUGH NOT YET CERTAIN...A TORNADO OUTBREAK WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IF A LARGE NUMBER OF STORMS REMAIN DISCRETE AS THE
INITIAL LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS DRIFTS EWD AND EXPANDS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE MS VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR LONG TRACK STRONG OR VIOLENT TORNADOES SHOULD BE WHERE
INSTABILITY IS LOCALLY MAXIMIZED AND JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW AND
IN THE NOSE OF THE MID-LEVEL JET. IF THE MAJORITY OF THE STORMS
REMAIN LINEAR INSTEAD OF DISCRETE...A WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE EVENT
WOULD BE MORE LIKELY AS A SQUALL-LINE MOVES EWD ACROSS THE REGION.
WIND GUSTS ABOVE 70 KTS AND LARGE HAIL ABOVE 2 INCHES WOULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES EMBEDDED IN OR AHEAD OF
THE LINE. THE HEAVIEST CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS SHOULD
BE ALONG THE MOIST AXIS ACROSS AR...LA...MS AND WRN TN ALTHOUGH SOME
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS THE OH VALLEY AND
SRN LOWER MI DUE TO THE STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW AS THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET PASSES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
DURING THE NIGHT...A SOLID LINE SHOULD DRIFT EWD ACROSS THE OH AND
TN VALLEYS WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT GRADUALLY DECREASING.

[CrazyC83]

Starting to become more ominous by the hour...March 9, 2006 could be a day we may never forget! Could the Katrina of tornado outbreaks happen? (I hope not!!!)

[6SpeedTA95]

Starting to become more ominous by the hour...March 9, 2006 could be a day we may never forget! Could the Katrina of tornado outbreaks happen? (I hope not!!!)

May 3rd 1999 will be > than tomorrow

at least I hope

Late tonight and tomorrow is looking like a dangerous setup.

[CrazyC83]

Of course, to get to the level of being the "Katrina" of tornado outbreaks, it would need about 200 tornadoes over a very large area...and it is too early for such, as it would need to reach from the northern Great Lakes all the way down to the Gulf Coast and out to the Plains.

[CrazyC83]

Tornado Watch 39

SEL9 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 39 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1235 PM CST WED MAR 8 2006 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS WESTERN MISSOURI EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1235 PM UNTIL 800 PM CST. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF CHILLICOTHE MISSOURI TO 45 MILES SOUTH OF CHANUTE KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. DISCUSSION...SURFACE LOW NERN KS WITH WARM FRONT EWD THRU MKC INTO CENTRAL MO. DRY LINE EXTENDS SSWWD FROM LOW INTO NCENTRAL OK. AIRMASS HAS BECOME MDTLY UNSTABLE E OF DRY LINE WITH A WEAKENING CAP. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS AREA SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS DURING AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH BETTER REGION VICINITY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR VICINITY WARM FRONT. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040. ...HALES

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0039_prob.html

Tornado risk is definitely there, but more along the lines of isolated ones in that watch. That is also to the north of the area of greatest concern.

[6SpeedTA95]

Tornado Watch 39

SEL9 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 39 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1235 PM CST WED MAR 8 2006 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS WESTERN MISSOURI EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1235 PM UNTIL 800 PM CST. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF CHILLICOTHE MISSOURI TO 45 MILES SOUTH OF CHANUTE KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. DISCUSSION...SURFACE LOW NERN KS WITH WARM FRONT EWD THRU MKC INTO CENTRAL MO. DRY LINE EXTENDS SSWWD FROM LOW INTO NCENTRAL OK. AIRMASS HAS BECOME MDTLY UNSTABLE E OF DRY LINE WITH A WEAKENING CAP. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS AREA SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS DURING AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH BETTER REGION VICINITY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR VICINITY WARM FRONT. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040. ...HALES

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0039_prob.html

Tornado risk is definitely there, but more along the lines of isolated ones in that watch. That is also to the north of the area of greatest concern.

The biggest area of concern is south of Interstate 44 and east of interstate 35 in terms of tornadic risk through midnight. But as you said there's a chance for isolated tornados as supercells develope.

[WaitingForSiren]

THE FOLLOWING IS THE OPINION OF A STORM2K MEMBER AND IS IN NO WAY AN OFFICIAL FORECAST

[jasons2k]

Looks like you ultimately shifted to the west a bit....

[WaitingForSiren]

Yeah I did, but I still dont think my last graphic was too far off. The models seem to be slowing this thing down a bit and it doesnt surprise me either, so i decided to treck a little westward with my highest risks.

And in case you are wondering, I think spc is overdone on TODAYS severe threat,. I just cant see a 45% probability for wind damage is such a heavily capped area. I dunno, the tornado threat seems reasonable, but I think the wind damage probs are overdone. Much like november 27 2005 when a large wind damage area was indicated but mainly hail and tornadoes were the threats. I still think Hail is the biggest threat this evening into the overnight with isolated tornadoes likely. But, I think the tornado threat will be further north near southwest missouri and into southeast kansas as opposed to southest OK and northeast TX, I guess we'll have to wait and see how it all goes down.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looking at the latest SPC update..it looks like SE Texas will get in on the action too! Tonight/Tomorrow morning could get active here as potent thunderstorms moves through the area. Current risk level is SLIGHT, but if the cap breaks...then things are going to EXPLODE! I will be watching closely.

[6SpeedTA95]

Yeah I did, but I still dont think my last graphic was too far off. The models seem to be slowing this thing down a bit and it doesnt surprise me either, so i decided to treck a little westward with my highest risks.

And in case you are wondering, I think spc is overdone on TODAYS severe threat,. I just cant see a 45% probability for wind damage is such a heavily capped area. I dunno, the tornado threat seems reasonable, but I think the wind damage probs are overdone. Much like november 27 2005 when a large wind damage area was indicated but mainly hail and tornadoes were the threats. I still think Hail is the biggest threat this evening into the overnight with isolated tornadoes likely. But, I think the tornado threat will be further north near southwest missouri and into southeast kansas as opposed to southest OK and northeast TX, I guess we'll have to wait and see how it all goes down.

I was looking at that too. I think there's definately an above average tornadic risk and definately more than the SPC is showing at this time for north east oklahoma and southeast kansas.

[CrazyC83]

Here is my view, between now and tomorrow night (by no means an official forecast):

Level 1 (Slight threat) - Roughly an area from Saginaw, MI and Des Moines, IA to the north-central Gulf of Mexico and from Abilene, TX to the Blue Ridge.

Level 2 (Moderate threat) - Roughly an area from Fort Wayne, IN to the Gulf Coast and from Enid, OK to Knoxville, TN

Level 3 (Significant threat) - Roughly an area from Champaign, IL south to Hattiesburg, MS and from Oklahoma City, OK east to Chattanooga, TN

Level 4 (High threat) - Roughly an area from Greenville, MS north to St. Louis, MO and from Evansville, IN to Hot Springs, AR, centered around Memphis, TN

Level 5 (Extreme threat) - None yet.

[Extremeweatherguy]

From the NWS discussion in Houston:

THE 12Z MODEL RUNS ARE INDICATING A
BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
PW`S CLIMB TO AROUND 1.4 INCHES BY 12Z THURSDAY AND 250 MB WINDS
SPLIT OVER EAST TEXAS. THERE IS A HINT OF A 250 MB SPEED MAX
DEPARTING THE AREA AROUND 12Z THURSDAY AS WELL. POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY IS IMPRESSIVE AND WIND ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO
IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER...A STRONG CAP IS IN PLACE AND IT IS UNCLEAR
WHETHER THE CAP WILL ERODE IN TIME FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. THE
CAP IS WEAKER OVER THE NORTHEAST AND HAVE PLACED HIGHER POPS OVER
THE NE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE STRONG CAP IN PLACE WILL HOLD
OVER MOST OF THE CWA. HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH POPS OVER
THE SW PART OF THE CWA AND MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS OVER THE NE.
HAVE ALSO MENTIONED THE POSSIBILTY OF WIND DAMAGE OVER THE NE
ZONES. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY WILL LIKELY GO SEVERE IN A
HURRY.

If that cap breaks...we are going to find ourselves in quite a bad situation!

Look at all this storm potential...those are some raging upper level winds!
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _024.shtml

[CrazyC83]

In a picture, here is my view - again, not an official forecast, but my personal prediction:

[jasons2k]

Yeah I did, but I still dont think my last graphic was too far off. The models seem to be slowing this thing down a bit and it doesnt surprise me either, so i decided to treck a little westward with my highest risks.

And in case you are wondering, I think spc is overdone on TODAYS severe threat,. I just cant see a 45% probability for wind damage is such a heavily capped area. I dunno, the tornado threat seems reasonable, but I think the wind damage probs are overdone. Much like november 27 2005 when a large wind damage area was indicated but mainly hail and tornadoes were the threats. I still think Hail is the biggest threat this evening into the overnight with isolated tornadoes likely. But, I think the tornado threat will be further north near southwest missouri and into southeast kansas as opposed to southest OK and northeast TX, I guess we'll have to wait and see how it all goes down.

I was just giving you a hard time hehe. I agree with you, I think the wind damage threat is overdone.