Major tornado outbreak Sunday...the aftermath..

[6SpeedTA95]

Im still hesitant to say today will be a significant tornado outbreak...as there are still a few negative factors, but it is appearing as if it will be a more threatening situation now based off the latest satellite/radar trends.

I dunno that we're gonna have a major outbreak I dont think we will. But there will probably be tornadoes based on the setup at this point. Also, guys check the dryline its firing right now. The more action we get now the less chance we'll have at super severe weather this afternoon.

[6SpeedTA95]

Severe thunderstorm warning folks

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
OKC071-301615-
/O.NEW.KOUN.SV.W.0037.060330T1541Z-060330T1615Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
941 AM CST THU MAR 30 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
KAY COUNTY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA

* UNTIL 1015 AM CST

* AT 941 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES WEST OF TONKAWA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
65 MPH. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BLACKWELL...CHILOCCO...NEWKIRK...
PECKHAM AND TONKAWA.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 212 AND 226.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH NO ADVANCE WARNING.
MOVE IMMEDIATELY TO A STORM SHELTER... BASEMENT OR STURDY BUILDING IF
A TORNADO IS SIGHTED.

LAT...LON 3669 9749 3661 9738 3697 9694 3700 9726

$$

[6SpeedTA95]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0360
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0942 AM CST THU MAR 30 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL OK INTO CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 109...

VALID 301542Z - 301715Z

POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE WITHIN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS/NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. AREAS SOUTH OF
TORNADO WATCH 109 ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF AN
ADDITIONAL WW.

INITIATION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALREADY APPEARS UNDERWAY ALONG
DRY LINE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA...IN RESPONSE TO STRONG FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH 70+ KT CYCLONIC 500 MB JET STREAK NOSING THROUGH THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION. AS UPPER FEATURE CONTINUES EAST
NORTHEASTWARD...ADDITIONAL CELLS LIKELY WILL DEVELOP ALONG DRY
LINE...NORTHWARD TO THE VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW AS IS IT MIGRATES
NORTHWEST OF DODGE TO NEAR HILL CITY BY AROUND 18Z. BECOMING
INCREASINGLY BASED IN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE OF 1500 TO 2000
J/KG...SHEAR PROFILES ARE ALREADY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. LARGE
CLOCKWISE CURVED HODOGRAPHS BENEATH 40 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES...WHICH COULD BECOME STRONG ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA/CENTRAL KANSAS BY 18-20Z.

..KERR.. 03/30/2006


ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...

38480012 39010017 39729918 39749793 38359728 37089741
36499743 35579785 35029807 34649886 34719951 35259952
36399930 37139924 37909980


Interesting

[CrazyC83]

I'm still trying to assess the situation - I feel the outbreak potential has enlarged.

[6SpeedTA95]

I'm still trying to assess the situation - I feel the outbreak potential has enlarged.

I dont think we're gonna see a march 12 of a few weeks ago or a May 3rd 1999...but I definately wouldn't be surprised if we have 30 or so reports of tornadoes.

[CrazyC83]

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST - just my prediction:

It will be a doozy today! I have significantly enlarged the Level 4 risk, but feel that the widespread tornado risk is not significant enough to go to a Level 5 at the moment (although a quick update could change that). Now looks more like a tornado event and less like a straight-line wind event though.



The activity should continue tomorrow, but not to the same degree. Nonetheless, I feel that the SPC has downplayed the risk significantly and I believe a Level 3 alert is warranted. The Ohio Valley is the main threat area. The Level 2 alert over North Texas is mainly for large hail and for a separate system.

[6SpeedTA95]

You guys watching the dryline blow up in oklahoma?

[WaitingForSiren]

Yeah ive been watching storms pop across OK and KS and this is probably going to cause problems. Honestly, I dont think there will be an outbreak of tornadoes this afternoon. I could see 20 reports but thats it.

[jasons2k]

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST - just my prediction:

It will be a doozy today! I have significantly enlarged the Level 4 risk, but feel that the widespread tornado risk is not significant enough to go to a Level 5 at the moment (although a quick update could change that). Now looks more like a tornado event and less like a straight-line wind event though.


The activity should continue tomorrow, but not to the same degree. Nonetheless, I feel that the SPC has downplayed the risk significantly and I believe a Level 3 alert is warranted. The Ohio Valley is the main threat area. The Level 2 alert over North Texas is mainly for large hail and for a separate system.

I think your risk areas are WAY too large. There shouldn't be any convection this far south due to the cap - and most certainly won't be anything out of this down into Mexico.

[6SpeedTA95]

Yeah ive been watching storms pop across OK and KS and this is probably going to cause problems. Honestly, I dont think there will be an outbreak of tornadoes this afternoon. I could see 20 reports but thats it.

I'm talking with a buddy of mine right now he works for NWS he seems to think that these storms right now may not play much impact on the storms in 5 or 6 hrs from now.

But I think you could be right if these storms sap a lot of energy it'll be rain tonight maybe some small hail.

[6SpeedTA95]

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST - just my prediction:

It will be a doozy today! I have significantly enlarged the Level 4 risk, but feel that the widespread tornado risk is not significant enough to go to a Level 5 at the moment (although a quick update could change that). Now looks more like a tornado event and less like a straight-line wind event though.


The activity should continue tomorrow, but not to the same degree. Nonetheless, I feel that the SPC has downplayed the risk significantly and I believe a Level 3 alert is warranted. The Ohio Valley is the main threat area. The Level 2 alert over North Texas is mainly for large hail and for a separate system.

I think your risk areas are WAY too large. There shouldn't be any convection this far south due to the cap - and most certainly won't be anything out of this down into Mexico.

The cap south of the dallas area is impressive.

[tornadotony]

I think Crazy's outlook is just fine except for the eastward extent of the level 4 is a bit much. I DO think this is going to be a bad day across the plains. A very bad day. Even with early convection (with a sig torn parameter above 3 already), there should be large tornadoes across OK and KS.

[6SpeedTA95]

I think Crazy's outlook is just fine except for the eastward extent of the level 4 is a bit much. I DO think this is going to be a bad day across the plains. A very bad day. Even with early convection (with a sig torn parameter above 3 already), there should be large tornadoes across OK and KS.

You dont think mexico to canada is a bit much? I do...but I like the fact he posts maps on a regular basis

[WaitingForSiren]

I agree that his maps are WAY too large and not very intricate, but I dont think hes posting them for pinpoint accuracy.

[Weatherfreak14]

You guys watching the dryline blow up in oklahoma?

Yes on satilitte its been really spectacular show.

[Weatherfreak14]

Sry to double post but First Tornado Warning has been issued

WFUS53 KICT 301813
TORICT
KSC053-169-301900-
/O.NEW.KICT.TO.W.0007.060330T1813Z-060330T1900Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1213 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN ELLSWORTH COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS.
NORTHWESTERN SALINE COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS.

* UNTIL 100 PM CST

* AT 1210 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR KANOPOLIS STATE PARK...OR 6 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF KANOPOLIS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
BROOKVILLE...KANOPOLIS STATE PARK

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. MOVE INTO YOUR TORNADO SHELTER NOW!

LAT...LON 3865 9814 3862 9793 3894 9763 3894 9790
3886 9789 3884 9808

$$

CHANCE




[6SpeedTA95]

Guys I just got back from lunch. Judging from what I'm seeing and the indicators I'm seeing there's still a significant chance of tornadic wather this afternoon. The line has not become linear and cells especially north of I40 are relatively weak. As the system continues to push east and the main system approaches from the Rockies the air will becoming increasingly unstable. I think we could have an afternoon full of action.

[6SpeedTA95]

A bunch fo the cells here in oklahoma are beginning to rotate.

[Weatherfreak14]

I'm seening them on the radar. I'll post pics later this eve.

[6SpeedTA95]

The cells are moving into more favorable air with each passing minute, I'm kinda anxious to see what happens the next 5 hrs or so.