Major tornado outbreak next Thursday?

[CrazyC83]

Crazy, I think your map for tomorrow is actually pretty good overall. Usuaully i think they are a little too big and vague, but I think tomorrow could be a widespread devastating outbreak.

Thanks; I am slightly to the east of the SPC in the thought that it could be long-lasting well into the night...

[6SpeedTA95]

Anyone have any ideas what time this is gonna kickoff tomorrow? Hopefully it doesn't start east of I35 and hopefully its after 4pm...I've gotta road trip to take tomorrow to ft smith arkansas and probably wont get outta there till close to 1:30 or 2.

From what I'm looking at it looks like things might begin to pop right over I35 sometime between 3 and 4pm which should put me in the clear, does this gel with others too?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The 12z gfs is discounted as far as I can see. Lets wait intill the 18 and 00z runs. I see a major tornadoe outbeak tomarrow!!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Holy sh#$ the nam has came in with 977 milibars.

[SouthFloridawx]

[6SpeedTA95]

I just wonder if the models dont have it a bit too far east, at least I'm hoping

[6SpeedTA95]

My map for tomorrow

**NOT AN OFFICIAL FORCAST**


Green = slight
Yellow = MDT
Red = High
Purple = Extreme

I dunno that the SPC will put a high chance at svr weather on the map tomorrow but I could see it happening based on the fact that the dewpoints are running about 12 to 15hrs ahead of forcast. Depending on daytime heating tomorrow we could be in for some rough weather. I do think the models have it pushing east a bit fast.

[NWIASpotter]

Remember that we will have to put up with mixing tomorrow, so those dewpoints will be running lower than what they will appear to be tomorrow morning. I think if we can have low 60 Td's in the NE/IA area by tomorrow morning then we should be just fine, if we are still running the in the 50s then we could have issues... Hard to say though.

[CrazyC83]

Here are the chances of various types of event from tomorrow through Saturday - NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST, just my prediction:

Any severe weather outbreak - 90%
Tornado outbreak - 70%
Major tornado outbreak - 60%
Legendary tornado outbreak - 40%
Record tornado outbreak - 10%

Major outbreak: >25 tornadoes + a killer, or >50 tornadoes
Legendary outbreak: >50 tornadoes + an F5 or major killer, or >100 tornadoes
Record outbreak: >150 tornadoes + 7 or more F5's

[cheezyWXguy]

I see a major to legendary outbreak...record doesnt seem likely at all( altho possible, I'd say 5-15%)

[jkt21787]

Using your critiera, here are my guesses...

Any Severe Weather Outbreak...90%
Tornado Outbreak...60%
Major Tornado Outbreak...40%
Legendary Tornado Outbreak...25%
Record Tornado Outbreak...Less than 1%

[Gorky]

Whilst I think it's likely we have a tornado outbreak, I wouldn't be overly surprised if this just ends up as a moderate tornado day with more hail and wind reports than anything else. I've seen better days than this before turn out disappointing. Things to note are the storms in the south around OK/AR will be flying with some very fast motions, and storms in the north may start off relatively high based dimishing tornado threat until later. I think the best chacne for severe tornados exists around the southern portion of the watch area, but I certainly wouldn't want to be chasing those.. I think 60mph storm motions aren't out of the question although 40-50 will be more likely.

[simplykristi]

I am not sure how tomorrow will pan out... But it looks like I am on the west side of the moderate risk for severe weather tomorrow.

Kristi

[conestogo_flood]

Is it starting? Severe thunderstorm warnings in Iowa and Missouri, the slight risk now covers that area. Also, severe thunderstorm warnings in north central Texas.

[6SpeedTA95]

7 F5's from one system? Ummmm has that EVER happened?

[Beam]

It's just a couple of instability storms. The real "fun" begins early tomorrow afternoon.

[jkt21787]

7 F5's from one system? Ummmm has that EVER happened?

Yeah, the Super Outbreak April 3-4, 1974. Don't know the exact number (it may have been 7) but I know it was at least that.

That is why the comparions of this outbreak and any to that one are, in a word, outlandish.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Heres mine...


Any severe weather outbreak - 95%
Tornado outbreak - 80%
Major tornado outbreak - 75%
Legendary tornado outbreak - 60%
Record tornado outbreak - 20%

Major outbreak: >25 tornadoes + a killer, or >50 tornadoes
Legendary outbreak: >50 tornadoes + an F5 or major killer, or >100 tornadoes
Record outbreak: >150 tornadoes + 7 or more F5's

[6SpeedTA95]

The system is already over far western kansas looks like things may be a bust in oklahoma tomorrow unless this thing slows up over night.

[senorpepr]

Okay... using the same critieria as above... here's my forecast.

Any severe weather outbreak - 99%
Tornado outbreak - 95%
Major tornado outbreak - 50%
Legendary tornado outbreak - 15%
Record tornado outbreak - <1%