SPC issues slight risk of severe wx for South/Southeast Tx

wxmann_91 · #101 Postby **wxmann_91** » Wed Apr 26, 2006 1:16 am

Big time bust - LOL

Big time supercell south of Bryan, should it hold together, might reach Houston in a few hours. Strong couplet and hook with that cell, not surprisingly, TOR has been issued.

What likely kept today dry for ya guys was probably some shortwave ridging in between shortwave troughs that triggered the tstorms in LA and west TX earlier, thus the capping held and no initation occurred. However, with shortwave trough moving into your area, tstorms have initated, though they are elevated. Will watch if they can get sfc based - this situation is similar to the Evansville setup - though there might be just a tad little helicity to work with. However if the LLJ kicks up SE TX is in huge trouble.

Watch out. Even if these storms do not produce tornadoes, they can produce large hail and strong damaging winds!

Yankeegirl · #102 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Wed Apr 26, 2006 2:06 am

Its storming and raining here .. Just started... I am happy to at least get something outta this line!!! We do have a severe thunderstoem watch till 7 am

Extremeweatherguy · #103 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Apr 26, 2006 2:12 am

severe T-storm warnings going out fast! May be this was not a bust..

Yankeegirl · #104 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Wed Apr 26, 2006 2:14 am

I thought it was too... You getting any rain yet?

Extremeweatherguy · #105 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Apr 26, 2006 2:27 am

yeah I am getting poured on (with may be even a little hail...can not tell for sure though because it's dark). The most amazing part is the lightning though. This is some pretty constant lightning with this storm!

Johnny · #106 Postby **Johnny** » Wed Apr 26, 2006 8:24 am

Well I sure am glad y'all got some rain. I got a very light shower with some lightning and thunder for about 25 minutes...nothing to write home to momma about, that's for sure. Hopefully this weekend will bring me some good soakers.

cctxhurricanewatcher · #107 Postby **cctxhurricanewatcher** » Wed Apr 26, 2006 9:01 am

Nothing here at my house in Corpus. Just alot of lighting and thunder. All bark and no bite. My newborn baby will be a year old the next time we get more than an inch of rain.

#108 Postby **Portastorm** » Wed Apr 26, 2006 9:19 am

cctxhurricanewatcher wrote:Nothing here at my house in Corpus. Just alot of lighting and thunder. All bark and no bite. My newborn baby will be a year old the next time we get more than an inch of rain.

Nah CC, you're just getting set up for this summer ... y'all will probably break your drought with either a tropical storm or hurricane.

This time we didn't get anything in Austin ... probably because the Legislature is in town, ha! :lol:

#109 Postby **jasons2k** » Wed Apr 26, 2006 9:40 am

I got .32" overnight. At least something was in the bucket this AM

cctxhurricanewatcher · #110 Postby **cctxhurricanewatcher** » Wed Apr 26, 2006 10:09 am

Portastorm wrote:
cctxhurricanewatcher wrote:Nothing here at my house in Corpus. Just alot of lighting and thunder. All bark and no bite. My newborn baby will be a year old the next time we get more than an inch of rain.

Nah CC, you're just getting set up for this summer ... y'all will probably break your drought with either a tropical storm or hurricane.

This time we didn't get anything in Austin ... probably because the Legislature is in town, ha!

Now, don't say that. A quick moving TS, yes. A Hurricanne, no thank you. And if we do I hope it rains itself out over Austin. But if the Legislature is still in town at that time, the rain will probably evaporate due to all of the hot air coming from the capitol building. :lol:

However I was looking at the overnight NWS AFD and they seem to think a squal line will come through Friday night into Saturday morning. I think I will wash both cars and leave them out Friday evening as well as turn on my sprinkler system. The combo of all three should attract every rain cloud within miles to my house. Right?

Extremeweatherguy · #111 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Apr 26, 2006 2:51 pm

Personally...I think the Fri/Sat event looks the most promising for storms and rain out of all of the last 3 events. The latest 12Z GFS shows the chance for a potential severe OUTBREAK as well. The factors that may lead to the outbreak include: a strong low pressure area just to our north; lots of moisture; strong upper level winds; good low level shear; and potentially some good instability. Here is a look at hour 78 (as a damaging squall line may be moving through):

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _078.shtml

Extremeweatherguy · #112 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Apr 26, 2006 3:46 pm

Here is part of the Afternoon discussion from the NWS concerning the event on Fri/Sat:

THE MODELS ARGUE FOR A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL COOLING TO HELP WEAKEN
THE CAP AND STRONG SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN PLACE. THE ONLY
POTENTIAL NEGATIVE FACTOR TOWARD SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THE AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY PRESENT.

9pm Update:

Here is a look at the 18Z GFS for 66 hrs. out (which turns out to be around daybreak Saturday):

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _066.shtml

and here is the 18Z NAM for the same time period:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _066.shtml
^^Is a few hours slower than the GFS^^

SPC issues slight risk of severe wx for South/Southeast Tx

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