Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

this figures I'm on my way to the bvi and wll lose intenet after I leave san juan in 15 min. can anyone tell me when it should get to the bvi and when it should be gone.

Well,for the BVI islands,by late tonight or tomorrow morning the bad weather should arrive.However if it splits the strongest part may miss Tortola and Virgin Gorda.Have a good trip.

[rjgator]

thank you. glad I brougt my rain gear.

[cycloneye]

The NHC mentioned at the 11:30 AM Tropical Weather Outlook about the not low pressures in the islands as you posted in that map.

539
ABNT20 KNHC 171518
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT JUN 17 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. HOWEVER...SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT PRESSURES ARE HIGH IN THE AREA...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...
WITH THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY SPREADING ACROSS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41100

Bouy 41100 just east of Guadeloupe doesn't show pressure falls at all.

[boca]

In my observations this wave is moving NNW and probably won't effect Puerto Rico that much other than alittle extra moisture. No widespread rain event.

[cycloneye]

when do you think it will reach our area?

Barbara,when you asked that question last night,I said to you by today it would start to rain there .However things change and now it looks like it will be delayed,or maybe a non rain event for the NE Caribbean islands if it moves NW.

[msbee]

Luis, yes, I realize that.
The sky here has actually cleared up since earlier this morning.
The system looks like it is barely moving and it may well move NW.
Well, I am enjoying the nice weather
although we could always use a little rain.

Barbara

[Extremeweatherguy]

The wave axis extends well south of the current convection, so if anything else fires along it, you guys may be in for a wet and windy couple of days.

[Extremeweatherguy]

In my observations this wave is moving NNW and probably won't effect Puerto Rico that much other than alittle extra moisture. No widespread rain event.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

Take a look at this visible loop^^. The wave actually extends well south of the Convection. JB thinks this wave may reach the Gulf by the end of the week.

[mtm4319]

Pressures are down in some places since the last time I looked:

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is the 72 hour surface forecast:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif
^^Looks like the wave is aimed at the western Caribb./Gulf^^

[The Hurricaner]

I wish it came here.

[cycloneye]

FXCA62 TJSJ 172014
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
414 PM AST SAT JUN 17 2006

.DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE LOCAL REGION HAS BECOME SHEARED
STRONGLY BY TUTT WITH REFLECTINO THAT EXTENDS DOWN TO 15K FT PER
REGIONAL SOUNDING. SOME OF THE WAVE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE HAS MOVED
NW INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY...BUT SUBSIDENCE OCCURRING
WITHIN THE TUTT THAT IS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...IS WORKING
AGAINST RISING MOTION...AND ONLY THE STRONGEST LLVL FORCING...THAT
COINCIDENTLY IS OCCURRING IN BETTER MOISTURE ACROSS NW PR...IS
DEVELOPING INTO MODERATE TO DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO DRIFT OFF TO THE NW THIS EVENING...AND LEAVE SCATTERED SHALLOW
CONVECTION TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...BEFORE THE TUTT DRIFTS JUST FAR ENOUGH NW ON SUNDAY TO
DIMINISH OR END SINKING MOTION...WHICH WILL ALSO COINDICE WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. ATTM...THE BEST
ESTIMATE OF WAVE POSITION IS FROM THE EXTREME SE CARIB...NNE
ACROSS THE LEEWARDS...AND TO AROUND 20N 60W...MOVING NW 10 KT. ONE
COULD ARGUE THAT WEAK CYCLONIC TWISTING SEEN IN VIS IMAGERY TODAY
MOVING NW INTO THE LOCAL AREA...AND ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLC TO
THE N...IS PART OF THE WAVE BREAKING OFF. REGARDLESS...ATMOSPHERE
NOT ALLOWING FOR MORE THAN SHALLOW CONVECTION LOCALLY. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT WAVE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO LOCAL AREA
TUESDAY...AND ALIGNMENT OF ATLC RIDGE WILL PROMOTE A NW MOTION OF
MUCH OF THIS WAVE AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
REGION. BEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT WAVE EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY.


Above is the discussion from the NWS in San Juan about this wave and the next one behind.

The normal afternoon showers occured this afternoon in northern Puerto Rico due to the SE winds that part of the island recieved the most.

[El Nino]

Here is the 72 hour surface forecast:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif
^^Looks like the wave is aimed at the western Caribb./Gulf^^

Indeed, HP to the North should force the wave to go to GOM, which is more interesting I think ...

[Janice]

A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON
...WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN SEA
TONIGHT AND THEN PASS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED TO THIS WAVE TRAILS BEHIND THIS FEATURE...AND WILL
ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

MARINERS CAN GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 16 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
5 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY.

[caribepr]

Well, I just love the Weather Channel. At mid-day, wondering what had happened since I checked at 8:30 this morning (I was at the cart all day, just got home) the report was...as his hand was in front of everything..."it should just nick Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands and now, on to the Gulf of Mexico".
Thank you SOOOO much! I could tell from looking at the sky just about that much. Sorry for the vent but it's so irritating sometimes...grrrrrrrr
This morning the loops made it look like it was going north somewhat, but who knows? It's been really hot, and actually a really pretty day today, with the clear air for the last two days (though someone told me just awhile ago that Montserratt has blown again and we're in for ash in a day or few). Oh well.

[cycloneye]

Overnight in San Juan some scattered showers moved thru.This morning is a mix with sun and clouds with more scattered showersThe wave axis moves thru today so with the orografic effects of the mountains in Puerto Rico we can expect plenty of showers in the afternoon hours.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
530 AM AST SUN JUN 18 2006

.DISCUSSION...THE ANTICIPATED TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY CROSSING
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING...WILL INTERACT WITH LOCAL
EFFECTS TO DEVELOP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE
ALREADY SEEN SOME MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE
THIS MORNING...WITH RAIN GAUGES IN NAGUABO REGISTERING BETWEEN ONE
AND THREE INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT BANDS OF SHOWERS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS
EXPECTED...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AFTER THIS TROPICAL WAVE PASSES BY THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...
EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE REACHES THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAYS FORECAST TO REFLECT INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT TROPICAL WAVE...BUT VERY FEW CHANGES MADE TO
INHERITED FORECAST OVERALL.

[caribepr]

We're getting some heavy rain here but no one seems to mind. Some great tourists just said they are going snorkling now since "We're going to get wet anyway!" I love that!!

[Audrey2Katrina]

Wishing all well and safety... wave heading your way... keep us abreast of any developments there!

A2K

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 191009
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
609 AM AST MON JUN 19 2006

.DISCUSSION...
LINGERING LLVL MOISTURE TRAILING THE WEAK TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND RESPONDED TO DEEP LAYERED SSW TO SW
FLOW ON THE SE SIDE OF EXITING TUTT...PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...WITH TOPS 45-50K FT
UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE N MONA PASSAGE. SOME OF THIS
LAST MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE E AND SE OF PR TO
PRODUCE SOME MODERATE RAIN AMOUNTS...AND WILL WEAKEN IS IT MOVES
WNW ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. THE LEADING EDGE OF MORE
STABLE LOW TO MID LEVEL AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE NE CARIB AND VIRGIN
ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL SPREAD W ACROSS PR
THIS MORNING AND BRIEFLY PRODUCE FAIR WEATHER. SAL WAS SUGGESTED
IN THE 00Z GUADELOUPE SOUNDING LAST NIGHT...AND SHOULDD INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER...CHANGES ARE QUICKLY
ON THE WAY FOR THE LOCAL WEATHER.

NEXT TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY THIS
MORNING...MOVING WESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS...ACCOMPANIED BY A LEADING
LLVL TROUGH AND WIND SURGE...FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY A MID LEVEL
TROUGH AND MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE. GFS HAS BEEN MOVING THIS WAVE W
AND UNDERNEATH AN UPPER HIGH...WHICH IF WE WERE IN THE END OF
JULY OR AUGUST WOULD BE CONSIDERED A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...SURFACE PRESSURE A BIT HIGH
ACROSS THE REGION ATTM. BUT THE WAVE IS RESPONDING TO WARM SST`S
ACROSS THE REGION AND S TO SW ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW...WITH DEEP
CONVECTION HAVING ERUPTED OVERNIGHT IN DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG AND
BEHIND THE WAVE...WITH MORE ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION HAVING JUST
RECENTLY DEVELOPED WITHIN LLVL TROUGH BETWEEN 59 AND 60W. THIS
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY INTO THE CARIB TODAY AND PASS
JUST S OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE WAVE AT OUR LATITUDE SHOULD ADVECT INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON FOR TYPICAL DIURNAL WEATHER...WITH INCREASING
AND GUSTY WINDS...AND SQUALLY WEATHER EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM EAST
TO WEST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT INTO THE LOCAL MARINE AREA. GFS
HAS HAD A BIAS OF MOVING THE MAIN WAVE VORTICES TOO FAR N AND NW
WITH MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF THE PAST FEW TROPICAL WAVES...AND
MAY STILL BE DOING THE SAME WITH THIS WAVE. IF THIS WAVE TAKES A
WNW MOTION AFTER IT ENTERS THE CARIB...THEN DEEP CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS NOW OCCURRING AT THE N END OF THIS WAVE ALONG 16N COULD
MOVE INTO ST CROIX AND S AND SE SECTIONS OF PR OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIKELY FLASH
FLOODING. SO DESPITE OUR OVERFORECAST WITH THE PAST TROPICAL
WAVE...MODELS ARE FORECASTING AN UNSTABLE MID TO UPPER ATMOSPHERE
FOR THIS WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA...AND
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME VERY HEAVY RAINS TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. AMPLE MOISTURE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK FOR ACTIVE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
PAST EVENING QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED 20-25 KT WIND SURGE WITH AND
OVER THE TOP OF THIS APPROACHING THIS TROPICAL WAVE AND SHOULD
MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING TIME FRAME...AND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ADVERTISED FOR ALL OFF SHORE
WATERS FOR TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND TSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
WILL ORGANIZE INTO SQUALLS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 35 KT AND
HIGHER ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. STRONGEST WINDS WITH THIS EVENT
WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT OUT AHEAD AND WITH OF THE WAVE
AXIS...WITH PEAK IN SEAS THEN FOLLOWING INTO THE LOCAL WATERS ON
TUESDAY.




Above is discussion about this wave that will affect the NE Caribbean starting later today in the Leewards.