Southeast, Texas Under the Gun Tonight....

KatDaddy · #101 Postby **KatDaddy** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 9:02 pm

It has the feel of a tropical system. The radar has become much more quiet for now but expect that change in the next several hours.

Extremeweatherguy · #102 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 9:09 pm

That latest discussion is very worrisome. If it is even close to being right, then that means my area should see 2-3 more inches of rain...minimum! :eek:

jabman98 · #103 Postby **jabman98** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 9:16 pm

KatDaddy wrote:It has the feel of a tropical system. The radar has become much more quiet for now but expect that change in the next several hours.

It's been looking tropical-ish all day. The circulation has been visible, although slow, on the radar all day.

We were okay in Allison, despite devastating flooding to both south and east of us, one mile in each direction. So I'm hoping we'll be fine here again. Problem is, we've got a plugged up sewer line somewhere near us, and our backyard is already flooding. Have called the city, but I know they're overwhelmed right now.

HouTXmetro · #104 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 9:38 pm

WHat about the areas hit hard today in southeast Houston? Are we a main target for tonight? I live along the Clear Creek Watershed and it the Bayou flooded the entire area earlier.

TexasSam · #105 Postby **TexasSam** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 9:49 pm

The radar seems to be filling in real fast now, light rain here. expect to start lightning and thunder any moment.

jabman98 · #106 Postby **jabman98** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 9:53 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:WHat about the areas hit hard today in southeast Houston? Are we a main target for tonight? I live along the Clear Creek Watershed and it the Bayou flooded the entire area earlier.

Since late afternoon, I've heard the TV mets say that southwest Houston is expected to be more under the gun for this round - SugarLand, Katy, etc. Which is good news for those who have been hit today. Except they also said the situation isn't very certain and everyone needs to be cautious. The low's movements aren't easily predicted by models, apparently.

Extremeweatherguy · #107 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 9:55 pm

jabman98 wrote:
HouTXmetro wrote:WHat about the areas hit hard today in southeast Houston? Are we a main target for tonight? I live along the Clear Creek Watershed and it the Bayou flooded the entire area earlier.

Since late afternoon, I've heard the TV mets say that southwest Houston is expected to be more under the gun for this round - SugarLand, Katy, etc. Which is good news for those who have been hit today. Except they also said the situation isn't very certain and everyone needs to be cautious. The low's movements aren't easily predicted by models, apparently.

The NWS and the local mets have changed their minds tonight. according to Cecilia Sinclair, the low is still over N. Harris county (when it was already suppose to be well SW of Houston). This will lead to the key spots being right up through Galveston, Brazoria, Harris and Montgomery counties (again). This was also confirmed by the NWS. It also looks like widespread 2-3" rain totals with some isolated pockets of 5-10"+ totals will be in the works again tonight.

Johnny · #108 Postby **Johnny** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 9:55 pm

Yep, a good steady light rain here in central Montgomery County right now. The radar is really starting to light up with light to moderate rain. Most of the areas of precip. seem to be growing in strength and size. Unfortunately it seems that a bad scenario might be in the works.

Yankeegirl · #109 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 9:56 pm

So I guess here in the Katy area we are going to get more rain later on tonight? We didnt get any rain here all afternoon... and I think the rain stopped here around 9 am... Im not going to complain, we need the rain here...

Extremeweatherguy · #110 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 9:57 pm

Johnny wrote:Yep, a good steady light rain here in central Montgomery County right now. The radar is really starting to light up with light to moderate rain. Most of the areas of precip. seem to be growing in strength and size. Unfortunately it seems that a bad scenario might be in the works.

It looks to be exploding into a very dangerous situation on radar. This is right in line with the 8:15pm NWS forecast discussion.

#111 Postby **jasons2k** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 9:57 pm

Just watched Cecilia Sinclair on Fox. At the top of the news @ 9, she said she was very concerned with areas along and just east of 45 - the same areas that got it this morning.

Then later, during the weather portion, she said a new band is forming in Eastern Harris county up to E. Montgomery county and that we are "in trouble."

Looking at the radar it looks like the case. The rain has been slowly increasing here over the last 20 minutes or so here.

Extremeweatherguy · #112 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 9:58 pm

Yankeegirl wrote:So I guess here in the Katy area we are going to get more rain later on tonight? We didnt get any rain here all afternoon... and I think the rain stopped here around 9 am... Im not going to complain, we need the rain here...

yes, you guys will probably get some good rains (1-3"+), but looking at the latest information, the worst of it may miss you guys.

stormtruth · #113 Postby **stormtruth** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 9:58 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:WHat about the areas hit hard today in southeast Houston? Are we a main target for tonight? I live along the Clear Creek Watershed and it the Bayou flooded the entire area earlier.

This Chron.com article says the Southwest side of Houston will probably get the most rain but they don't know for sure.
http://chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/3982798.html

"The ground is saturated and the bayous are full,'' Eckels said. "If we get another 12 inches tonight, we're going to have problems.''

Although it's difficult to predict, Read said the areas with highest rainfall tonight could be Brazoria, Matagorda, Jackson and other counties to the southwest of Houston.

#114 Postby **jasons2k** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 9:59 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
jabman98 wrote:
HouTXmetro wrote:WHat about the areas hit hard today in southeast Houston? Are we a main target for tonight? I live along the Clear Creek Watershed and it the Bayou flooded the entire area earlier.

Since late afternoon, I've heard the TV mets say that southwest Houston is expected to be more under the gun for this round - SugarLand, Katy, etc. Which is good news for those who have been hit today. Except they also said the situation isn't very certain and everyone needs to be cautious. The low's movements aren't easily predicted by models, apparently.
The NWS and the local mets have changed their minds tonight. according to Cecilia Sinclair, the low is still over N. Harris county (when it was already suppose to be well SW of Houston). This will lead to the key spots being right up through Galveston, Brazoria, Harris and Montgomery counties (again). This was also confirmed by the NWS. It also looks like widespread 2-3" rain totals with some isolated pockets of 5-10"+ totals will be in the works again tonight.

Both times she showed it, she correctly pinpointed the center over central Montgomery county - not Harris. The "L" was right on Conroe.

HouTXmetro · #115 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 9:59 pm

OMG, the rain on radar is coming from nowhere :eek:

Extremeweatherguy · #116 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 9:59 pm

jschlitz wrote:Just watched Cecilia Sinclair on Fox. At the top of the news @ 9, she said she was very concerned with areas along and just east of 45 - the same areas that got it this morning.

Then later, during the weather portion, she said a new band is forming in Eastern Harris county up to E. Montgomery county and that we are "in trouble."

Looking at the radar it looks like the case. The rain has been slowly increasing here over the last 20 minutes or so here.

yeah, this is probably going to get serious real quickly. The only thing I feel will be different is instead of eastern Harris (like she showed), I think the worst will be up central Harris (as the low *slowly* drifts west tonight).

Yankeegirl · #117 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 10:01 pm

No rain here yet....

Extremeweatherguy · #118 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 10:02 pm

jschlitz wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:
jabman98 wrote:
HouTXmetro wrote:WHat about the areas hit hard today in southeast Houston? Are we a main target for tonight? I live along the Clear Creek Watershed and it the Bayou flooded the entire area earlier.

Since late afternoon, I've heard the TV mets say that southwest Houston is expected to be more under the gun for this round - SugarLand, Katy, etc. Which is good news for those who have been hit today. Except they also said the situation isn't very certain and everyone needs to be cautious. The low's movements aren't easily predicted by models, apparently.
The NWS and the local mets have changed their minds tonight. according to Cecilia Sinclair, the low is still over N. Harris county (when it was already suppose to be well SW of Houston). This will lead to the key spots being right up through Galveston, Brazoria, Harris and Montgomery counties (again). This was also confirmed by the NWS. It also looks like widespread 2-3" rain totals with some isolated pockets of 5-10"+ totals will be in the works again tonight.

Both times she showed it, she correctly pinpointed the center over central Montgomery county - not Harris. The "L" was right on Conroe.

looking at the latest radar loop, I would highly doubt it is as far north as conroe. I think she was just showing a "general" location. The low is actually most likely on the Harris/Montgomery line. Remember, this low is still somewhat broad.

#119 Postby **jasons2k** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 10:03 pm

Well, Dr. Frank just said the low was to the west and circled near Sealy on the map. Strange.

Extremeweatherguy · #120 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 10:04 pm

jschlitz wrote:Well, Dr. Frank just said the low was to the west and circled near Sealy on the map. Strange.

yeah, that has to be wrong. I just looked at the latest Flood watch (issued at about 9:30pm) from the NWS and they are saying it is in eastern Montgomery county.

Southeast, Texas Under the Gun Tonight....

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