SE TX weather thread #3 - windy and cooler Wednesday

#101 Postby **jasons2k** » Mon Oct 23, 2006 11:23 am

I'm not very encouraged by the long-term setup for this winter. Overall, it's looking wet and chilly. Call me crazy but that gets old after awhile. I like the cool weather when it first arrives - it's a pleasant change- but before long I get cabin fever. Unfortuantely I might have it before Thanksgiving this year. I can only take so many days of cold & wet before I'm clamoring for Spring.

When I got onto the garage elevator this morning and everyone on there was shivering with that red, teary-eyed look, I thought to myself 'maybe I should move back to Tampa.' It's only October and my face is already chapped.

JenBayles · #102 Postby **JenBayles** » Mon Oct 23, 2006 12:08 pm

We were at the Hog Stop Inn in Fredericksburg this past weekend. While our friend Dean's bike was broken down west of Hunt, TX (broken throttle cable) we roasted in nearly 90 degree heat. (Pics from trip are here http://community.webshots.com/album/555048912dxRlbe if anyone's interested - one of the most beautiful spots in the Hill Country, and perfect if you have to break down somewhere...) The front went through about 9:00 that evening, and it was COLD a couple hours later. I forgot what it was like to look up in the sky at night and actually see the milky way. The stars seemed close enough to touch.

I was so grateful to be riding the "chase truck" on this trip - I've paid my dues riding in rain, cold, sleet, heat, etc., so don't mind a bit being on the support end of road trips these days. Good thing we had the truck since we had to haul Dean's Road King back to Houston. Howling wind and 40 degree temps translate to about 20 degrees on a motorcycle.

#103 Postby **jasons2k** » Mon Oct 23, 2006 12:43 pm

Thanks for the pics - I love that part of Texas

JenBayles · #104 Postby **JenBayles** » Mon Oct 23, 2006 2:44 pm

Me too schlitz! What a place to experience mechanical problems. We really didn't mind having our ride plans blow up in our faces since we were in such a pretty spot. The Hog Stop Inn is a lovely place to stay outside Fredericksburg even if you're not a biker. They have about 7 little cabins that are actually manufactured homes, all tucked back in a wooded area off 290. The smaller cabins are like $75 a night and a western breakfast is served at Der Peach Garden on the highway from 8 - 10:00 a.m. Michael's quite the cook as well!

Johnny · #105 Postby **Johnny** » Mon Oct 23, 2006 3:18 pm

Great pics Jen. My family and I are heading back to Wimberley a week before Christmas. I've have been hunting and vacationing in the hill country since I was a kid. I absolutely love it out that way.

Call me crazy but that gets old after awhile. I like the cool weather when it first arrives - it's a pleasant change- but before long I get cabin fever. Unfortuantely I might have it before Thanksgiving this year. I can only take so many days of cold & wet before I'm clamoring for Spring.

I'm the same way but only after Christmas. I love the cold air for the hunting and holiday season. After Christmas you can have the cold air. January and February are my worst months of the year!!!

Johnny · #106 Postby **Johnny** » Mon Oct 23, 2006 3:18 pm

EWG, how about a heads up on the front coming in on Thursday. How cold is it looking? I plan on taking the family camping this weekend.

Extremeweatherguy · #107 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Oct 23, 2006 4:28 pm

Johnny wrote:EWG, how about a heads up on the front coming in on Thursday. How cold is it looking? I plan on taking the family camping this weekend.

Here is what the NWS is forecasting behind the front and next weekend:

Thursday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 78.

Thursday Night: Clear, with a low around 55.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 77.

Friday Night: Clear, with a low around 50.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 78.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 45.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 79.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 42.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 73.

The daytime temps. look beautiful, but at night the lows look downright chilly! Overall though, good camping weather.

BTW: Up in your area, the low temps. may even be a bit colder this weekend.

Extremeweatherguy · #108 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Oct 23, 2006 4:29 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
251 PM CDT MON OCT 23 2006

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT EAST TONGIHT AND ALLOW ONSHORE
WINDS TO RETURN TO THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STILL BE ON THE
COOL SIDE AS WINDS DECOUPLE UNDER CLEAR SKIES. LOWS NEAR THE COAST
MAY WARM A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT. ON TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE A SLOW
RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK S/WV
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SINCE MOISTURE WILL STILL BE RATHER
MEAGER...HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
NORTH AND WEST FOR NOW. MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ON
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
850 MB WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MODEL
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT OF A CAP BUILDING ESPECIALLY SOUTH HALF
AND NEAR THE COAST. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO
APPROACH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. THINK
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH
CLOSER TO THE S/WV AND AWAY FROM THE BUILDING CAP. PW`S EXCEED 2.0
INCHES WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION AND SE TX WILL LIE IN A RIGHT REAR QUAD. THINK
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR WED NITE INTO THURSDAY. MOISTURE FROM
EASTERN PACIFIC STORM PAUL WILL BE SURGING TOWARD SE TX ON
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THIS MOISTURE WILL NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER THE FROPA...THUS FOCUSING MOST OF THE HEAVIER
RAINS OVER THE GULF.

HAVE RECEIVED MANY CALLS INQUIRING ABOUT HEAVY RAIN FOR WED/THU.
ALTHO PRECIP IS LIKELY...DO NOT THINK EXCESSIVE RAIN IS LIKELY.
UNLIKE LAST MONDAY`S EVENT...PW`S ARE APPROACING 2.1 INCHES NOT
2.7. LOW LEVEL JET IS MUCH WEAKER 35 KTS VS 65 KTS. THERE IS NOT A
SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY (WARM FRONT) AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS
CONSIDERABLY WEAKER. STORM MOTION IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN
20 AND 25 KNOTS AND THE LACK OF WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
SHOULD PRECLUDE TRAINING STORMS. THE UPCOMING SYSTEM WILL BE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING. THE CAN AND UKMET SUPPORT THE PROGRESSIVE GFS WHILE THE
ECMWF AND NOGAPS ARE A BIT SLOWER.

NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS GREAT WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND OODLES OF DRY AIR. WILL MANTAIN DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH NEXT MONDAY AS THE GFS FORECASTS A SECONDARY SURGE OF
COOLER AIR ENTERING THE AREA ON SUNDAY. ECMWF HOLDS BACK ON THE
SECOND COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER
GFS.

Johnny · #109 Postby **Johnny** » Mon Oct 23, 2006 10:34 pm

Thanks EWG!

Extremeweatherguy · #110 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Oct 24, 2006 6:03 am

Johnny wrote:Thanks EWG!

well, as of this morning things have changed. They have warmed up the forecast significantly. At this point, I guess we should just wait and see how the forecast changes over the next few days.

Extremeweatherguy · #111 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Oct 24, 2006 7:02 am

Severe weather possible Thursday:

JenBayles · #112 Postby **JenBayles** » Tue Oct 24, 2006 10:52 am

Hey Johnny - I'm exactly the same way! Love the cold and crappy weather for the holidays, but as of January 2, I'm ready for summer. Dave and I just loathe January and February. Everything brown and dead - not even snow to make it attractive.

We're going camping at Pedernales State Park the weekend of Nov. 9. First time taking the dogs with us, so that should be interesting!

Yankeegirl · #113 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Tue Oct 24, 2006 1:31 pm

well its clouding up here, i guess thats a sign of things to come?

JenBayles · #114 Postby **JenBayles** » Tue Oct 24, 2006 3:53 pm

Isn't it great Yankee? I'm loving this kind of gloomy cool weather. Of course, no doubt we'll be griping about it in a couple of months, but what a welcome change.

Johnny · #115 Postby **Johnny** » Tue Oct 24, 2006 4:20 pm

Hey Jen, I actually visited Pedernales State Park for the first time this past summer while my family and I were staying in Wimberley. It's way off teh beaten path with wildlife around every corner. We spent the day swimming in the river. It's beautiful out there. We also went to Hamilton Pool which was nice but a little crowded for my taste. I like my space.lol Have fun and take pics!

Hey EWG, how does Halloween look? Las year we had a weak cool front blow in right before trick or treating time.

Extremeweatherguy · #116 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Oct 24, 2006 4:41 pm

Johnny wrote:Hey Jen, I actually visited Pedernales State Park for the first time this past summer while my family and I were staying in Wimberley. It's way off teh beaten path with wildlife around every corner. We spent the day swimming in the river. It's beautiful out there. We also went to Hamilton Pool which was nice but a little crowded for my taste. I like my space.lol Have fun and take pics!

Hey EWG, how does Halloween look? Las year we had a weak cool front blow in right before trick or treating time.

As of right now it looks like (according to the afternoon NWS forecast) highs will be in the middle 70s with mostly cloudy skies on Halloween day with a 20% chance of rain. Overnight lows should be in the 50s on Halloween night with mostly cloudy skies.

However, I am not sure I agree with this NWS forecast. I think it has a chance of being colder than this. We will have to watch how the forecast changes in coming days..

Extremeweatherguy · #117 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Oct 24, 2006 5:02 pm

Check out the latest weather.com forecast for Friday:

http://www.weather.com/outlook/driving/ ... 9?dayNum=3
(high - 71F, low - 46F..windy)

This is a lot colder than the NWS forecast and I hope they end up being more accurate!

Extremeweatherguy · #118 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Oct 24, 2006 5:12 pm

I just got a chance to watch JBs videos today, and he said that he thinks the "coldest airmass of the season" (from the arctic) is coming down the plains next week. Just thought I would give everyone a heads up.

I am sure we will hear more of this in the next few days, and eventually the NWS should latch on.

BTW, the latest 18Z GFS shows this quite well. Take a look:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _216.shtml
^^Next Thursday^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _228.shtml
^^Next Fri. morning^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _252.shtml
^^Next Saturday morning is well into the 30s/40s with a VERY strong high in the central plains^^

rainshine · #119 Postby **rainshine** » Tue Oct 24, 2006 8:52 pm

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
352 PM CDT TUE OCT 24 2006

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-250700-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
352 PM CDT TUE OCT 24 2006

...MORE RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY...

ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. RAINFALL TOTALS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES.
THE HEAVIEST RAINS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THIS NEXT COLD FRONT AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY.

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND THE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE TO OUR REGION WILL PROVIDE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TO ADD INSULT TO
INJURY...THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PAUL TREKKING INTO OLD MEXICO
WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO THE MIX.

AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE AREA RIVER BASINS IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN RIVERS AT PRESENT LEVELS OR SLIGHT RISES. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 3 OR MORE INCHES COULD CAUSE LARGER RISES ON AREA
RIVERS. HOWEVER...STAGES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE HISTORICAL LEVELS
REACHED LAST WEEK.

RUNOFF DUE TO SATURATED GROUNDS AREA WIDE WILL ALSO MAKE FLASH
FLOODING A LIKELIHOOD. IF YOU ARE IN A LOCATION THAT RECEIVES
3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME...FLASH FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED.

IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL...SEVERE WEATHER IS ALSO POSSIBLE. DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD BE EXPECTED LATE
THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

#120 Postby **Portastorm** » Tue Oct 24, 2006 9:33 pm

Yeah gang, the 12z Euro run also confirms comments from JB as well as EWG's reference to the GFS 18z run. A major blast of arctic air is headed down the front range of the Rockies by early next week.

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.ecmwf850t.html

It's still a ways out and we all know how this could change. Nevertheless, it's something worth watching.

SE TX weather thread #3 - windy and cooler Wednesday

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