Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

We reached the 1000 posts of the tent

Congrats to all.

Code: Select all

000
ASCA42 TJSJ 301910
RWRPR
PUERTO RICO/U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HOURLY WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST THU JUL 30 2009

PRZ001-004-302000-
PUERTO RICO

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
SAN JUAN LMM   MOSUNNY   88  75  66 NE18      30.00F HX  97
AGUADILLA      MOSUNNY   86  75  70 NE23G31   30.00F HX  95
$$



[Gustywind]

We reached the 1000 posts of the tent

Congrats to all.

Code: Select all

000
ASCA42 TJSJ 301910
RWRPR
PUERTO RICO/U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HOURLY WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST THU JUL 30 2009

PRZ001-004-302000-
PUERTO RICO

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
SAN JUAN LMM   MOSUNNY   88  75  66 NE18      30.00F HX  97
AGUADILLA      MOSUNNY   86  75  70 NE23G31   30.00F HX  95
$$



YES WE...DO IT in route for the 2000 posts! Congratulations or "félicitations" in french

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
444 PM AST THU JUL 30 2009

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE PASSING SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO EXIT THE REGIONAL WATERS TONIGHT/EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AFTERWARD...A DRYING TREND WILL TAKE OVER THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PULSES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTING TOWARD THE ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS.

A MODERATE AFRICAN DUST EPISODE WILL ENTER THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROPICAL
WAVE LOCATED NEAR 36/37 WEST. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON SUNDAY AND EXPECTED TO EXIT THE
DISCUSSION AREA ON MONDAY.

OTHER THAN THOSE WAVES MENTIONED ABOVE...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FIVE TO SEVEN DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL LOCAL TAF SITES FOR
THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.

[expat2carib]

Hi Gusty!

It's you that posted the milestone. Keep on going strong. Appreciated.

I'm more a reader and will post when I see something interesting here on the island.

Keep on going strong my friends. The drink is on me

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
949 PM AST THU JUL 30 2009

&&

.SYNOPSIS...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DRIER AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SOME HAZE ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH SAT. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH
THE AREA SUN NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FCST TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE SHOWERS THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED AS TIGHT GRADIENT AND CLD CVR HAVE NOT
ALLOWED FOR LAND BREEZE TO SET UP. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT SHOWERS
SHOULD SHIFT MORE OFF THE NORTH COAST.

FOR TOMORROW...MORE SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ALONG WITH SOME HAZE/DUST
WILL MOVING IN FURTHER LIMITING SHRA ACTIVITY. STILL AN ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA OVER MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY STILL POSSIBLE. HAZE AND/OR
DUST SHOULD NOT BE ANYWHERE NEAR PAST EPISODES THIS SUMMER. SATURDAY
LOOKS BONE DRY WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS AND STRONG CAP

NEXT TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 40W THIS EVENING LACKS ANY SIG DEEP
CONVECTION AS IT IS SURROUNDED BY SAL. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
PASS ACROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT THIS WAVE TO BE A
SIG RAINFALL PRODUCER AS WE REMAIN UNDER AN INACTIVE/DOWNWARD
MOTION PHASE OF THE MJO.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE
PASSING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TKPK...TNCM...TIST...AND TJSJ.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW SCA BUT SEAS REMAIN HAZARDOUS
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND OFFSHORE ATLC WATERS. SEAS WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.


Good night to all.

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 310223
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1023 PM AST THU JUL 30 2009

SKIES VARIED FROM CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION SO FAR THIS
EVENING. WINDS HAVE BEEN FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AND THE TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE EVENING WERE
MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 80S.

MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND BREEZE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING...WITH JUST A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. FOR FRIDAY...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR
LESS AND SEAS OF 7 FEET OR LESS THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW MORNING. SMALL
BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
ABATE TOMORROW.

$$

[Gustywind]

Hi Gusty!

It's you that posted the milestone. Keep on going strong. Appreciated.

I'm more a reader and will post when I see something interesting here on the island.

Keep on going strong my friends. The drink is on me

Hi expat2carib! Ohh i appreciate this attention, you're very nice and have a strong sense of humour...that's fantastic! I tkink that we should enjoy ourselves on another thread don't you?
The "carib family" is glad to see you in the "team" I share you another cup but if you drink take the bed not the road !
Good night to all!

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all the Caribbean friends.Hazy day with little rain.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
536 AM AST FRI JUL 31 2009

.DISCUSSION...AT UPPER LEVELS...TUTT WILL REMAIN NEARBY BUT
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH RELATIVELY FEEBLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED LOCALLY.
AT MID LEVELS...RIDGE REMAINS ELONGATED WELL TO OUR NORTH...
LEAVING FA IN MAINLY EASTERLIES UP THROUGH AT LEAST 20K FEET. AT
LOW LEVELS...TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT OCCASIONAL BANDS AND
PATCHES OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...IN GENERAL LOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
DRY AND WITH SOME SAL INDUCED DUST ACROSS THE FA TODAY WITH A
BREAK TONIGHT AND THEN MORE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
SO...EXPECT LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL
EFFECTS AND FAIRLY LIGHT UPPER LEVEL WINDS...TO PRODUCE SOME
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS EACH AFTERNOON TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS OR RAINFALL. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG 41
WEST EARLY THIS MORNING...REMAINS FAIRLY WELL DEFINED ALBEIT
SURROUNDED BY SAL AND MAINLY DEVOID OF CONVECTION. THIS WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS
EXPECTED...BUT AGAIN NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA...MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 17Z AND
21Z.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 11 TO 21 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 7 FEET
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN OFF SHORE
WATERS AND THE MONA PASSAGE FOR TODAY AND THERE IS A PRECAUTIONARY
STATEMENT FOR MOST OF REMAINING ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS AND
THE ANEGADA PASSAGE.

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 310905
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
505 AM AST FRI JUL 31 2009

SKIES VARIED FROM CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A FEW SHOWERS AFFECTED THE LOCAL ISLANDS. WINDS WERE FROM
THE EAST AT AROUND 10 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR SHOWERS.

TODAY...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING.
HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR
LESS AND SEAS OF 7 FEET OR LESS THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW MORNING.
SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN
TO ABATE TOMORROW.

$$

[Gustywind]

Hi my carib friends, a nice and hazy day is pointing at the horizon let's enjoy it as usual


Wayne Verno, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Jul. 31, 2009 4:44 am ET
The remainder of the Atlantic remains quiet.

It appears as if July will pass without a tropical cyclone forming in the Atlantic basin. The last year an Atlantic hurricane season started without a depression forming until August was 1992. But that turned out to be Hurricane Andrew.

[Gustywind]

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/hurri ... om=hp_news
We should have to wait at least the next 72 H to see another "twve guest" reaching the Lesser Antilles, here is the latest from the NHC Tropical Discussion:
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W TO THE SOUTH OF 22N
MOVING WEST ABOUT 20 KT. THE POSITION WAS MOVED A BIT MORE TO
THE WEST IN ORDER TO AGREE MORE WITH THE SHORTWAVE INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W TO THE SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST ABOUT 20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 14N
TO 22N BETWEEN 68W AND 74W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 14N17W TO 11N30W TO 11N41W 10N50W
TO TRINIDAD/EXTREME NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST
OF AFRICA FROM 8.5N TO 14.5N...AND WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 12N23W 9N30W 9N42W 7N48W 8N55W...AND FROM COASTAL
VENEZUELA TO 13N BETWEEN 63W AND 66W.
$$
MT

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 311529 CCA
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1128 AM AST FRI JUL 31 2009

SKIES WERE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS
AFFECTED THE LOCAL ISLANDS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION RECORDED. WINDS WERE FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR COASTAL AREAS.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY AFFECTING THE
ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 10
TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ALONG THE ISLAND SHORES.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR
LESS AND SEAS OF 7 FEET OR LESS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CARIBBEAN OFF SHORE
WATERS AS WELL AS THE ADJACENT MONA PASSAGE UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS
EVENING. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST
OF THE REMAINING ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS AT LEAST THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

$$
Fair weather for the islands feeling hot ho hot...

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 311555 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1155 AM AST FRI JUL 31 2009

.UPDATE...
THE 12Z FRIDAY CIMMS SAHARAN AIR LAYER TRACKING PRODUCT SHOWS A
SIGNIFICANT AREA OF AFRICAN DUST THAT COVERS MOST OF THE LOCAL
AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OF THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL
WATERS JUST EAST NORTHEAST OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO.
HOWEVER...SAL/AFRICAN DUST IS MORE NOTICEABLE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA PER LATEST VISIBLE IMAGES. THIS WILL LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

NEXT TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED LATE THIS MORNING NEAR 43/44 WEST IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY MORNING TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY OVER PUERTO RICO. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN INCREASE OF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA AS THE WAVE PASSES BY...WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE ISLANDS AND
COASTAL WATERS...BUT SO FAR...IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE
SHOWER/CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
FOR THAT PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS
ALL LOCAL TAF SITES...WITH SOME PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AS SHOWER MOVE BY TJMZ FROM 18Z TO 21Z THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

[Gustywind]

We could sleep under a coconut,...why not?
000
ABNT20 KNHC 311731
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Next twave guest :
000
AXNT20 KNHC 311732
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W TO THE SOUTH OF 24N
MOVING WEST AT 25 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED
WINDS INDICATE A BROAD LOW TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS WAVE ALSO EXHIBITS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST IS NE OF
THE WAVE...AND ALSO W OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS.

Have a nice week-end to all .

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
251 PM AST FRI JUL 31 2009

PRC023-067-079-093-097-121-125-153-312145-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0199.090731T1851Z-090731T2145Z/
/00000.N..000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HORMIGUEROS PR-MARICAO PR-SABANA GRANDE PR-SAN GERMAN PR-YAUCO PR-
CABO ROJO PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-LAJAS PR-
251 PM AST FRI JUL 31 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
HORMIGUEROS...MARICAO...SABANA GRANDE...SAN GERMAN...YAUCO...
CABO ROJO...MAYAGUEZ AND LAJAS

* UNTIL 545 PM AST

* AT 243 PM AST DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING
PARTS OF THE MUNICIPALITIES MENTIONED ABOVE. FOR THE PAST FEW
HOURS...MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AND LIGHTNING...HAVE BEEN DETECTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
PUERTO RICO. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
SOME OF THE AREAS UNDER THIS ADVISORY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
WITHIN THE PAST HOUR...ESTIMATED RADAR RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGED FROM
ONE TO TWO INCHES.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
PARTS OF THE ADVISORY AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
358 PM AST FRI JUL 31 2009

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE
GENERAL ATLANTIC. A WEAK LOW NORTHEAST OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
WILL DRIFT WEST DURING THE WEEKEND AND THEN SOUTH WITH A TROUGH
DIGGING TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA ON THURSDAY. LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD HIGH PRESSURE IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC COMBINES WITH A
SHARP ELONGATED TROUGH ALONG THE OFFSHORE WATERS OFF THE U.S. EASTERN
SEABOARD TO BRING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE ARCHES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WITH AN INTERVENING LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO.
THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES WEST THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN CREATES A
NORTH-SOUTH TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE
LOCAL AREA THAT MOVES OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. ALSO SEVERAL TROUGHS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC MOVE
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA...ONE ON MONDAY AND THE SECOND ON THURSDAY.
AT THIS TIME THE LATTER TROUGH APPEARS WEAKER.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A TROPICAL WAVE HINDERED BY EXTENSIVE AFRICAN
DUST WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A SECOND WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STREAMERS OFF THE ISLANDS EAST OF PUERTO RICO LEFT
MANY AREAS FROM CABO SAN JUAN TO HORMIGUEROS WET IN THE LAST 24
HOURS...NOT MANY OTHER AREAS RECEIVED RAIN ALTHOUGH TRACES OF RAIN
WERE MEASURED IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE HEAVIEST RAINS SO
FAR APPEARED TO BE IN THE MUNICIPALITY OF SAN GERMAN. TROPICAL
WAVES MOVING TOWARD THE AREA ARE BEING HINDERED BY EXTENSIVE
AFRICAN DUST AND MODEL SOLUTIONS CHANGE FROM RUN-TO-RUN WITH
RESPECT TO THE EXACT SHAPE OF THE RAIN BANDS AROUND THEM...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ALTHOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT MAY BE A BIT
DRIER. THE FOREGOING IS SUBJECT TO THE USUAL DIURNAL PATTERN.
LITTLE VARIATION IN TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH EXCEPTION OF THE COOLING OF TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGES
WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SATURDAY MORNING. SOME LINGERING AFTERNOON
SHOWERS COULD BE WITHIN THE VICINITY OF TJMZ FROM 31/19Z TO 31/21Z...BUT
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 21Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC WILL NOT VARY AS MUCH AS
IN THE PAST. SEAS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
AGAIN ON 3/4 AUGUST AND SUBSIDE THEREAFTER FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE CARIBBEAN SEAS WILL REMAIN CHOPPY BUT
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AT LEAST UNTIL 7 AUGUST
ACCORDING TO CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE LOW IN SAN JUAN WAS 80 DEGREES THIS MORNING AND IS
UNLIKELY TO FALL LOWER BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THIS WOULD TIE THE RECORD
WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR THE DATE SET IN 1980 AND 1978.

[cycloneye]

This is the Strong wave that is going to emerge West Africa that some models are latching to for some type of development.Less watch what will occur with this as we are entering the most active period of the hurricane season.

This image updates every half an hour.Click the symbol to see a closeup.

[expat2carib]

Anybody knows what time it is?

I just delivered my watch to my bookie.

August 8th, Ana

[cycloneye]

Here are t5he two waves that are east of us.The farthest east one was introduced at this 8 PM EDT discussion.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE SURFACE ANALYSIS OVER THE
TROPICAL E ATLC AS OF 31/1800 UTC. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
24W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. UPPER AIR DATA FROM DAKAR
SENEGAL NEAR 15N18W INDICATE THAT THE ANOMALOUS WINDS BELOW 700
MB HAD A NORTHERLY COMPONENT PRIOR TO 31/0000 UTC...AND THEN
ATTAINED A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AFTER 31/0000 UTC...SUGGESTING
THAT THE WAVE LIKELY PASSED DAKAR AROUND 31/0000 UTC. THIS
TROPICAL WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE BASED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM
CIMSS. SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS INDICATE CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN
THE 800-600 MB FLOW NEAR THIS WAVE...AND RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A LOW/MID-LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 13N24W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 24W-26W.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC IS ALONG 48W/49W S OF 25N
MOVING W 25-30 KT. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS
WAVE COINCIDES WITH AN INVERTED-V PATTERN IN THE COVERAGE OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS. SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS INDICATE CYCLONIC
CURVATURE IN THE FLOW WITHIN THE 950-800 MB LAYER IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS WAVE. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BASED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY FROM CIMSS. LOW/MID-LEVEL DRY SAHARAN AIR IS INHIBITING
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WAVE. ACROSS
THE S PORTIONS OF THE WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 42W-50W...WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BY LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE ITCZ.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1032 PM AST FRI JUL 31 2009

.SYNOPSIS...MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 50W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A 2158Z QUIKSCAT PASS ALONG WITH TSJU VWP AND 00Z
JSJ RAOB SHOW ENE WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN
IN THE LOWEST 2KFT. SOUNDING SHOWS THAT MOISTURE IS SHALLOW AND
EXTENDS UP TO ABOUT 800 MB WHERE IS CAPPED BY A STRONG INVERSION.
THIS SCENARIO DOES NOT APPEAR THAT IT WILL CHANGE IN THE NEXT 12
HRS OR SO. THEREFORE ANTICIPATING SCT PASSING SHOWERS TO AFFECT
THE NORTHEAST COAST THROUGH MID MORNING TOMORROW.

CONVECTION TOMORROW MAY BE MORE CONFINED TO THE SW PART OF THE
ISLAND THAN THE NW GIVEN THE PREVAILING ENE WINDS. CURR FCST FOR
TOMORROW CALLS FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP MORE IN THE NW. HAVE LEFT
FCST AS IS FOR TOMORROW BUT IT MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED. GIVEN LIMITED
MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF A STRONG MID LVL CAP (ALREADY EVIDENT ON
00Z JSJ SOUNDING) ANY SHOWERS WILL LIKELY NOT PRODUCE ANY
LIGHTNING. IN ANY CASE...CONVECTION IF ANY SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED
DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE.

TROP ATLC CONTINUES TO BE RATHER QUIET. LATEST 200 MB VELOCITY
ANOMALIES FROM THE GFS AND CLIMATE FCST SYSTEM (CFS) AS SEEN ON
THE CPC WEB SITE SHOW UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
ATLC BASIN LASTING THROUGH AUGUST 13 WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING
MARGINALLY FVRBL FOR TC FORMATION DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
MONTH BUT MAINLY OVR THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND NOT OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLC. GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY SIG AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS
THE ATLC AND THE UNFAVORABLE UPPER LVL CONDITIONS WE LIKELY WONT
SEE ANYTHING WITH TC POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.

NEXT TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 50W IS FCST TO CROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT.
HOWEVER...DEEP CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE REMAINS CONFINED TO THE
ITCZ. SO DOUBT THIS WAVE WILL BRING ANYTHING MORE THAT WHAT THE
PREVIOUS ONE DID.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE
PASSING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TKPK...TNCM...TIST...AND TJSJ.

&&

.MARINE...A 2158Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOW ENE WINDS OF 15-20KT ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS. SEAS REMAIN MARGINALLY SAFE FOR SMALL CRAFT
OPERATORS. EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENTS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SVRL
MARINE ZONES.