Florida Weather

[NDG]

Forecasted lows for the next couple of mornings, typical when the NAO is neutral or positive in which there's not much presentation of the coldest air down the peninsula, back to the 80s by the middle of the week.

[northjaxpro]

I will take any kind of a cool down right now, albeit it will be brief. This Fall has been ridiculously warm, the warmest November ever on record to this point here in Jacksonville and most locales I would imagine.

May see the first frost on Tuesday morning at my locale as winds are forecast to become light by that time and radiational cooling should be maximized.

[AdamFirst]

Huge rain right now at the Dolphins game. Tornado-warned storm up in Broward County an hour before the game.

[AdamFirst]

Not as much rain as previously forecasted for South Florida.

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS
ALREADY FROM NAPLES TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN.
HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN FROM NW TO SE. LOOKS LIKE ACTIVITY WILL BE
COMING TO AN END EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT YESTERDAY. SOME
SHOWERS LAG BEHIND OFF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...BUT THEY ARE
ISOLATED AND MOSTLY LIGHT. LOOKING LIKE MOST OF THE ROBUST
ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. /GREGORIA

[TheStormExpert]

Better late than never!

...FALL, SOUTH FLORIDA STYLE, FINALLY ARRIVES!...

BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL POUR INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS WILL BE A VERY NOTICEABLE CHANGE. LOWS WILL FALL
INTO THE 60S...EVEN 50S WEST OF THE LAKE! DEWPOINTS WILL LOWER
OVERNIGHT INTO THE LOWER-MID 60S THEN INTO THE 50S ON MONDAY.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. SIMILAR
READINGS ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY BEFORE TEMPS GRADUALLY WARM
MID-LATE WEEK ALONG WITH SLOW DEWPOINT RECOVERY. HOWEVER,
DEWPOINTS NEVER RETURN TO UNCOMFORTABLE LEVELS...AND WITH A STRONG
NORTHEAST WIND THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...IT WILL BE A REFRESHING
CHANGE FOR MANY.

WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH WITH A WINDY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW PREVAILING. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PICKED UP OFF THE WARM GULF STREAM IS EXPECTED TO
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO, PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AT
TIMES, TO MOVE ONSHORE THE ATLANTIC COAST ON THE FRESH BREEZE.
HOWEVER, SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING MOST OF
THE TIME. TEMPS/HUMIDITY RISE SLOWLY, BUT REMAIN COMFORTABLE.
FALL, SOUTH FLORIDA STYLE, HAS FINALLY ARRIVED!

[northjaxpro]

Finally, Fall weather has arrived this morning!!! It is 37.8 degrees at 6:25 a.m. Actually, it has gotten a bit colder than anticipated this morning as the initial forecast low for Jax was 41 degrees. The north wind blowing at 5-10 mph is is giving a wind chill index right at the freeze mark.

Looking at obs this morning, there are stations across the Panhandle and the typical colder interior spots of the Suwannee River Valley with temps near the freezing mark of 32 degrees. Also, interior areas just northwest of Jacksonville in SE Georigia.

Beautiful sunny, crisp and cool day in store here today with max temp only around 60 degrees today under decent cold air advection and with excellent radiational cooling conditions tonight here, frost should form for the first time this season by tomorrow morning across North Florida. Temps also will be colder tomorrow morning as well with High Pressure moving in closer to the region. Some spots across the normal, colder interior loales across North Florida may touch the freeze mark tomorrow morning.

A gradual moderating trend with temps will start again by Wednesday and we will be back in the lower 70s here by Thanksgiving.

[northjaxpro]

Temp actually dropped another degree, now at 36.7 degrees, which is my lowest reading this morning.

[NDG]

Same thing here, temps dropped a good 3-5 degrees colder than forecasted, talking about a perfect set up for temps to fall rapidly, just before midnight temps were only in the upper 50s and dropped all the way to the mid 40s in my neighborhood, upper 40s on the souther section of the city.

[NDG]

Temps tomorrow along the east coast of peninsula from near St Augustine southward should not be any colder if anything might be warmer than this morning as winds at h925 turn from the east bringing in clouds off the Atlantic.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah NDG the models underplayed the depth of this cold air mass for sure. It ended up being a full 5 degrees colder than forecast at my locale this morning, and I would think most places in the region I bet ended up at least 3-5 degrees colder than what was forecasted.

If the wind goes light to calm at my locale by tomorrow morning, frost and temps in the lower 30s are quite possible.

[psyclone]

50 here this morning! absolutely fantastic. I've long contended that some of the best cold season weather is the rebound in the wake of a cold snap as it pairs cool, crisp nights with warm, sunny days. this will coincide perfectly with Thanksgiving this year.

[TheStormExpert]

Got down to 61.7°F at my house this morning at 7:27pm according to my weather station which original predictions were for it not to get any cooler than 64°F! With highs in the mid 70's and a cool North wind all day it felt very pleasant outside today! The humidity and dewpoint were very tolerable as well with dewpoints in the upper 50's/lower 60's.

As of right now as I am typing the temperature is 65.1°F and dropping very gradually due to the winds starting to switch around to the Northeast. Still may drop a few degrees at most before we level off.

Will be interested to see if any other cool fronts can manage to successfully clear the FL Peninsula within the next few weeks or so with the PNA heading positive, though the NAO and AO will be very positive which won't help at all.

Update: Now down to 63.5°F at 10:45pm, still awaiting the wind to turn and come in off the water and put a halt to anymore cooling.

[Sanibel]

Feels frigid here. 62* and dropping.

[northjaxpro]

It is amazing how location makes a huge difference. North to northeast winds have stayed up just enough overnight to keep temperatures up from areas along the Saint Johns River and along I-95 east to the coast. Locations just west and northwest of Jax are in the mid-upper 30s.

Temps within the Jacksonville metro area range from 36 degrees at the cold drainage ob on the west end of the city, Cecil Commerce Center, to 57 degrees at Mayport N.A.S. on the coast. Quite a large temp gradient thanks to the onshore flow.

Current temperature at my house at 6 a.m. is 41.4 degrees, with a N/NE wind at about 6 mph. The wind is up just enough to keep the temp from dropping down into the 30s here at my house and prevented frost formation. I am pretty sure that frost developed out at Cecil Commerce and inland locales just west and northwest of Jax where the wind did become very light to calm in those areas.

Temps begin to gradually moderate starting today as onshore flow kicks into gear as the Cold High Pressure axis begins to shift off the Mid Atlantic coast. Max temps here will warm to the mid 60s and min temps tonight in the upper 40s. Some moisture will blow in off the Atlantic the next few days with the Northeast wind flow, so some coastal showers are possible beginning tomorrow into Thanksgiving Day. Temps will be back into the 70s on Turkey Day.

[NDG]

As thought, much warmer temps along the immediate east coast thanks to the winds coming in from the Atlantic waters this morning, even here in Orlando we are a good 3-7 degrees warmer than yesterday.
Now the NAO is going back to the positive stage after briefly going neutral so expect temps back to above average at least for the next 5-7 days.

[rickybobby]

Sounds like a tropical storm outside. I can hear the wind blowing.

[NDG]

What a tropical thanksgiving the FL peninsula is having thanks to a strong easterly flow off the Atlantic with passing tropical showers, blue skies and then a heavy shower out of no where, got to live FL

[northjaxpro]

Another mild/warm week is in store for the peninsula as we remain in a positive NAO phase. Temps will remain above normal here across the peninsula until about Friday as a cold front will pass through the area which should bring us back to about normal for this time of year here in Northeast Florida for early December (highs in upper 60s, lows in the mid to upper 40s is the norm)

GFS long range just beyond 7 days from now looks to bring through next Sunday a stronger surge of colder air as a modified Polar High building down from the Midwest makes it way down into the Deep South. I think there is a decent chance early next week (December 7-8) that we may finally see the first freeze of the season across much of North Florida and the Jax metro area as the NAO may briefly go at least into a neutral phase. We shall see. Just missed out on getting the first freeze during the Nov. 23-24 cool snap, with 36.7 degrees being the lowest reading at my home during that event. Portions of the panhandle did see their first freeze this past week, with Crestview, the notorious cold air drainage spot of the state, measured 31 degrees on Nov 24.

The rest of my fellow S2Kers down the peninsula, especially South Florida, will continue with lower 80s most of the upcoming week, with scattered showers with the onshore flow off and on at times. Rain chances will significantly increase peninsula-wide by late week into next weekend as a cold front moves toward the peninsula, which should draw sufficient moisture and energy with the southwest flow return from the GOM by that time.

[TheStormExpert]

Question, is it possible for the peninsula of Florida(including South Florida) to get a decent cool down with a +PNA, +NAO/+AO, or do the NAO/AO have to negative as well? Always heard that a +PNA helps bring cooler weather to Florida.

[NDG]

Rain and clouds during the El Nino years is what brings us the "cooler" wx if the NAO & AO stay positive, also it all depends on the track of the low pressures that form over the GOM during the active phase of the subtropical jet, a more southern track tend to draw in cooler wx to the peninsula, a more northerly track we stay mostly on the warm section.
Regarding the +PNA, I think we need at least a +NAO or AO to bring noticeable cooler wx down the peninsula.