Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1009 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 12N36W.
THIS LOW HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A CHANCE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[underthwx]

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion


000
AXNT20 KNHC 190002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1009 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 12N36W.
THIS LOW HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A CHANCE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST OF GUINEA
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 10N25W TO A SECOND 1009
MB LOW NEAR 12N36W TO 10N40W TO 9N49W. THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS
BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WITH NO
INTER-TROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 16W-18W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 18W-30W...FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN
30W-40W...AND FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 40W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND RAIN ALONG THE COASTS
OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA MOVING E. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS N
OF 28N BETWEEN 88W-96W. ELSEWHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER S
FLORIDA S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS INLAND OVER S
MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 21N89W TO 15N93W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH.
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH 10-15 KT E-SE
WINDS. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO ADVECT CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL GULF AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE N GULF COAST FROM TEXAS TO
FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 15N83W TO
10N84W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
8N-14N BETWEEN 80W-84W TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF THE SW GULF.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 20N66W TO
14N67W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH
AXIS FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 61W-66W TO INCLUDE PUERTO RICO AND THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO S
COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN
77W-84W. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. EXPECT THE
SURFACE TROUGHS TO DRIFT W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OFF THE COAST OF N FLORIDA
FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 79W-81W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC FROM THE BAHAMAS AT 28N76W TO E CUBA AT 22N78W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N37W TO
27N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS
FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 34W-37W. A 1010 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 17N45W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS N FROM
THE LOW TO 21N43W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-20N
BETWEEN 40W-44W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

FORMOSA





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Hurricane Awareness - How to Prepare - About NHC - Contact Us
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Page last modified: Monday, 19-Sep-2011 00:02:46 UTC

[underthwx]

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion


000
AXNT20 KNHC 190002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1009 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 12N36W.
THIS LOW HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A CHANCE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST OF GUINEA
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 10N25W TO A SECOND 1009
MB LOW NEAR 12N36W TO 10N40W TO 9N49W. THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS
BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WITH NO
INTER-TROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 16W-18W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 18W-30W...FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN
30W-40W...AND FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 40W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND RAIN ALONG THE COASTS
OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA MOVING E. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS N
OF 28N BETWEEN 88W-96W. ELSEWHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER S
FLORIDA S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS INLAND OVER S
MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 21N89W TO 15N93W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH.
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH 10-15 KT E-SE
WINDS. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO ADVECT CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL GULF AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE N GULF COAST FROM TEXAS TO
FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 15N83W TO
10N84W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
8N-14N BETWEEN 80W-84W TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF THE SW GULF.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 20N66W TO
14N67W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH
AXIS FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 61W-66W TO INCLUDE PUERTO RICO AND THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO S
COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN
77W-84W. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. EXPECT THE
SURFACE TROUGHS TO DRIFT W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OFF THE COAST OF N FLORIDA
FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 79W-81W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC FROM THE BAHAMAS AT 28N76W TO E CUBA AT 22N78W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N37W TO
27N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS
FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 34W-37W. A 1010 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 17N45W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS N FROM
THE LOW TO 21N43W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-20N
BETWEEN 40W-44W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

FORMOSA





Quick Navigation Links:
NHC Active Storms - Atlantic and E Pacific Marine - Storm Archives
Hurricane Awareness - How to Prepare - About NHC - Contact Us
NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 19-Sep-2011 00:02:46 UTC

[Gustywind]

Loop of the tropical activity

[underthwx]

Caribbean Sea Offshore Waters Forecast


000
FZNT23 KNHC 182033
OFFNT3

ATLC/CARIBBEAN OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE SW AND TROPICAL
N ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN SEA
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W...THE SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 65W
INCLUDING BAHAMAS...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

AMZ089-190330-
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL MOVE
TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MON. ANOTHER TROUGH ALONG THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TONIGHT. A THIRD
TROUGH IN THE NE CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
MON NIGHT AND TUE THEN THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. 1009 MB LOW PRES IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TROPICAL N ATLC THU AND INTO THE E CARIBBEAN FRI.

$$
AMZ082-190330-
NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 75W
530 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2011

.TONIGHT...S OF 18N W OF 85W E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT
DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE. ELSEWHERE NE TO E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT.
SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS W OF 80W.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E OF 81W VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS
1 TO 3 FT. W OF 81W NE TO E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT IN
E SWELL SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FT MON NIGHT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT EXCEPT NE TO E
WINDS W OF 83W. SEAS 1 TO 3 FT.
.WED...E TO SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT S OF
18N E OF 80W LATE. SEAS 1 TO 3 FT BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FT S OF 18N
E OF 80W LATE.
.THU AND FRI...S OF 18N E OF 80W E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO
5 FT. ELSEWHERE E TO SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT SHIFTING TO NE TO E
FRI. SEAS 1 TO 3 FT.

$$
AMZ084-190330-
SW CARIBBEAN S OF 15N W OF 75W
530 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2011

.TONIGHT...N OF 11N E OF 82W NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3
TO 5 FT. ELSEWHERE VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT IN
NE TO E SWELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS W OF 80W.
.MON THROUGH WED...N OF 11N NE TO E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO
4 FT IN NE TO E SWELL SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FT TUE. S OF 11N
VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 3 FT.
.THU AND FRI...N OF 11N E OF 79W NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS
4 TO 6 FT. N OF 11N W OF 79W NE TO E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4
FT. S OF 11N NW TO N WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 3 FT.

$$
AMZ086-190330-
E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W TO THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS
530 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2011

.TONIGHT...NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT SHIFTING TO E TO SE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
NE PORTION.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E OF 70W E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2
TO 4 FT. W OF 70W NE TO E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS BETWEEN 66W AND 72W.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT BUILDING
TO 3 TO 5 FT WED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS W OF 70W.
.THU...NE TO E WINDS 15 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 3 TO 5
FT BUILDING TO 4 TO 7 FT LATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS NE
PORTION LATE.
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS E OF 70W.

$$
AMZ087-190330-
TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2011

.TONIGHT THROUGH WED...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT EXCEPT 5 TO 10 KT S
OF 12N. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FT N OF 14N WED.
.THU...N OF 12N NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT
BUILDING TO 7 TO 10 FT IN E SWELL LATE. S OF 12N NE TO E WINDS
10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS CENTRAL
PORTION LATE.
.FRI...N OF 12N NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT SHIFTING TO E TO SE
LATE. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. S OF 12N E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS
5 TO 8 FT IN E SWELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 10N TO
20N.

$$
AMZ088-190330-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE SW N ATLC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS
530 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N76W TO CAPE CANAVERAL
FLORIDA WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A TROUGH FROM 29N76W TO ACROSS
THE W BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA WILL DRIFT W OF THE AREA MON.
ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE FAR SE PORTION WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION THROUGH WED. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NE LATE WED THROUGH FRI.

$$
AMZ080-190330-
SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 65W INCLUDING BAHAMAS
530 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2011

.TONIGHT...NW OF FRONT NE WINDS 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 TO 7 FT TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE N OF 22N W OF 72W NE TO E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT
EXCEPT 2 TO 4 FT SW OF BAHAMAS. N OF 22N E OF 72W E TO SE WINDS
10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. S OF 22N E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT.
SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS NEAR FRONT AND
TROUGHS.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N OF 27N W OF 72W NE TO E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT
SHIFTING TO E TO SE MON NIGHT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT IN NE SWELL. N OF
27N E OF 72W E TO SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT
MON NIGHT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN NE SWELL. S OF 27N E TO SE WINDS 10
TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT EXCEPT 2 TO 4 FT W OF BAHAMAS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS NEAR TROUGH.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT EXCEPT 15 TO 20 KT
S OF 22N. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT EXCEPT 2 TO 4 FT W OF BAHAMAS.
.FRI...N OF 27N W OF 72W VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5
FT IN SE SWELL. ELSEWHERE N OF 22N E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT.
SEAS 4 TO 6 FT EXCEPT 1 TO 3 FT W OF BAHAMAS. S OF 22N E WINDS
15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.

$$
FORECASTER LEWITSKY

[cycloneye]

00z Best track

AL, 98, 2011091900, , BEST, 0, 119N, 371W, 25, 1008, LO

[underthwx]

Caribbean Sea Offshore Waters Forecast


000
FZNT23 KNHC 182033
OFFNT3

ATLC/CARIBBEAN OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE SW AND TROPICAL
N ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN SEA
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W...THE SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 65W
INCLUDING BAHAMAS...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

AMZ089-190330-
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL MOVE
TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MON. ANOTHER TROUGH ALONG THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TONIGHT. A THIRD
TROUGH IN THE NE CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
MON NIGHT AND TUE THEN THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. 1009 MB LOW PRES IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TROPICAL N ATLC THU AND INTO THE E CARIBBEAN FRI.

$$
AMZ082-190330-
NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 75W
530 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2011

.TONIGHT...S OF 18N W OF 85W E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT
DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE. ELSEWHERE NE TO E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT.
SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS W OF 80W.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E OF 81W VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS
1 TO 3 FT. W OF 81W NE TO E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT IN
E SWELL SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FT MON NIGHT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT EXCEPT NE TO E
WINDS W OF 83W. SEAS 1 TO 3 FT.
.WED...E TO SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT S OF
18N E OF 80W LATE. SEAS 1 TO 3 FT BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FT S OF 18N
E OF 80W LATE.
.THU AND FRI...S OF 18N E OF 80W E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO
5 FT. ELSEWHERE E TO SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT SHIFTING TO NE TO E
FRI. SEAS 1 TO 3 FT.

$$
AMZ084-190330-
SW CARIBBEAN S OF 15N W OF 75W
530 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2011

.TONIGHT...N OF 11N E OF 82W NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3
TO 5 FT. ELSEWHERE VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT IN
NE TO E SWELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS W OF 80W.
.MON THROUGH WED...N OF 11N NE TO E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO
4 FT IN NE TO E SWELL SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FT TUE. S OF 11N
VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 3 FT.
.THU AND FRI...N OF 11N E OF 79W NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS
4 TO 6 FT. N OF 11N W OF 79W NE TO E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4
FT. S OF 11N NW TO N WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 3 FT.

$$
AMZ086-190330-
E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W TO THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS
530 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2011

.TONIGHT...NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT SHIFTING TO E TO SE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
NE PORTION.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E OF 70W E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2
TO 4 FT. W OF 70W NE TO E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS BETWEEN 66W AND 72W.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT BUILDING
TO 3 TO 5 FT WED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS W OF 70W.
.THU...NE TO E WINDS 15 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 3 TO 5
FT BUILDING TO 4 TO 7 FT LATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS NE
PORTION LATE.
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS E OF 70W.

$$
AMZ087-190330-
TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2011

.TONIGHT THROUGH WED...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT EXCEPT 5 TO 10 KT S
OF 12N. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FT N OF 14N WED.
.THU...N OF 12N NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT
BUILDING TO 7 TO 10 FT IN E SWELL LATE. S OF 12N NE TO E WINDS
10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS CENTRAL
PORTION LATE.
.FRI...N OF 12N NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT SHIFTING TO E TO SE
LATE. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. S OF 12N E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS
5 TO 8 FT IN E SWELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 10N TO
20N.

$$
AMZ088-190330-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE SW N ATLC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS
530 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N76W TO CAPE CANAVERAL
FLORIDA WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A TROUGH FROM 29N76W TO ACROSS
THE W BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA WILL DRIFT W OF THE AREA MON.
ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE FAR SE PORTION WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION THROUGH WED. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NE LATE WED THROUGH FRI.

$$
AMZ080-190330-
SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 65W INCLUDING BAHAMAS
530 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2011

.TONIGHT...NW OF FRONT NE WINDS 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 TO 7 FT TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE N OF 22N W OF 72W NE TO E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT
EXCEPT 2 TO 4 FT SW OF BAHAMAS. N OF 22N E OF 72W E TO SE WINDS
10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. S OF 22N E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT.
SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS NEAR FRONT AND
TROUGHS.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N OF 27N W OF 72W NE TO E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT
SHIFTING TO E TO SE MON NIGHT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT IN NE SWELL. N OF
27N E OF 72W E TO SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT
MON NIGHT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN NE SWELL. S OF 27N E TO SE WINDS 10
TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT EXCEPT 2 TO 4 FT W OF BAHAMAS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS NEAR TROUGH.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT EXCEPT 15 TO 20 KT
S OF 22N. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT EXCEPT 2 TO 4 FT W OF BAHAMAS.
.FRI...N OF 27N W OF 72W VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5
FT IN SE SWELL. ELSEWHERE N OF 22N E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT.
SEAS 4 TO 6 FT EXCEPT 1 TO 3 FT W OF BAHAMAS. S OF 22N E WINDS
15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.

$$
FORECASTER LEWITSKY

[underthwx]

http://water.weather.gov/resources/hydr ... dp4_hg.png


NEAR FLOOD STAGE

[cycloneye]

PUERTO RICO/U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HOURLY WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
800 PM AST SUN SEP 18 2011

PRZ001-004-190100-
PUERTO RICO

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
SAN JUAN LMM CLEAR 75 73 94 SE5 29.94R
AGUADILLA CLEAR 75 73 94 SE5 29.93S
CEIBA CLEAR 79 75 89 CALM 29.94R
$$

PRZ006-007-190100-
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
CHARLOTTE AMA PTCLDY 79 75 89 NE12 29.94R
CHRISTIANSTED PTCLDY 81 75 83 E6 29.94R
$$

[underthwx]

SFWMD MODELS

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_98.gif

[Gustywind]

Waouw at this rate, we should reach 600 pages before November

[underthwx]

More like the end of September..

[underthwx]

000
CDCA42 TJSJ 182245
CLISJU

CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN, PR
645 PM AST SUN SEP 18 2011


...................................

...THE SAN JUAN/P.R. CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR SEPTEMBER 18 2011...
VALID TODAY AS OF 05:00 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD: 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD: 1898 TO 2011


WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR
NORMAL
..................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)
TODAY
MAXIMUM 79 11:20 AM 96 1995 89 -10 90
MINIMUM 73 6:24 AM 71 1960 78 -5 78
AVERAGE 76 84 -8 84

PRECIPITATION (IN)
TODAY 0.04 8.84 1989 0.19 -0.15 0.64
MONTH TO DATE 2.96 3.63 -0.67 5.39
SINCE SEP 1 2.96 3.63 -0.67 5.39
SINCE JAN 1 66.06 37.25 28.81 62.75

DEGREE DAYS
HEATING
TODAY 0 0 0 0
MONTH TO DATE 0 0 0 0
SINCE SEP 1 0 0 0 0
SINCE JUL 1 0 0 0 0

COOLING
TODAY 11 18 -7 19
MONTH TO DATE 319 339 -20 339
SINCE SEP 1 319 339 -20 339
SINCE JAN 1 3989 4203 -214 4398
..................................................................


WIND (MPH)
HIGHEST WIND SPEED 17 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION E (80)
HIGHEST GUST SPEED 21 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION E (80)
AVERAGE WIND SPEED 5.2


SKY COVER
POSSIBLE SUNSHINE MM
AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.4


WEATHER CONDITIONS
THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED TODAY.
FOG


RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)
HIGHEST 100 4:00 AM
LOWEST 74 12:00 AM
AVERAGE 87

..........................................................


THE SAN JUAN/P.R. CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TOMORROW
NORMAL RECORD YEAR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 89 93 1995
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 78 71 1950


SUNRISE AND SUNSET
SEPTEMBER 18 2011.....SUNRISE 6:12 AM AST SUNSET 6:24 PM AST
SEPTEMBER 19 2011.....SUNRISE 6:12 AM AST SUNSET 6:23 PM AST


- INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
* INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.
T INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.







The U.S. Naval Observatory (USNO) computes astronomical data. Therefore, the NWS does not record, certify, or authenticate astronomical data. Computed times of sunrise, sunset, moonrise, moonset; and twilight, moon phases and other astronomical data are available from USNO's Astronomical Applications Department (http://www.usno.navy.mil). See http://www.usno.navy.mil/USNO/astronomi ... litigation for informat

[underthwx]

000
CDCA42 TJSJ 182245
CLISJU

CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN, PR
645 PM AST SUN SEP 18 2011


...................................

...THE SAN JUAN/P.R. CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR SEPTEMBER 18 2011...
VALID TODAY AS OF 05:00 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD: 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD: 1898 TO 2011


WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR
NORMAL
..................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)
TODAY
MAXIMUM 79 11:20 AM 96 1995 89 -10 90
MINIMUM 73 6:24 AM 71 1960 78 -5 78
AVERAGE 76 84 -8 84

PRECIPITATION (IN)
TODAY 0.04 8.84 1989 0.19 -0.15 0.64
MONTH TO DATE 2.96 3.63 -0.67 5.39
SINCE SEP 1 2.96 3.63 -0.67 5.39
SINCE JAN 1 66.06 37.25 28.81 62.75

DEGREE DAYS
HEATING
TODAY 0 0 0 0
MONTH TO DATE 0 0 0 0
SINCE SEP 1 0 0 0 0
SINCE JUL 1 0 0 0 0

COOLING
TODAY 11 18 -7 19
MONTH TO DATE 319 339 -20 339
SINCE SEP 1 319 339 -20 339
SINCE JAN 1 3989 4203 -214 4398
..................................................................


WIND (MPH)
HIGHEST WIND SPEED 17 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION E (80)
HIGHEST GUST SPEED 21 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION E (80)
AVERAGE WIND SPEED 5.2


SKY COVER
POSSIBLE SUNSHINE MM
AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.4


WEATHER CONDITIONS
THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED TODAY.
FOG


RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)
HIGHEST 100 4:00 AM
LOWEST 74 12:00 AM
AVERAGE 87

..........................................................


THE SAN JUAN/P.R. CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TOMORROW
NORMAL RECORD YEAR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 89 93 1995
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 78 71 1950


SUNRISE AND SUNSET
SEPTEMBER 18 2011.....SUNRISE 6:12 AM AST SUNSET 6:24 PM AST
SEPTEMBER 19 2011.....SUNRISE 6:12 AM AST SUNSET 6:23 PM AST


- INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
* INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.
T INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.







The U.S. Naval Observatory (USNO) computes astronomical data. Therefore, the NWS does not record, certify, or authenticate astronomical data. Computed times of sunrise, sunset, moonrise, moonset; and twilight, moon phases and other astronomical data are available from USNO's Astronomical Applications Department (http://www.usno.navy.mil). See http://www.usno.navy.mil/USNO/astronomi ... litigation for informat

[underthwx]

000
CDCA42 TJSJ 182245
CLISJU

CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN, PR
645 PM AST SUN SEP 18 2011


...................................

...THE SAN JUAN/P.R. CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR SEPTEMBER 18 2011...
VALID TODAY AS OF 05:00 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD: 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD: 1898 TO 2011


WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR
NORMAL
..................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)
TODAY
MAXIMUM 79 11:20 AM 96 1995 89 -10 90
MINIMUM 73 6:24 AM 71 1960 78 -5 78
AVERAGE 76 84 -8 84

PRECIPITATION (IN)
TODAY 0.04 8.84 1989 0.19 -0.15 0.64
MONTH TO DATE 2.96 3.63 -0.67 5.39
SINCE SEP 1 2.96 3.63 -0.67 5.39
SINCE JAN 1 66.06 37.25 28.81 62.75

DEGREE DAYS
HEATING
TODAY 0 0 0 0
MONTH TO DATE 0 0 0 0
SINCE SEP 1 0 0 0 0
SINCE JUL 1 0 0 0 0

COOLING
TODAY 11 18 -7 19
MONTH TO DATE 319 339 -20 339
SINCE SEP 1 319 339 -20 339
SINCE JAN 1 3989 4203 -214 4398
..................................................................


WIND (MPH)
HIGHEST WIND SPEED 17 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION E (80)
HIGHEST GUST SPEED 21 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION E (80)
AVERAGE WIND SPEED 5.2


SKY COVER
POSSIBLE SUNSHINE MM
AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.4


WEATHER CONDITIONS
THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED TODAY.
FOG


RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)
HIGHEST 100 4:00 AM
LOWEST 74 12:00 AM
AVERAGE 87

..........................................................


THE SAN JUAN/P.R. CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TOMORROW
NORMAL RECORD YEAR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 89 93 1995
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 78 71 1950


SUNRISE AND SUNSET
SEPTEMBER 18 2011.....SUNRISE 6:12 AM AST SUNSET 6:24 PM AST
SEPTEMBER 19 2011.....SUNRISE 6:12 AM AST SUNSET 6:23 PM AST


- INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
* INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.
T INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.







The U.S. Naval Observatory (USNO) computes astronomical data. Therefore, the NWS does not record, certify, or authenticate astronomical data. Computed times of sunrise, sunset, moonrise, moonset; and twilight, moon phases and other astronomical data are available from USNO's Astronomical Applications Department (http://www.usno.navy.mil). See http://www.usno.navy.mil/USNO/astronomi ... litigation for informat

[underthwx]

http://sats.hamweather.net/hw/640x480/trop_clir.jpg


Satellite Tropical Image..

[underthwx]

98L Models
http://tropics.hamweather.com/images/tr ... models.jpg

[underthwx]

Track Data for Selected Models
GFS BAMM UKMET CMC GFDL NGPS LBAR
Model Run Time: Sun Sep 18 2011 2:00 PM EDT
Date Position Pressure Winds
(UTC) Lat Lon in (mb) mph (kts)
1800 SUN SEP 18 10.8N 36.2W 30 (1010) 24 (21)
0000 MON SEP 19 11.1N 36.5W 30 (1011) 24 (21)
0600 MON SEP 19 11.3N 36.9W 30 (1009) 23 (20)
1200 MON SEP 19 11.1N 36.5W 30 (1011) 24 (21)
1800 MON SEP 19 11.2N 36.5W 30 (1008) 24 (21)
0000 TUE SEP 20 11.5N 36.2W 30 (1011) 28 (24)
0600 TUE SEP 20 11.7N 37.2W 30 (1008) 31 (27)
1200 TUE SEP 20 12.0N 38.5W 30 (1011) 33 (29)
1800 TUE SEP 20 12.3N 39.7W 30 (1008) 35 (30)
0000 WED SEP 21 12.4N 41.0W 30 (1010) 39 (34)
0600 WED SEP 21 12.5N 42.3W 30 (1007) 41 (36)
1200 WED SEP 21 12.6N 43.7W 30 (1010) 43 (37)
1800 WED SEP 21 12.8N 45.1W 30 (1007) 40 (35)
0000 THU SEP 22 12.9N 46.6W 30 (1010) 41 (36)
0600 THU SEP 22 12.9N 48.0W 30 (1007) 46 (40)
1200 THU SEP 22 13.0N 49.4W 30 (1011) 47 (41)
1800 THU SEP 22 13.2N 50.8W 30 (1008) 47 (41)
0000 FRI SEP 23 13.1N 52.1W 30 (1010) 44 (38)
0600 FRI SEP 23 13.1N 53.8W 30 (1008) 39 (34)
1200 FRI SEP 23 13.4N 55.5W 30 (1010) 38 (33)
1800 FRI SEP 23 13.6N 57.4W 30 (1008) 36 (31)
0000 SAT SEP 24 13.7N 58.8W 30 (1009) 36 (31)
0600 SAT SEP 24 14.0N 60.6W 30 (1007) 32 (28)
1200 SAT SEP 24 14.0N 62.3W 30 (1010) 29 (25)
1800 SAT SEP 24 14.1N 63.8W 30 (1007) 26 (23)
0000 SUN SEP 25 14.4N 64.8W 30 (1008) 26 (23)
0600 SUN SEP 25 14.6N 65.7W 30 (1007) 24 (21)
1200 SUN SEP 25 15.0N 66.4W 30 (1009) 26 (23)
1800 SUN SEP 25 15.6N 67.1W 30 (1007) 23 (20)
0000 MON SEP 26 15.8N 67.9W 30 (1008) 21 (18)
0600 MON SEP 26 16.4N 68.1W 30 (1008) 22 (19)
About the GFS model: GFS Model
Zoom map: Basin | Level 1 | Level 2
Model Selector
GFS BAMM UKMET CMC
GFDL NOGAPS LBAR

Show full model listing


Invest #98 Maps Invest #98 Text Products


Track Details
Created with HAMweather 4 Dev 1
© 1997-2011 HAMweather, LLC, all rights reserved.
4.5MB : 1.72 seconds

[cycloneye]

98L Models
http://tropics.hamweather.com/images/tr ... models.jpg

I dont like those tracks at all.

[Gustywind]

:uarrow: More like the end of September..

Waouw you're so optimistic! Given this trend i shoud say yeah you're maybe right i'm pretty confident