#10318 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Jan 11, 2016 5:42 am
It appears that the first freeze of the season FINALLY may happen here this week, possibly as early as tomorrow (Tuesday) morning. High pressue axis will move in a position wbich will place it centered much closer to the Florida peninsula. Lows are now forecast to drop into the upper 20s in the colder inlandocales of North Florida and near 30 to lower 30s in the Jax metro area tomorrow morning. Also, with the HP axis moving in closer to the region, wind will become much more lighter to even calm to promote the best opportunity of FINALLY seeing a wifespread frost potential in Northeast Florida this season on Tuesday morning.
For now, it appears high cloudiness associated with the Subtropical Jet will stay south of Jax, but be over Central and Southern Florida to keep those areas from getting colder than it potentially could have been. However, temps still could dip into the upper 30s dosn to near the I-4 corridor on Tuesday morning. South Florida should see lows from the mid 40s north and west of Lake O to 50 to 55 degrees closer to metro areas of West Palm Beach, Ft. Lauderdale and Miami.
Currently it is 36 degrees at 5 a.m. with NW wind around 7.mph. This morning we are getting very good cold air advection with HP axis west / northwest of the region. There is still about nearly 3 hours of cooling still go come, there is a chance we may touch the freeze mark this morning. I will monitor this closely.
The long range looks very interesting just beyond ten days, but GFS is advertising the potential of the phasing of the Polar and Subtropical Jets by the middle of next week (Jan 20-22) if this verifies, the potential of a major winter storm is being shown by the GFS tracking a bit far to the south to develop from portions of the Deep South to the Mid Atlantic during the specified time in the extended. Lots will probably change between now and then. But it is something to watch because if we get phasing next week, the potential of a significant cold spell across the Florida peninsula will increase. Phasing would likely cause deep sharpening of the upper level trough over the Eastern CONUS, which could allow cold air to funnel right down to Florida on upper level northwesterly to north flow straight from the polar region. Just something to monitor next 10-12 days.
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Last edited by
northjaxpro on Mon Jan 11, 2016 8:06 am, edited 4 times in total.
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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
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Yeap, 12z GFS now shows 40s for lows as the lowest for central FL for the week, but I still think that 30s will visit central FL over the next couple of weeks before the NAO goes back up positive, but like I have been saying the active subtropical jet will most likely keep us from reaching the freezing mark.
