Memorial Day Weekend Outbreak 2008

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1038
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1018 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL...PORTIONS NERN AR...WRN KY...SERN AND
EXTREME E-CENTRAL MO INCLUDING BOOT-HEEL...NWRN TN...EXTREME SWRN
INDIANA.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 366...370...

VALID 260318Z - 260515Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
366...370...CONTINUES.

SEVERAL MESOBETA AND SMALLER SCALE CLUSTERS OF STG-SVR TSTMS ARE
ORGANIZING UPSCALE INTO MCS...WITH CONTINUING THREAT OF HAIL AND
DAMAGING GUSTS AS ACTIVITY MOVED GENERALLY EWD TOWARD LOWER OH
VALLEY REGION AND NWRN TN.

MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND 500 MB ANALYSIS EACH INDICATE REMAINS
OF MCV OVER OZARKS OF S-CENTRAL/SERN MO...MOVING EWD. RICHEST PLUME
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE -- ANALYZED ROUGHLY FROM EXTREME SRN IL SSWWD
DOWN MS VALLEY -- MAY REMAIN JUXTAPOSED WITH SMALL AREA OF WEAK
DEEP-LAYER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH MCV. THIS SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN
BOTH FAVORABLE BUOYANCY AND PRESENCE OF NEAR-SFC BASED EFFECTIVE
LIFTED PARCELS...IN SUPPORT OF A FEW MORE HOURS OF ORGANIZED SVR
POTENTIAL. THEREAFTER...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL CINH SHOULD BEGIN
TO TEMPER BOTH SFC-BASED INFLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR DOWNDRAFTS TO
PENETRATE TO SFC AOA SVR LEVELS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE...WITH 0-3 KM SRH UP TO 300-400 J/KG AS SAMPLED BY PAH
VWP...NOT WELL FCST BY RUC. WHILE LOCALIZED SUPERCELLULAR
STRUCTURES STILL ARE POSSIBLE...PRIND DOMINANT MODE THROUGH
REMAINDER EVENING WILL BE LINEAR..WITH LEWP/BOW FEATURES POSSIBLE.

..EDWARDS.. 05/26/2008


ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...

35509158 36009101 36589085 36949028 37399022 37799006
38409029 38799005 39109032 39428742 38538760 38348709
37908691 37088712 36688728 36438860 35728895 35429030
35139049 34929133

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1039
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1022 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 260322Z - 260445Z

TSTM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS LOWER
MI AS MCS CLUSTERS OVER NRN LK MI/ERN WI SHIFT EWD. A MARGINAL
SEVERE HAIL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE WITHIN STRONGER CORES GIVEN
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. A COOL AND RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD MITIGATE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT EVEN WITH POSSIBLE LINEAR
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. DUE TO THIS...A WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED
ATTM.

RECENT RADAR/LIGHTNING IMAGERY DEPICTED TWO DISTINCT MCS CLUSTERS.
ONE ACROSS NRN LK MI AND NERN WI WITH A SECOND ACROSS FAR SRN WI.
WITH THE LLJ ALREADY INCREASING TO AROUND 40-50 KT IN LOWER MI VAD
PROFILERS...STRENGTHENING WARM/MOIST ADVECTION SHOULD SUPPORT
TRANSLATION/EXPANSION OF CONVECTION INITIALLY INTO NRN LOWER MI AND
EVENTUALLY INTO SRN LOWER MI. MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE
SHEAR AROUND 30-40 KT PER LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS...SHOULD PROVE
FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT...MAINLY FROM HAIL.

03Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
CONVECTION EARLIER THIS EVENING NEAR TVC TO BAX. SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE HELD IN THE 40S INDICATIVE OF A
RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AS SAMPLED BY 00Z APX/DTX RAOBS. NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED IN THE 50S. THE
NET RESULT SHOULD BE A STABLE SURFACE-BASED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE
/AS DEPICTED IN LATEST RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS/...SUGGESTING TSTMS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS THEY EXPAND INTO LOWER MI. WITH CONVECTIVE
DOWNDRAFTS UNLIKELY TO PENETRATE TO THE SURFACE...ANY DAMAGING WIND
THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOCALIZED.

..GRAMS.. 05/26/2008


ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...

45098338 43688367 42398449 42008541 42088625 42768646
43388669 44448649 45298569 45678521 45558413

[RL3AO]

Hugo, MN storm.



EF4?

[CrazyC83]

Hugo, MN storm.



EF4?

I'd say EF3, since there don't appear to be any flattened houses there - I see walls on all of them.

[CrazyC83]

Mean bow echo going through central Iowa, plenty capable of 80-100 mph winds.

[snoopj]

I know it's not severe weather related, but a nice gust front just went through my area. Rather refreshing when it's been rather warm and muggy around here today.

--snoopj

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1040
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1059 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NERN IL...NWRN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY

VALID 260359Z - 260500Z

QLCS STRETCHING FROM FAR SRN WI/NWRN IL INTO S-CNTRL IA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE EWD FIRST INTO NERN IL AND THEN INTO CNTRL IL.
PRIMARY THREAT WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN PROGRESSIVE
BOW/LEWP NATURE OF LINE OVER S-CNTRL IA ATTM. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH
ISSUANCE IS LIKELY BY 05Z.

RECENT SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSES DEPICT A GRADUAL RISE IN SURFACE
DEW POINTS ACROSS CNTRL IL INTO NWRN IND...INTO THE MID 50S TO MID
60S AS OF 03Z. AS SUCH...LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE AIR
MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH MUCAPES AROUND 1000 TO
2000 J/KG. WITH CONCENTRATED SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WITHIN THIS
REGION INDICATIVE OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL WAA...A
MAINTENANCE OF STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS OVER S-CNTRL IA INTO NWRN IL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS/MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE W/E-ORIENTED
PORTION OF THE QLCS...A MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND
GUSTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH POSSIBLY AN EMBEDDED LOCALIZED
TORNADO GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE N/S-ORIENTED BOW/LEWP MOVING THROUGH
S-CNTRL IA.

..GRAMS.. 05/26/2008


ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

41768678 41348686 40328750 39788905 39689012 39859065
40159095 40759052 41069022 41198911 41928865 42358845
42268766

[CrazyC83]

TORNADO WARNING
IAC095-260445-
/O.NEW.KDVN.TO.W.0023.080526T0406Z-080526T0445Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1106 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
IOWA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...

* UNTIL 1145 PM CDT.

* AT 1103 PM CDT...TRAINED SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR THE
VICTOR REST AREA ON INTERSTATE 80..OR 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MARENGO...MOVING EAST AT 38 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
6 MILES NORTH OF MILLERSBURG AROUND 1110 PM CDT...
6 MILES SOUTH OF LADORA AROUND 1115 PM CDT...
WILLIAMSBURG...7 MILES NORTH OF PARNELL AND 8 MILES SOUTH OF
MARENGO AROUND 1125 PM CDT...
CONROY AROUND 1130 PM CDT...
AMANA AROUND 1140 PM CDT...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 IN IOWA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 205 AND 228.

TORNADOES AT NIGHT ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AND ARE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS.

DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS ARE LIKELY IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT MONDAY MORNING FOR
EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 4186 9185 4157 9183 4154 9227 4172 9231
4173 9231 4175 9231 4175 9230
TIME...MOT...LOC 0406Z 254DEG 33KT 4164 9226

$$

[RL3AO]

SPC downgrades a day 2 MDT to a day 1 SLGT.

[CajunMama]

What happened to all the tornado reports on the spc for the 25th? They are showing no tornados reported. (Brent can vouch for this!)

[tornado92]

The Weather Channel suggests that Kansas would be hit hard today.

Clusters of severe thunderstorms, capable of producing large hail, tornadoes and damaging wind gusts, will be ongoing from the Upper Midwest south-southwestward into West Texas overnight. There have been over 250 severe reports and counting. Hail up to grapefruit size comprises the majority of the reports. There have been 3 dozen tornado reports and counting.

The storms in Kansas will form a powerful complex overnight and slash eastward through northeast Kansas, southeast Nebraska, northern Missouri and southern Iowa. Damaging wind gusts and very heavy rain are likely. Flash flooding is quite possible as several inches of rain could fall in a short time.

On Memorial Day, severe thunderstorms will develop from the eastern Great Lakes, through the Ohio Valley, to the central Plains and the southern high Plains. The threat for tornadoes and large hail will be particularly high in Kansas. For a second time, a coalesced complex of severe thunderstorms from out of Kansas will shift eastward into Missouri Monday night, producing damaging wind gusts and flash-flooding rains.

Nice.

[Squarethecircle]

Hugo, MN storm.



EF4?

I'd say EF3, since there don't appear to be any flattened houses there - I see walls on all of them.

I think some of the areas that are just piles of debris used to be houses.

[Bunkertor]

CNN now showing the weather in OKC, where severe weather is predicted today.

[wx247]

It likes it will be another busy day today. What a crazy last few days! My thoughts and prayers are with the families who have lots their homes and to those who have lost friends and relatives.

[CrazyC83]

The tornado threat is only at 5% though (which might be conservative).

[RL3AO]

Jeff Master's blog

An exceptional tornado outbreak continues to hammer the U.S. tonight, in what has been an extraordinary year for tornadoes. A mile-wide tornado plowed through Parkersburg, Iowa this afternoon, killing at least five people and injuring 15, according to KCRG. The tornado passed just north of the airport in Waterloo, Iowa, which recorded sustained winds of 64mph, gusting to 94 mph at 5:37pm CDT. Damage appeared to be at least EF-4 in photos I saw, and possibly EF-5 (over 200 mph). In Minnesota, another powerful twister killed at least one person and injured 9 in the Minneapolis suburb of Hugo this afternoon.

[Melissa]

Looks like Kansas is not going to be calm today.


SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOMETIME THIS
AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL KANSAS...THEN TRAVERSE THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE INITIAL THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...MAINLY NORTH OF A
KINGMAN TO ELDORADO TO EUREKA LINE. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY
TRANSITION INTO A LINE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH
THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. IF IT BECOMES
MORE CERTAIN THAT THE RICH MOISTURE WILL REACH THE FRONT AND
COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...THE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER WILL GREATLY INCREASE.http://forecast.weather.gov/sh ... er+Outlook

[wall_cloud]

CNN now showing the weather in OKC, where severe weather is predicted today.

Its May! no need for the face!

[RL3AO]

The tornado threat is only at 5% though (which might be conservative).

Upped to 10%

[Bunkertor]

CNN now showing the weather in OKC, where severe weather is predicted today.

Its May! no need for the face!

Right, but i´ve never seen CNN just showing some clouds and sun at 9 am ET, without comment or so...

and

the eek: is my favorite smiley