MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0330
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0636 AM CST MON MAR 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN TX/SWRN AND CENTRAL LA
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 101...
   
   VALID 201236Z - 201330Z
   
   TORNADO THREAT REMAINS ACROSS VALID PART OF WW 101 EXTENDING FROM
   FAR SERN TX INTO SWRN/CENTRAL LA.
   
   12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER TX
   COASTAL PLAINS /35 NW HOU/ NEWD TO 10 S POE TO 15 S HEZ...AND THEN
   SEWD ACROSS SERN MS TO FAR SWRN AL.  MEANWHILE...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...
   ASSOCIATED WITH EXTENSIVE AREA OF CONVECTION OVER NERN TX/NRN LA TO
   PARTS OF NRN MS...WAS PARALLEL AND JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN
   SE TX/WRN LA...AND THEN EXTENDED NEWD INTO NRN MS.
   
   REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED THE STRONGEST STORM WITHIN WW 101 WAS
   LOCATED IN NEWTON COUNTY AT 1230Z TRACKING TOWARD THE ENE.  THIS
   STORM HAS MAINTAINED A PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL ROTATION FOR THE LAST 2
   HOURS. CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THIS STORM TO THE WARM FRONT AND OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY WOULD SUGGEST A HEIGHTENED TORNADO THREAT...GIVEN ENHANCED
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VALUES ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES.
   
   FARTHER S ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST REGION...RECENT THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE WITHIN LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME WITH ISOLATED
   HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
   
   ..PETERS.. 03/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...
   
   30209427 31459418 31619197 30319202

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0331
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0920 AM CST MON MAR 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX / CNTRL AND SRN LA / SRN MS
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 101...
   
   VALID 201520Z - 201645Z
   
   WW 101 WILL EXPIRE AT 16Z AND A REPLACEMENT TORNADO WATCH WILL
   LIKELY BE REQUIRED.
   
   AS OF 15Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO
   POTENTIALLY SEVERE /SLIGHTLY ELEVATED/ TSTMS FROM NEAR LFK SWD TO 40
   NW BPT EXTENDING EWD INTO CNTRL LA NEAR ESF.  MESOANALYSIS AND VAD
   DATA INDICATE THAT THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY BEING DRIVEN BY LOW-LEVEL
   WAA ALONG AND JUST TO THE N OF WARM FRONTAL/OUTFLOW COMPOSITE
   BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NW OF BPT TO JUST N OF MCB.  A MOIST
   LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS EXISTS S OF THIS BOUNDARY...CHARACTERIZED BY
   DEWPOINTS OF 65-70 F. 
   
   THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH INCREASED DIABATIC HEATING ARE
   CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS WARM SECTOR
   WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG.  THIS INSTABILITY IN CONJUNCTION
   WITH RELATIVELY STRONG LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /I.E. 0-1 KM SRH OF
   300-400 M2/S2 AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS/ ARE RESULTING
   IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED
   TORNADOES...PRIMARILY ALONG OR JUST TO THE S OF THIS W-E ORIENTED
   BAROCLINIC ZONE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NWD.  LARGE HAIL
   AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
   
   FARTHER TO THE W...ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE RECENTLY
   DEVELOPED ALONG COLD FRONT NW OF UTS.  GIVEN THE RELATIVE CLOSE
   PROXIMITY OF THESE STORMS TO COLD POOL EMANATING FROM AFOREMENTIONED
   TSTM CLUSTER...THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BECOME SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
   WITH TIME WITH A THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. THE APPARENT GREATER
   SEVERE THREAT HERE WOULD BE ALONG SRN EXTENSION OF COLD FRONT NE OF
   PSX WHERE INFLOW AIR MASS REMAINS UNCONTAMINATED.
   
   ..MEAD.. 03/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...
   
   30129498 31039501 31379398 31729105 31729009 31188998
   30479049 30139370

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0332
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1247 PM CST MON MAR 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN OK / NWRN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 201847Z - 202015Z
   
   TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY MID
   AFTERNOON /20-21Z/ ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA.  IT APPEARS THAT ISOLATED
   LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THE MOST
   INTENSE STORMS.
   
   AS OF 18Z...MESOANALYSIS INDICATED PRIMARY SURFACE LOW OVER THE TX
   PNHDL /N OF AMA/ WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD THROUGH
   W-CNTRL OK INTO AND INTO FAR SWRN AR.  DEEPENING BOUNDARY-LAYER
   MIXING HAS RESULTED IN THE EROSION OF LOW CLOUDINESS ACROSS NWRN TX
   INTO SWRN OK...WHICH IN TURN HAS SUPPORTED INCREASED DIABATIC
   HEATING AND A NWD MOVEMENT OF THIS WARM FRONT OVER THE PAST COUPLE
   OF HOURS.  MOREOVER...THIS INSOLATION IN CONJUNCTION WITH COLD
   MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW OVER THE TX PNHDL
   ARE CONTRIBUTING TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY FROM SWRN OK INTO WRN TX.
   
   LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SURFACE LOW WILL
   DEVELOP SEWD INTO SWRN OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ON CYCLONIC SIDE OF
   100 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ROTATING NEWD INTO THE ARKLATEX.
   CONTINUED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THIS LOW...COUPLED WITH
   INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN
   INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND
   TO THE N OF THE RED RIVER.
   
   WHILE SOME BACKING OF NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AHEAD OF
   THIS LOW...IT APPEARS THAT THE RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND
   MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /I.E. DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S/ WILL
   PRECLUDE A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT.
   HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.
   
   ..MEAD.. 03/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...LUB...AMA...
   
   34970019 35440003 35459927 35209818 34789724 34049698
   33699726 33589814 33869923 34289998

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0333
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1248 PM CST MON MAR 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO/NEB/MUCH OF KS/WRN IA/FAR NW MO
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 201848Z - 210015Z
   
   HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTN ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
   CNTRL PLAINS. HOURLY RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL
   PERSIST...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER RATES POSSIBLE WITHIN HEAVY MESOSCALE
   BANDS.
   
   LATEST RADAR AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW A PRONOUNCED AREA OF HEAVY
   SNOW ONGOING FROM THE CO FOOTHILLS TO GLD/MCK/HSI/LNK. THIS AXIS IS
   ASSOCIATED WITH DEFORMATION ZONE WHICH HAS SET UP ON THE NORTHWEST
   SIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM. LATEST AREA PROFILER AND VAD WIND DATA
   OBSERVE 50-55 KT LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW ACROSS NRN KS/SRN NEB...WHICH IS
   CONTRIBUTING TO SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND STRONG ISENTROPIC
   UPGLIDE. THE ZONE OF STRONGEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS FORECAST
   TO SHIFT INTO WRN KS/SERN NEB LATER THIS AFTN.
   
   CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE EWD FROM THE FRONT RANGE AS UPPER LOW
   MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY MID AFTN. HOWEVER TIGHT SFC PRESSURE
   GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN STRONG SFC WINDS /15-25 MPH/ WHICH WILL
   PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN ADDITION TO NEAR
   BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
   
   WARM NOSE EVIDENT IN 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM TOPEKA AND DODGE CITY THIS
   MORNING WILL COMPLICATE PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST. AT 1830Z THE
   RAIN/SNOW LINE IS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KANSAS CITY TO GREAT BEND.
   TEMPS ARE WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FROM SCNTRL KS
   THROUGH IA...WITH RAIN OBSERVED ACROSS CNTRL KS INTO NW MO. NAM
   POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE MUCH COOLER THAN CURRENTLY
   OBSERVED...AND INDICATE SNOW ACROSS NW MO THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...RUC
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SOMEWHAT BETTER WITH REGARD TO THE THERMAL
   PROFILES...AND SUGGEST MAIN PTYPE WITH BE RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXING
   WITH SNOW OR SLEET.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 03/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...
   
   38789709 38120002 37560177 37740364 40210352 41250315
   42340166 42749820 42739614 42449519 38979507

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0334
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0212 PM CST MON MAR 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN LA / CNTRL AND SRN MS
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 102...
   
   VALID 202012Z - 202145Z
   
   THROUGH 22Z...IT APPEARS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
   TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST ACROSS SRN HALF OF WW
   AREA...FROM JUST NE OF LCH TO N OF PIB.
   
   AS OF 1955Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED WIDESPREAD TSTMS
   ORIENTED WSW TO ENE FROM SWRN LA THROUGH CNTRL MS INTO NRN AL /N OF
   BHM/.  THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WERE SHORT LINE SEGMENTS
   ALONG THE MS RIVER NEAR HEZ AND APPROXIMATELY 35 SW JAN.  SYNTHESIS
   OF LATEST MESOANALYSIS WITH THIS RADAR DATA SUGGESTS THAT THESE
   STRONGER STORMS ARE LOCATED VERY NEAR OR JUST TO THE N OF A
   STATIONARY/OUTFLOW COMPOSITE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM N OF LCH TO N
   OF PIB.  THIS BOUNDARY HAS SHOWN VIRTUALLY NO NWD MOVEMENT OVER THE
   PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  IN FACT...18Z JAN SOUNDING INDICATED THAT
   LOW-LEVEL INVERSION MAY WELL HAVE DEEPENED OVER CNTRL MS...LARGELY
   DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT.  HOWEVER FARTHER TO THE
   E OVER SWRN AND W-CNTRL AL...AIR MASS IS SLOWLY
   MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING NWD.
   
   AIR MASS S OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS QUITE MOIST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
   MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG /REF. 18Z LIX SOUNDING/.
   MOREOVER...LOCAL VADS INDICATE THAT AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
   STRONGLY SHEARED WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 300-400 M2/S2 AND AROUND 60 KTS
   OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.  THEREFORE...IT APPEARS THAT POTENTIAL FOR
   SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN QUITE HIGH
   FOR ANY STORMS THAT CAN BECOME ROOTED IN BOUNDARY-LAYER AND MOVE
   ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE.
   
   THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP E
   OF WW 102 LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ACROSS SWRN AL AND A WW
   MAY BECOME NECESSARY.
   
   ..MEAD.. 03/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...
   
   31629357 32678876 30878876 29899361

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0335
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0458 PM CST MON MAR 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NWRN/CENTRAL OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 202258Z - 210030Z
   
   ISOLATED SMALL SUPERCELLS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FOR ANOTHER 1-2
   HOURS WITHIN NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG WARM FRONTAL ZONE...FROM
   OKFUSKEE/CREEK COUNTIES NWWD TOWARD AREA JUST S OF END.  TSTMS
   MOVING THROUGH FRONTAL ZONE MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE A TORNADO...AS WELL
   AS HAIL NEAR SEVERE LEVELS.  WW NOT ANTICIPATED BECAUSE OF
   TRANSIENT/MRGL NATURE OF SEVERE THREAT.
   
   SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL ZONE FROM NEAR MCINTOSH/PITTSBURG
   COUNTY LINE...IN NWRN PORTION WW 104...NWWD ACROSS LOGAN COUNTY THEN
   WNWWD ACROSS DEWEY COUNTY.  SMALL SUPERCELL OVER DEWEY COUNTY
   ALREADY HAS PRODUCED BRIEF TORNADO.  BACKED SFC WINDS ALONG FRONT
   ENLARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS IN REGIME OF STRONG AMBIENT/DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR...WITH MODIFIED VWP/PROFILER WINDS YIELDING 0-1 KM SRH 100-200
   J/KG.  MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPES UP TO ABOUT 500 J/KG.
   BUOYANCY IS SUPPORTED BY VERY STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM
   COMBINATION OF SFC HEATING AND COLD AIR ALOFT...AND SHOULD DIMINISH
   WITHIN NEXT 2 HOURS.
   
   MEANWHILE...CONVECTIVE GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
   FROM TSTMS MOVING EWD ACROSS S-CENTRAL OK INTO FAVORABLY HEATED AND
   WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...AMIDST STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW.  SEVERAL
   50-55 KT GUSTS ALREADY HAVE BEEN RECORDED IN MESONET STATIONS AND AT
   SPS OBSERVING SITE AS CONVECTION PASSED OVHD.  THIS ACTIVITY ALSO
   SHOULD WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF SFC HEATING IN INFLOW LAYER...ACROSS SERN
   OK.
   
   ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ACROSS REGION WITH INCREASING
   CLOUD/CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...AND LOSS OF SFC HEATING BY ABOUT 00Z.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 03/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...
   
   35419766 35669828 35879874 36159894 36309795 35879666
   35399599 34589616 33999684 33899751 33959789 34369772
   34859771 35279773

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0336
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0549 PM CST MON MAR 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN AL...SRN MS...WRN FL PANHANDLE...SWRN
   GA
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 103...
   
   VALID 202349Z - 210145Z
   
   CORRECTED FOR HEADER
   
   THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS REGION
   ALONG AND SE OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND -- MOST INTENSE PORTION OF
   WHICH WAS EVIDENT AT 2330Z FROM WILCOX COUNTY AL SWWD ACROSS PERRY
   COUNTY MS.  CONTINUE WW ALONG/AHEAD OF TSTM LINE.  ANOTHER WW IS
   NECESSARY FOR REMAINDER SRN AL SWD TO GULF COAST.
   
   EMBEDDED LEWPS...BOWS AND SUPERCELLS WILL SHIFT EWD TOWARD CORRIDOR
   FROM MGM-MOB OVER NEXT 1-2 HOURS...IN ENVIRONMENT OF AT LEAST MRGL
   BUOYANCY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR.  SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT FROM
   AMG WNWWD THROUGH AUO AREA THEN BECOMING DIFFUSE BENEATH NERN
   PORTION OF CONVECTIVE PLUME.  50-60 NM WIDE BAND OF RELATIVELY DRY
   AIR IS EVIDENT S OF THIS WARM FRONT.  PARALLEL MOISTURE GRADIENT IS
   EVIDENT NEAR A VLD-MGM LINE...AND SHOULD SHIFT NWD DURING NEXT 1-2
   HOURS TO CATCH THERMAL FRONT.  AS THIS OCCURS...AIR MASS ACROSS
   PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SERN AL...S OF WW...WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WITH ACTIVITY MOVING INTO AREA FROM W.  AIR
   MASS FROM MOISTURE GRADIENT SWD TO AL/FL PANHANDLE COAST IS
   CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEW POINTS LOW-MID 60S F...SUPPORTING MLCAPES
   500-800 J/KG BASED ON MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS.  MOB VWP
   DATA SHOWS 50-55 KT LLJ JUST 1 KM AGL...AIDING BOTH LOW LEVEL
   HODOGRAPHS AND STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 03/20/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...
   
   30318908 30448985 30798996 31268880 31808784 32408682
   32928629 32908588 32698538 32038493 31298471 30838463
   30148514 29668529 29678535 29788542 29868540 29918540
   30018553 30278602 30398657 30348707 30258774 30238824

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0337
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0632 PM CST MON MAR 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN OK AND EXTREME W-CENTRAL/SWRN AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 104...
   
   VALID 210032Z - 210200Z
   
   OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING ACROSS WW
   AREA...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DUSK.
   
   INITIAL LINE OF TSTMS HAS MOVED NEWD OVER PROGRESSIVELY DEEPER
   STABLE LAYER NE OF WARM FRONT. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE TO
   DIMINISH WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES ACROSS WRN AR...BUT ISOLATED
   STRONG GUSTS AND HAIL NEAR SEVERE LEVELS MAY OCCUR FOR ANOTHER 1-2
   HOURS. MEANWHILE...HIGH-BASED BAND OF CONVECTION -- INCLUDING
   INTERMITTENT TSTMS -- IS MOVING EWD 40-50 KT INTO WRN PORTIONS WW.
   ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY HAS PRODUCED SEVERE GUSTS ACROSS PORTIONS NW
   TX AND SWRN/S-CENTRAL OK...OVERALL WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN NOTED.
   THIS MAY BE RELATED TO DIABATIC SFC COOLING...AND TO INGESTION OF
   MORE STABLE INFLOW AIR ORIGINATING FROM INITIAL CONVECTION OVER SERN
   OK.  RELATIVELY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER FLOW MAY
   CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW ADDITIONAL GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 03/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
   
   33809620 35589615 35569405 33789400

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0338
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0731 PM CST MON MAR 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN NEB/IA/NRN MO/WRN IL
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 210131Z - 210700Z
   
   ...HEAVIEST SNOW RATES THIS EVENING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH MID
   LEVEL DEFORMATION BAND WHICH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM ERN NEB/SRN
   IA INTO WRN IL LATER THIS EVENING...
   
   THE MOST INTENSE SNOW FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS HAS BEEN OCCURRING
   ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF KS AND MUCH OF NEB /ROUGHLY FROM GLD TO LNK/.
   EXAMINATION OF 6HR-RADAR LOOPS SUGGEST THE HEAVIEST SNOW OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS WILL EXTEND FROM CNTRL NEB INTO SRN IA. CLOSED UPPER
   LOW NOW ACROSS WRN KS WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS KS WITH GREATEST
   VORTICITY ADVECTION FOCUSED ACROSS NRN MO/SRN IA INTO IL BY 06Z.
   UPPER FLOW IS COMPLICATED BY LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING
   THROUGH ERN OK.
   
   STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS
   FORECAST TO BE MAINLY OVER IA INTO IL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND
   THIS SEEMS TO AGREE WITH RADAR TRENDS. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM TOPEKA
   INDICATE 2-3 DEGREES OF COOLING HAS TAKEN PLACE NEAR 700 MB...BUT
   00Z SOUNDING FROM SPRINGFIELD HAS A WARM INVERSION WITH +7C NEAR
   850MB...SO PTYPE IS STILL PROBLEMATIC. ETA KF FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   FAVOR RAIN ACROSS ALL BUT FAR NRN MO...AND EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY BE
   A RAIN/SNOW MIX AS FAR SOUTH AS THE KC METRO...IT WOULD APPEAR THE
   HEAVIEST SNOW WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH.
   
   ACROSS IA AND WRN IL...DRY AIR WILL INITIALLY LIMIT PCPN REACHING
   THE GROUND AS DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 20S. BUT...INCREASING LIFT AND A
   DEEP SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT AN AREA OF HEAVY SNOW
   DEVELOPING THIS EVENING.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 03/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...
   
   39849307 39679519 40139948 40929991 42289955 42229484
   41879023 40119055

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0339
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0812 PM CST MON MAR 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL...PORTIONS FL PANHANDLE...SWRN/S-CENTRAL GA
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 103...105...
   
   VALID 210212Z - 210415Z
   
   CONTINUE WW 105 ALONG/AHEAD OF BAND OF TSTMS NOW EVIDENT FROM LGC
   AREA SWWD TO ABOUT 80 NM NE MOB.  ANOTHER WW MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS
   PORTIONS SRN GA -- E OF WW 105...NEAR AND S OF WARM FRONT.  BOTH WWS
   MAY BE CLEARED AS SFC-BASED CONVECTION EXITS COUNTIES
   WITHIN...MINIMIZING POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DAMAGING WIND OR
   TORNADOES.
   
   SHARPLY DEFINED SFC WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED AT 02Z FROM NEAR AYS NWWD
   TO ROUGHLY 25 N ABY...15 SW CSG...MEETING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ABOUT 10
   S AUO. BOWS WILL MOVE OVER WARM FRONT...THEN 20-30 NM OF SHALLOW
   STABLE AIR THAT MAY BE PENETRABLE BY SEVERE GUSTS...THEN
   PROGRESSIVELY DEEPER STABLE LAYER INTO CENTRAL GA.  SEVERE POTENTIAL
   WILL THEREFORE DIMINISH WITH NEWD DISTANCE FROM WARM FRONT.
   
   SEVERE CONVECTIVE BAND CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS SRN AL
   AND SWRN GA W OF WARM FRONT...WHILE INDIVIDUAL EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES
   MOVE ENE AT UP TO 50 KT.  MEASURED/CONFIRMED GUSTS TO 74 KT STRUCK
   AUO AT 0135Z FROM BOW THAT IS CROSSING GA BORDER.  ADDITIONAL SEVERE
   GUSTS ARE LIKELY WITH LARGER BOW AND LINE SEGMENT THAT WILL MOVE
   ACROSS PORTIONS BARBOUR/RUSSELL COUNTIES AL...AND PORTIONS
   MUSCOGEE/CHATTAHOOCHEE/STEWART/TALBOT/MARION/WEBSTER COUNTIES GA
   WITHIN NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ISOLATED...MRGLLY SEVERE HAIL ALSO HAS BEEN
   REPORTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY IN PAST 1-2 HOURS. MESOCIRCULATIONS
   WITHIN BOW/LEWP FEATURES WILL POSE THREAT FOR TORNADOES AS WELL.
   00Z TLH RAOB AND LATEST VWP FROM SERN AL SHOW FAVORABLE SHEAR
   PROFILES CONTINUING...WITH 0-1 KM SRH OVER 500 J/KG AND 70-80 KT OF
   -6 KM SHEAR AT EOX RADAR SITE. STABLE LAYERS AROUND 700 MB -- PER
   TLH RAOB -- LIMIT BUOYANCY BUT CAN BE OVERCOME BY STRONG CONVECTIVE
   SCALE FORCING ABOVE LEADING EDGE OF EXISTING LINE SEGMENTS AND BOWS.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 03/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
   
   31138823 31918744 32358581 32668508 32768468 32718402
   32648366 32368312 31948268 31428253 30928269 30738362
   30578458 30018508 29658528 29668538 29868531 30048559
   30278613 30418678 30338719 30258784 30248823

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0340
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1009 PM CST MON MAR 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN GA...CENTRAL/SRN AL...FL
   PANHANDLE.
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 105...
   
   VALID 210409Z - 210615Z
   
   TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING ATTM.  FORMERLY SEVERE
   BOW ECHO...WHICH PRODUCED MEASURED 51 KT GUST AT LSF AT 0233Z...HAS
   MOVED INTO STABLE AIR ON NE SIDE OF WARM FRONT AND WEAKENED
   CONSIDERABLY.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH ERN AL/WRN GA
   CONVECTION IS MOVING SEWD ABOUT 25 KT ACROSS S-CENTRAL/SWRN GA ON
   BOTH SIDES OF WARM FRONT.  GIVEN COOLING INFLOW LAYER AND
   ORIENTATION OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH RESPECT TO MEAN FLOW...PRIND
   ADDITIONAL TSTMS FORMING ALONG BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE OVER MORE STABLE
   AIR SOON THEREAFTER.
   
   CLUSTER OF TSTMS NOW OVER CENTRAL AL IS SUPPORTED BY ELEVATED WAA
   REGIME BEHIND INITIAL CONVECTIVE BAND...WITH MODIFIED MODEL
   SOUNDINGS SHOWING MUCAPES 500-1000 J/KG BASED NEAR 850 MB.  THIS
   ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ROOTED ABOVE SFC AS IT MOVES ENEWD TOWARD
   WRN/CENTRAL GA THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z...WITH BACKBUILDING PSBL TOWARD
   MS/AL BORDER.  MOST VIGOROUS EMBEDDED CELLS MAY PRODUCE MRGLLY SVR
   HAIL AND STRONG GUSTS...AMIDST 50-60 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 03/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
   
   31878828 32998810 33358543 33218444 32898397 32768356
   32598334 32348325 31948298 31578282 31178291 30818372
   30548411 30268461 29658528 29668538 29738552 30048559
   30668617 31238671 31318711 31208747 31398779

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0341
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1130 PM CST MON MAR 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN IL...CENTRAL/SRN IND...NRN/ERN KY...SRN
   OH
   
   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
   
   VALID 210530Z - 211030Z
   
   MOD/HVY SNOW WITH ISOLATED THUNDERS NOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
   ESEWD FROM SRN/CENTRAL IA INTO CENTRAL IL...CENTRAL IND AND SWRN OH
   OVER THE NEXT 6 HRS. FURTHER SOUTH...MIXED PRECIP IN THE FORM OF
   SLEET/SNOW AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP EWD FROM THE STL
   METRO AREA ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN IL INTO SRN IND AND NRN/ERN KY
   THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HRLY PRECIP RATES OVER 0.10 IN LIQUID
   ARE LIKELY.
   
   RECENT IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF CLOUD TOP COOLING
   OCCURRING OVER IA INTO WRN IL. THIS COOLING WAS EVIDENT OF STRONG
   UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET LOCATED OVER THE
   OZARKS. COMBINED WITH FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE 600-700 MB
   LAYER...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR HEAVY SNOW WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS
   MUCH OF CENTRAL IL/IND INTO SWRN OH THE REST OF TONIGHT. IN
   ADDITION...SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED
   THUNDERS NOW  WITH LOCALLY 2 IN/HR SNOWFALL RATES.
   
   FURTHER SOUTH...STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA WILL SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF
   PRECIP OVER SERN MO/SRN IL ENEWD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
   ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALL OF THE OHIO VALLEY WERE ABOVE
   FREEZING AT 05Z...CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AT LOW LEVELS OVER THE
   UPPER OHIO VALLEY COMBINED WITH WET-BULB EFFECTS WITH ONSET OF
   PRECIP SHOULD AID IN SUB-FREEZING SFC TEMPERATURES OVER PORTIONS OF
   NRN KY...MOST OF SRN OHIO AND SRN IND BY 12Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   SHOW THE PRESENCE OF AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER OVER PORTIONS OF NRN/ERN
   KY AND FAR SRN OH/SWRN IND...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
   AS THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPES.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 03/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...
   
   40878896 41129037 40139112 39489083 38728976 38558778
   38238532 37838432 37868307 38748212 39518227 40008411
   40338617

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0342
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1151 PM CST MON MAR 20 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL GA AND S-CENTRAL THROUGH E-CENTRAL
   AL
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL
   
   VALID 210551Z - 210815Z
   
   ADDITIONAL TSTM FORMATION OVER S-CENTRAL AL...INVOF MGM...WILL
   PERSIST FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS...RESULTING IN TRAINING OF
   HEAVY PRECIP CORES NEAR AN AXIS FROM MGM NEWD THROUGH AUO AREA...AND
   AS FAR NE AS I-20 IN EASTERN GA.  REPEATED PASSAGE OF CORES WITH
   RATES TO NEAR 2.5 INCHES/HOUR IS EXPECTED.
   
   HEAVY TSTMS ALREADY ARE UNDERWAY IN REGIME OF ELEVATED WAA...LOCATED
   IN NRN PORTION OF MOISTURE RICH 40-50 KT LLJ...IN ENVIRONMENT OF
   AROUND 1.5 INCH PW.  MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE ELEVATED
   MUCAPES 500-1000 J/KG...DIMINISHING WITH NEWD EXTENT...AND ROOTED
   NEAR 850 MB LEVEL.  60-70 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR PROFILES INDICATE
   POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED/ELEVATED SUPERCELLS AS WELL...WHICH WOULD
   LOCALLY ENHANCE HEAVY RAIN THREAT AND ALSO YIELD POTENTIAL FOR
   MRGLLY SVR HAIL.  ALIGNMENT OF MAIN BAND OF ELEVATED ASCENT SHOULD
   REMAIN NEARLY PARALLEL WITH DEEP-LAYER MEAN FLOW...INDICATING
   POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ECHOES WILL PERSIST A FEW MORE HOURS.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 03/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CAE...FFC...BMX...MOB...
   
   32978587 33338481 33688327 33508252 33108309 32408504
   32058705

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0343
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0449 AM CST TUE MAR 21 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL/FL PANHANDLE/SWRN GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 211049Z - 211215Z
   
   ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED ACROSS SERN AL/FL PANHANDLE AND INTO
   SWRN GA THIS MORNING.
   
   REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A RECENT /SINCE 0930Z/ INCREASE IN
   THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY FROM SERN AL SWWD INTO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE.
   THIS ACTIVITY WAS DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE LOW OVER
   SERN AL AND ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT...AND WITHIN AN
   INSTABILITY AXIS.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A LOW AMPLITUDE
   SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW LOCATED ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
   TRACKING TOWARD THE ENE.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE
   SHOULD FURTHER AID ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS
   THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT SPREAD EWD INTO SRN GA AND THE
   ERN FL PANHANDLE BY MID-LATE MORNING.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES
   SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS...WITH PERSISTENT ROTATION INDICATED WITH
   THE STORM TRACKING EWD ACROSS WRN FL PANHANDLE FROM NRN PARTS OF
   OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTIES DURING THE LAST HALF HOUR. 
   
   SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE NERN GULF
   COAST REGION SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED /DECREASING BY MID-MORNING/ AS
   STRONG MASS CONVERGENCE FOCUSES ALONG THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST WHERE
   CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDERWAY BY THAT TIME PERIOD.
   
   ..PETERS.. 03/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
   
   30348705 31518615 32198557 32328438 31848339 30578309
   29618358 29528515

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0344
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0510 AM CST TUE MAR 21 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL IL...CENTRAL/SRN IND....SRN OH...NERN
   KY...WV AND NRN/WRN VA
   
   CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION
   
   VALID 211110Z - 211715Z
   
   HEAVY SNOW WILL DIMINISH OVER CENTRAL IL BY 14Z AND OVER CENTRAL IND
   BY 17Z. MEANWHILE...HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SRN OH THROUGH
   14Z...OVER NRN/CENTRAL WV BETWEEN 13-15Z...AND OVER NRN VA AFTER
   15Z. HRLY SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A 2-3 HR
   PERIOD IN THESE AREAS. IN ADDITION THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A MIX
   OF SNOW/SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVER NERN KY...WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP
   EWD INTO PORTIONS OF SRN WV/SWRN VA THROUGH THE MORNING.
   
   AS AN UPPER JET MAX MOVES INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS
   MORNING...A WELL DEVELOPED DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
   EWD FROM IL/IND INTO OH AND WV. IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE
   AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER OH AND NRN KY INDICATING THAT THIS
   DEFORMATION ZONE CONTINUES TO MATURE. WITHIN THIS DEFORMATION
   ZONE...MODERATE TO HVY SNOW WITH HRLY RATES OVER 1 INCH HAVE BEEN
   OBSERVED. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE...WITH HVY SNOW DEVELOPING INTO
   SRN OH AND CENTRAL WV THROUGH 15Z...AND INTO NRN VA BETWEEN 15-17Z.
   BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY...THE BACK EDGE OF THE HEAVY SNOW SHOULD
   FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF A WELL DEFINED VORT MAX AS IT MOVES FROM
   SCENTRAL IL INTO ECENTRAL IND BY 17Z.
   
   IN ADDITION TO THE HVY SNOW...A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET WILL
   REMAIN LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF NRN/ERN KY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
   WEAK SFC COLD ADVECTION OCCURS BENEATH STRONG ELEVATED WARM
   ADVECTION. THIS THERMAL PROFILE WILL SPREAD EWD INTO PORTIONS OF SRN
   WV...AND SWRN VA THROUGH 15Z.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 03/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...
   
   39057793 39588122 40108357 40408616 40488851 39888959
   39088942 38868848 39018628 38538458 37978377 37758277
   37528120 37048072 37007960 37357821 38527716

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0345
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0853 AM CST TUE MAR 21 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN FL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 211453Z - 211630Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO
   WILL EXIST THROUGH 17Z OVER FAR NERN FL.  GIVEN THE SMALL SPATIAL
   AND TEMPORAL NATURE OF THIS THREAT...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   AS OF 1448Z...JAX RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
   SEVERE TSTM OVER COLUMBIA AND BAKER COUNTIES MOVING 260/35-40 KTS.
   THIS STORM HAS EXHIBITED SOME MID-LEVEL ROTATION AS IT MOVES THROUGH
   AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES OF 500 J/KG /PER
   MODIFICATION OF 12Z JAX SOUNDING/ AND RELATIVELY STRONG LOW AND
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.  EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT MOTION WILL TAKE THIS
   STORM RELATIVELY CLOSE TO JAX BETWEEN 1530 AND 1600Z...PRIOR TO
   MOVING OFF THE COAST.
   
   GIVEN THAT CYCLOGENESIS IS IN PROGRESS OFF THE SC COAST...AND THAT
   LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY VEERED WITH TIME...CURRENT
   INDICATIONS ARE THAT ADDITIONAL STORMS OVER THE FL BIG BEND WILL
   LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS OWING TO THE WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE.
   
   ..MEAD.. 03/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAX...
   
   30318154 29978245 29928286 30508309 30798282 30868153

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0346
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1239 PM CST SAT MAR 25 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OR...SWRN ID...NRN NV
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 251839Z - 252045Z
   
   ...STRONG WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS ALONG ADVANCING COLD
   FRONT...
   
   LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA CONFIRMS EWD SHIFT OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
   THE SIERRAS INTO SERN OR/WRN NV WITH FOCUSED PRESSURE FALLS NOW
   EXTENDING INTO SRN ID/NRN NV.  LOWEST 3KM/BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES
   CONTINUE TO STEEPEN AND APPEAR MOSTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR WHAT MEAGER
   INSTABILITY EXISTS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT GIVEN MARGINAL MOISTURE.  IT
   APPEARS CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION AS VERY COLD
   UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND.  FORECAST PROFILES BECOME INCREASINGLY
   FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORM
   DOWNDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY AS LARGER SCALE SWLY FLOW DEEPENS AND
   INTENSIFIES IN THE WAKE OF THE WIND SHIFT.
   
   ..DARROW.. 03/25/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BOI...LKN...REV...
   
   42801847 43161707 43031489 41961481 41021696 40171860
   41891884

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0347
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0515 PM CST SAT MAR 25 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN ID...NRN NV...NWRN UT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 106...
   
   VALID 252315Z - 260045Z
   
   STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS BROKEN CONVECTIVE
   LINE MOVES INTO ERN PORTIONS OF WW 106.
   
   CONVECTIVE LINE WAS MOVING EAST AT AROUND 40KT AND WAS CURRENTLY
   SITUATED FROM 40 NNE BOI TO 45 ENE OWY TO EKO TO 40 NW U31. ONLY
   SPORADIC CG LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ALONG THE LINE WAS EVIDENCE OF VERY
   LIMITED INSTABILITY. NONETHELESS...FOCUSED ASCENT ALONG ADVANCING
   LARGER SCALE FRONTAL ZONE...AND STRONG KINEMATICS WITH NEARLY 60KT
   OF FLOW AT 700MB...SHOULD PARTIALLY OFFSET LIMITED INSTABILITY.  AS
   LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION MOVES EAST ACROSS WARM/DRY BOUNDARY LAYER A
   FEW STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS REMAIN POSSIBLE LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO PARTS OF NWRN UT THROUGH 01Z BUT
   LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER WATCH MAY NOT BE NECESSARY.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 03/25/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN...REV...
   
   40111432 39071688 40031771 42621645 43931664 44211657
   44371515 44041157 41991216 41961394

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0348
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0349 PM CST MON MAR 27 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SW TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 272149Z - 272315Z
   
   ISOLATED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TX
   BIG BEND REGION /VICINITY OF BREWSTER COUNTY/ DURING THE NEXT
   SEVERAL HOURS.
   
   VIS IMAGERY/MID AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT HAD
   MOVED SWD INTO SW TX AND AT 21Z EXTENDED FROM JUST SOUTH OF SJT WWD
   INTO REEVES COUNTY.  ELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE
   WWD INTO THE LOWER TRANS PECOS REGION WHERE SURFACE HEATING OVER THE
   HIGHER TERRAIN OF BREWSTER COUNTY HAS AIDED IN WEAKENING THE CIN FOR
   RECENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER/NEAR THE GLASS MOUNTAINS.
   SBCAPE 500-1000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT SUGGEST A
   FEW STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL...LOCALLY EXCEEDING
   SEVERE LEVELS.
   
   ..PETERS.. 03/27/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...
   
   29360294 29960377 30720390 31010343 31000221 30370137
   29610135 29650220

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0349
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1240 PM CST TUE MAR 28 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
   
   CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   
   VALID 281840Z - 282015Z
   
   WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.
   
   DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS
   THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO HEATING BENEATH MID-LEVEL COLD
   POOL ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH.  MODELS SUGGEST STRONGER
   MID-LEVEL COOLING WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF
   SAN FRANCISCO SHORTLY...AND INTO THE LOWER SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY BY
   EARLY AFTERNOON...IN EXIT REGION OF VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL JET STILL
   OFFSHORE.  AS THIS OCCURS...AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO
   WARM WITH INSOLATION...DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
   SUPPORTIVE OF INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS BOUNDARY LAYER BASED
   THUNDERSTORMS.
   
   SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH MID-LEVEL JET AXIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AT
   LEAST BRIEF UPDRAFT ROTATION.  THIS COULD ENHANCE RISK FOR AN
   ISOLATED TORNADO...PARTICULARLY TOWARD 20-21Z ACROSS THE LOWER SAN
   JOAQUIN VALLEY...WHERE OROGRAPHY IS CONTRIBUTING TO BACKED/
   SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND LARGER LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS.
   OTHERWISE...GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HAIL APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY
   EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS.
   
   ..KERR.. 03/28/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...STO...MTR...
   
   37662249 38542194 39022176 38812059 37421976 36801984
   35882026 35172111