Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather will prevail until mid week.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
430 AM AST SUN OCT 9 2011

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS A MID UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIR MASS DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER REGIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND KEEP A FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON SHOWERS
STILL EXPECTED EACH DAY DUE TO AVAILABLE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST A GRADUAL DECREASE ON
PWAT VALUES...WITH BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT...SHIFTING TOWARD A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO... ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE ISLAND AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA TODAY. THEN...EXPECT MOST OF
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON MON-TUE. AN EASTERLY DISTURBANCE AND
ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY
WEDNESDAY...INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...A SLIM CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON TSRA WITH MVFR CIGS AT
JBQ TODAY OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS WITH
NO SIG WX NEXT FIVE DAYS. WINDS 10 KT OR LESS DURING THE DAY WITH
AN ONSHORE COMPONENT DUE TO SEA BREEZE THEN BCMNG LIGHT/VRB AFTER
SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...LONG PERIOD NORTH SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE
LOCAL WATERS AND ALL PASSAGES TODAY BEFORE SUBSIDING ON MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN AFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 88 78 / 10 0 20 20
STT 88 79 88 79 / 10 10 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST SUN OCT 9 2011

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS A MID UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIR MASS DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER REGIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ONCE AGAIN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS
LIMITED TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA. A CU
LINE DEVELOPED OVER EL YUNQUE AND SPREAD WEST NORTH WEST OVER THE
SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE
BEFORE SUNSET AS THE ABSENCE OF ANY MID TO UPPER FEATURE THAT WILL
MAINTAIN THE ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT.

MODELS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST A DECREASE ON PWAT VALUES...WITH BEST
MOISTURE. A MORE EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...
ESPECIALLY THE WEST AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND AS WELL
AS PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND TEMPO SHRA/TSRA OVER
TJBQ...TJMZ AND TJSJ AFTER 09/18Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY
FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 KTS OR LESS WITH SOME SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...ALTHHOUGH THE BUOY 410053 IS SHOWING A SLIGHT DECREASE ON
THE WAVE HEIGHT IN THE LAST FEW HOURS...THE BUOY 41045 REPORTED
WAVE HEIGHTS PEAKING EARLIER THIS MORNING THEREFORE WE SHOULD SEE
THE NEAR SHORE BUOY WILL ONCE AGAIN REPORT SCA CONDITIONS BEFORE SUNSET.
AFTER TONIGHT SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TUESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 88 77 87 / 0 20 20 20
STT 77 88 77 87 / 10 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Tropical Wave will move into the Eastern Caribbean later today and tonight bringing scattered showers to the region.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
332 AM AST MON OCT 10 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WX
FEATURE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 58W TO
THE EAST OF BARBADOS WILL MOVE INTO THE ERN CARIB TONIGHT. LIGHT
TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN AN OVERALL
SUBSIDENT PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FOREESABLE FUTURE WITH
WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE THE MAIN TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION.
LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE TODAY PER BLENDED TPW PRODUCT SO EXPECT
LESS CVRG TODAY THAN YDAY.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 58W JUST EAST OF BARBADOS IS FCST TO FRACTURE
OFF WITH BULK OF THE MOISTURE REMAINING SOUTH. HOWEVER...MODELS
SHOW A MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TUE-WED TO
YIELD SCT-NMRS TSRA ACROSS THE WEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY
ERODES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS RIDGING REMAINS STRONG. SO
EXPECT A DECLINE IN AFTERNOON CVRG AFTER THU AND THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSRA WITH MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
IN AND AROUND TJMZ BTW 10/17Z-10/22Z. NO SIGNIFICANT FLYING HAZARDS
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST
AT 15 KTS OR LESS WITH SOME SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...NNE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
SEAS FCST TO DROP BELOW 7 FT BY THE END OF THE DAY. WILL LIKELY
EXTEND SCA FOR AMZ710 THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS THEN DROP TO 4
FEET OR LESS BY THU MORNING ALL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 78 87 78 / 20 20 20 60
STT 88 79 87 79 / 20 20 20 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
238 PM AST MON OCT 10 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 58W TO
THE EAST OF BARBADOS WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT.
LIGHT TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY LIMITED WEATHER HAS BEEN OBSERVED BY THE DOPPLER
RADAR. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO CU LINES BUT WITH LITTLE RAIN DEVELOPED OVER THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. SATELLITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING A SLIGHT INCREASE ON
MOISTURE...THIS WILL HELP DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN
COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A MID- UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN AN
OVERALL SUBSIDENT PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE THE MAIN TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND OVER
THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA..

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSRA WITH MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ BTW 10/18Z-10/23Z. A FEW VCSH/VCTS ARE
POSSIBLE AROUND TISX...TIST...TJSJ...AND TJPS AS A FEW SHOWERS
STREAM OFF THE USVI AND POSSIBLY EL YUNQUE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 10 KTS OR LESS WITH SOME SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...THE NORTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. AT THIS MOMENT NONE OF THE LOCAL BUOYS ARE
REPORTING SCA CONDITIONS...THEREFORE NO ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
FOR OUR LOCAL WATERS. WIND WAVES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS
EASTERLIES ARE EXPECTED TO ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
AFTER MID WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 87 77 86 / 20 30 60 60
STT 77 87 77 86 / 20 20 40 40

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Interesting part of discussion about the last part of October.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
327 AM AST TUE OCT 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WX
FEATURE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 60W WILL
MOVE SLOWLY WEST OVR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DESPITE MID UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS THAT THERE
WILL BE ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK
TO YIELD AT LEAST ISOLD-SCT AFTERNOON TSRA. CHANCES OF CONVECTION
WILL BE A BIT MORE ENHANCED ON WED DUE TO BETTER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSAGE A TROPICAL WAVE SO HAVE INCLUDED NMRS CVRG THAT DAY.
STEERING WINDS WILL BE MORE THE ENE TODAY AND WED WHEN COMPARED
TO PAST FEW DAYS WITH HIGHER PROBS THAT THE CONVECTION WILL AFFECT
THE SRN SLOPES AND SOUTH COAST RATHER THAN WEST/NORTHWEST PR.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY ERODES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS
MID-UPPER RIDGE REMAINS STRONG. TRADES ALSO STRENGTHEN AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ATLC. SHOULD SEE SUBSTANTIALLY
LESS CONVECTIVE CVRG SAT-SUN.

OP GFS AND GFES ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
FINALLY BREAKING DOWN BY NEXT TUE OCT 18 AS A SERIES OF POLAR
PERTURBATIONS ROTATING AROUND BASE OF ERN NOAM MEAN TROF ERODE THE
RIDGE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MID-UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND THUS BETTER CHANCES FOR DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE
LAST TEN DAYS OF OCT. INTERESTINGLY...A FEW GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SUGGEST TC FORMATION NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AROUND THE 19TH AND
LATEST CPC GLOBAL TROPICS BENEFITS/HAZARDS ASSESSMENT PAGE AND MJO
FORECASTS HAVE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN HIGHLIGHTED UNDER A
MODERATE CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS AND A HIGH CHANCE OF
ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL FOR WEEK-2. SO...AFTER A RATHER QUIET FIRST
HALF OF OCT THINGS LOOK TO TURN MORE EXCITING FOR THE END OF THE
MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED IN AND AROUND TJMZ/TJPS BTW 11/18Z-11/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FT XCPT 5 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. TRADES STRENGTHEN
LATER IN THE WEEK WITH SCEC LIKELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 86 76 / 20 20 20 30
STT 87 78 86 78 / 20 30 30 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
333 PM AST TUE OCT 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE EACH
DAY...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE PASSING
TROPICAL WAVE...TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE SOME
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. LOOKING AHEAD...MUCH DRIER AIR IS INDICATED FOR
SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5
FEET OR LESS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 86 76 87 / 20 20 30 30
STT 77 87 77 87 / 30 30 40 40

[Gustywind]

Good morning. Interesting part of discussion about the last part of October.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
327 AM AST TUE OCT 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WX
FEATURE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 60W WILL
MOVE SLOWLY WEST OVR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DESPITE MID UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS THAT THERE
WILL BE ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK
TO YIELD AT LEAST ISOLD-SCT AFTERNOON TSRA. CHANCES OF CONVECTION
WILL BE A BIT MORE ENHANCED ON WED DUE TO BETTER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSAGE A TROPICAL WAVE SO HAVE INCLUDED NMRS CVRG THAT DAY.
STEERING WINDS WILL BE MORE THE ENE TODAY AND WED WHEN COMPARED
TO PAST FEW DAYS WITH HIGHER PROBS THAT THE CONVECTION WILL AFFECT
THE SRN SLOPES AND SOUTH COAST RATHER THAN WEST/NORTHWEST PR.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY ERODES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS
MID-UPPER RIDGE REMAINS STRONG. TRADES ALSO STRENGTHEN AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ATLC. SHOULD SEE SUBSTANTIALLY
LESS CONVECTIVE CVRG SAT-SUN.

OP GFS AND GFES ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
FINALLY BREAKING DOWN BY NEXT TUE OCT 18 AS A SERIES OF POLAR
PERTURBATIONS ROTATING AROUND BASE OF ERN NOAM MEAN TROF ERODE THE
RIDGE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MID-UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND THUS BETTER CHANCES FOR DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE
LAST TEN DAYS OF OCT. INTERESTINGLY...A FEW GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SUGGEST TC FORMATION NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AROUND THE 19TH AND
LATEST CPC GLOBAL TROPICS BENEFITS/HAZARDS ASSESSMENT PAGE AND MJO
FORECASTS HAVE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN HIGHLIGHTED UNDER A
MODERATE CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS AND A HIGH CHANCE OF
ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL FOR WEEK-2. SO...AFTER A RATHER QUIET FIRST
HALF OF OCT THINGS LOOK TO TURN MORE EXCITING FOR THE END OF THE
MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED IN AND AROUND TJMZ/TJPS BTW 11/18Z-11/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FT XCPT 5 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. TRADES STRENGTHEN
LATER IN THE WEEK WITH SCEC LIKELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 86 76 / 20 20 20 30
STT 87 78 86 78 / 20 30 30 40

Let's keep an eye on as usual we never know... interresting discussion.

[Macrocane]

Yesterday and today have been the rainiest days of the year in El Salvador, orange alert has been declared and there have been some floods and mudslides that affected 1500 people fortunately no deaths have been reported yet. In Guatemala orange alert has been declared too but no deaths reported. In Nicaragua there have been 2 deaths and hundreds of people have been affected by flooding.

These map shows yesterday rainfall in El Salvador in mm (tomorrow I will post the rainfall registered today):

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
454 AM AST WED OCT 12 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FROM THE EAST CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY
DRY AND STABLE LOCAL UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. IN THE LOW LEVELS...
A LIGHT TO MODERATE WIND PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION...
AS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SUGGESTS THAT THE AXIS OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE WAS NOW BETWEEN EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS
MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARDS DURING THE REST OF THE
DAY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN AN OVERALL SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AS THE ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION AND THE PREVAILING EASTERLIES
ONCE AGAIN WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT WEATHER FACTOR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY...FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SURROUNDING
WATERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND OVER LAND DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE REGION LATER TODAY WHILE IT CONTINUES
TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVER LAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS AIDING IN SHOWER AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. SO FAR THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL SHOULD BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO BASED ON THE PRESENT WIND FLOW. BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND... EXCEPT DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. FOR NOW...LOOKING
FOR MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND SUNNY SKIES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WITH MOSTLY DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN SOME ISOLATED
SPOTS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH ABOUT 12/14Z WITH PASSING SHOWERS IN AND AROUND TNCM/TKPK...
TIST/TISX AND TJSJ. AN INCREASE IN SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR CIGS IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AFT 12/16Z. EXPECT WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AT 10 KTS WITH SOME SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 86 77 / 50 30 30 20
STT 87 78 87 78 / 40 40 40 20

[Macrocane]

SECOND RAINIEST DAY EVER IN EL SALVADOR

Yesterday was the 2nd wettest day in El Salvador's history, only tropical storm Agatha produced more rain in 24 hours. The wettest tropical cyclones (in 24 hours) are now:

1. Agatha 483 mm/19.01 inches May 29 2010
2. TD 12E 407 mm/16.02 inches October 11 2011
3. Mitch 375 mm/14.76 inches October 31 1998
4. Stan 320 mm/12.60 inches October 3 2005
5. Invest 96E 355 mm/13.98 inches November 8 2009
6. Fifi 299 mm/11.77 inches September 19 1974

This map shows the rainfall (in mm) registered from 7 am yesterday through 7 am today:

[Macrocane]

Guatemala has received lots of rain too, These are some rainfall amounts registered yesterday according to the INSIVUMEH (their weather service):

San Jose airport 307.7 mm/12.11 inches
Champerico 208 mm/8.19 inches
Montufar 246 mm/9.69 inches
Mazatenango 141 mm/5.55 inches
Retalhuleu 120 mm/4.72 inches
Solola 112.4 mm/4.43 inches
Tecun Uman 106.4 mm/4.19 inches

[Gustywind]

Guatemala has received lots of rain too, These are some rainfall amounts registered yesterday according to the INSIVUMEH (their weather service):

San Jose airport 307.7 mm/12.11 inches
Champerico 208 mm/8.19 inches
Montufar 246 mm/9.69 inches
Mazatenango 141 mm/5.55 inches
Retalhuleu 120 mm/4.72 inches
Solola 112.4 mm/4.43 inches
Tecun Uman 106.4 mm/4.19 inches

impressive

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
344 PM AST WED OCT 12 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH LOCAL
EFFECTS TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. ASIDE FROM THIS...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
LOCALLY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY...PRODUCING A GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER PATTERN. HOWEVER...DESPITE A MUCH DRIER LOCAL AIR
MASS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND PROBABLY SUNDAY...THERE SHOULD
STILL BE ENOUGH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE EACH DAY...TO COMBINE
WITH LOCAL EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS...A FEW SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS 18 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6
FEET OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 87 76 87 / 40 40 20 10
STT 78 88 78 88 / 50 50 20 20

[cycloneye]

This image is in Guatemala,where at least 13 people have died as massive floodings are occuring.

[Macrocane]

TD 12E CAUSES DEATH AND DAMAGES IN GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR

The depression made landfall this afternoon but it is still producing rains. The total rainfall has reached near record levels and there have been floods and mudslides in Guatemala and El Salvador. This is a summary of the damages.

Guatemala
-20 people have died.
-32 000 people have been affected.
Link (in Spanish): http://www.prensalibre.com/noticias/lluvia-impacto-fallecidos_0_571142964.html

El Salvador
-3 deaths
-3100 people displaced
-2 damaged bridges
-35 fallen trees, 123 important mudslides, 21 rivers overflowed.
-Link (in Spanish-official ionformation): Protección Civil-El Salvador

A gallery of some of the damages in El Salvador: http://www.elsalvador.com/mwedh/nota/popGaleria.asp?idArt=6285475&idcat=47673#leaf

[cycloneye]

My condolenses to the families of the victims in this tragedy. This proves once again that rain is the #1 cause for disasters. Here in PR,we have been thru that many times.

[Macrocane]

Yes, that's true cycloneye, and the worst of it it's that more rain is expected especially on the weekend and next week I will keep you updated.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
333 AM AST THU OCT 13 2011

.SYNOPSIS....MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXTEND NORTHWARDS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THEN INTO THE
WEST ATLANTIC. THIS HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE SEPARATES A TUTT LOW LOCATED
JUST SOUTHWEST OD HISPANIOLA AND A DEEPENING TUTT LOCATED JUST
EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. LITTLE SYNOPTIC CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND UNDER THIS PATTERN THE LOCAL AREA IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN ON THE CONVERGENT/SUBSIDENT SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE. TROPICAL
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED TRAILING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND EXIT THE AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE ALONG THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA UNDER THE PREVAILING SOUTHEAST WIND
FLOW. THIS AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH LOCAL
AND DIURNAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND
FEW TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE ISLANDS TODAY WITH A
GRADUAL DRYING TREND FORECAST FOR THE WEEK. EXPECT THE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEREFORE
REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE. AS A RESULT...EXPECT GRADUAL
DRIER AND STABLE CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH AN OVERALL FAIR
AND SUNNY WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY OR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...DESPITE THESE OVERALL CONDITIONS...STILL EXPECT EARLY
MORNING PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS AND FEW TO ISOLATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION EACH DAY OVER PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. SOME OF THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...BUT NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
FEATURE IS IN SIGHT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE GENERAL WIND
FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE EASTERLY BY FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 13/16Z. HOWEVER...BRIEF PDS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS TIST AND TISX IN SHRA. AFTER 13/16Z...
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE LOCAL ISLAND EFFECTS AND
DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SHRA AND TSRA WHICH WILL LEAD TO TEMPO
MVFR CONDS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS TJSJ...TJPS... TJMZ...AND
TJBQ TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 13/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT SUBSIDING SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS TODAY...HOWEVER
INCREASING EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 88 77 / 40 20 10 10
STT 87 77 88 78 / 50 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF EAST
PACIFIC TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E...EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND IS
PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
WHILE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND GUATEMALA AS THIS SYSTEM REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Gustywind]

Here is today an interresting discussion of our daily newspaper " FranceAntilles". Let's wait and see... keeping our fingers crossed for the Lesser Antilles as the season is not really ended .

CYCLONES: THE WORST MAY BE AHEAD
B.C.
http://www.guadeloupe.franceantilles.fr ... 142190.php

Professor William M. Gray of the University of Colorado issues, for the first time, a special ballot of end of the season. Conditions remain very favorable to the formation of late cyclones